1. European Space Weather Week 11
Confronting the AP9/AE9 Radiation Belt Models with Spacecraft Data and Other Models
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
D.Heynderickx
DH Consultancy, Leuven, Belgium
P.R. Truscott
Kallisto Consultancy, Farnborough, UK
ESA Contract No /13/NL/AK
ESA Technical Officers
H. Evans, E.J. Daly
European Space Weather Week 11

2. European Space Weather Week 11
Context
Concern in European space industry about higher fluxes (and thus doses) predicted by AP9/AE9
Analysis of differences with other models
Implementation in SPENVIS
User education
Recommendations for ECSS space environment standard
Feedback to the IRENE team of issues encountered during the analysis
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

3. European Space Weather Week 11
Comparison methods
Intercomparison of models
Run different models on a spacecraft trajectory set of points, for representative orbits (LEO, MEO, GTO, GEO)
Comparison of trajectory fluences
Comparison of fluences used in radiation effects models (TID, NIEL, solar cell degradation)
Comparisons of model fluxes to spacecraft data
Run models on the trajectory data in the various datasets, for the energy bins of the instruments.
Compare time series and fluence spectra.
Try to account for anisotropy effects in LEO.
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

4. Test scenarios: generic trajectories
Geostationary at longitudes 75°, 180° and 285°
Comparison with AP/AE-8, IGE
GTO: inc 5°, perigee 300 km, apogee 36,000 km
Comparison with AP/AE-8, CRRESELE, CRRESPRO
MEO (Galileo GNSS): circular, altitude 23,222 km, inc 56°
MEO (GPS): altitude 20,200 km
Comparison with AP/AE-8, CRRESPRO, CRRESELE, MEO-V1/2
Sun-synchronous: altitude 800 km (inc 98.6°)
Comparison with AP/AE-8
Large Observatory for X-ray Timing (LOFT): circular, altitude 600 km
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

5. European Space Weather Week 11
SSO Proton spectra
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

6. European Space Weather Week 11
SSO Electron spectra
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

7. SSO SHIELDOSE-2: protons
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

8. SSO SHIELDOSE-2: e-, Bremsstrahlung
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

9. European Space Weather Week 11
GEO electron flux
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

10. MEO (GPS) electron flux
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

11. Test scenarios: datasets
Procedure:
Convert spacecraft ephemeris to SPENVIS and IRENE trajectory file format (identical for GDZ except for shift in MJD)
Run models using the instrument energy channels
Compare orbit evolution plus trajectory fluence spectra
Datasets:
CRRES/MEA: 110 keV – 1.6 MeV electrons
AZUR/EI-88: 1.5–104 MeV protons
Giove-B/SREM: calibrated electron channels
Integral/SREM: calibrated electron channels
SAMPEX/PET: 19–500 MeV protons
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

12. European Space Weather Week 11
AZUR data selection
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

13. European Space Weather Week 11
AZUR data comparison
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

14. AZUR mission comparison
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

15. CRRES/MEA data selection
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

16. CRRES/MEA: quiet conditions
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

17. CRRES/MEA: active conditions
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

18. CRRES/MEA: active spectra
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

19. Giove-B/SREM: active spectra
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

20. European Space Weather Week 11
Conclusions (1)
More analysis is needed to compare the models to longer time averages of the datasets.
GEO environment
AE-8 and AE-9 Mean are comparable, AE-9 extends the energy range (needs evaluation).
IGE2006 (ECSS model) is (much) lower.
High energy flux predictions need further evaluation in view of updates of ECSS
Are longitudinal effects important?
LEO
AP-9 overestimates the extent of the SAA region.
AP-9 overestimates below ~70 MeV and underestimates above.
AE-9 is consistently higher than AE-8 except for >1.5 MeV
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

21. European Space Weather Week 11
Conclusions (2)
MEO
MEOV2 mean is lower than AE-9 mean, MEOV2 upper is in good agreement with AE-9 90%.
High energy component needs further evaluation. Until then, AE-8/MAX can be used in this region.
Pending long term model to data comparisons, the ECSS recommendation (MEOV2) can be maintained.
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11

22. European Space Weather Week 11
Recommendations
A more in-depth analysis is needed to evaluate the models (IRENE and other) with longer time averages of spacecraft data.
Construct (omni-)directional flux maps from AZUR/EI-88 and SAMPEX/PET proton data
Analyse PROBA-V/EPT data
Analysis of the high energy electron spectrum
Ingest AZUR/EI-88, SAMPEX/PET and RBSP/REPT/MAGEIS data into the IRENE models.
Provide more detailed information on the construction of the IRENE models.
Review the usage of the confidence level and Monte Carlo versions of the models.
20 Nov 2014, Liège, Belgium
European Space Weather Week 11