1. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent.

2. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

3.  Foresight forecasts provide decision support  Start with evidence-based baseline forecasts  Expected scenario will likely not occur – so don’t seek a perfect statistical model – directionally correct (based on evidence) is the goal  Uncertain disruptions knock the future off the baseline  Creatively developed scenarios are the payoff © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

5. Source: Get There Early, Bob Johansen Unleash the power of Creative Thinking INSIGHT © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

6. What is Jump Assoc.’s value proposition? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

7. What is Jump Assoc.’s value proposition? http://www.jumpassociates.com/wp-content/themes/jumpsite60/pdf/jumpfactsheet.pdf © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

8. The Deep Dive http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M66ZU2PCIcM © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

9.  “The best way to get a good idea is to get a lot of ideas” Linus Pauling  Divergent Thinking vs. Convergent Thinking © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

10. 1.Defer Judgment 2.Build on the ideas of others 3.Stay focused on the topic 4.One conversation at a time 5.Encourage wild ideas 6.Go for quantity 7.Be visual IDEO’s Rules for Brainstorming © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

11.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NugRZGDbPFU&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NugRZGDbPFU&feature=related © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

12. Identify a lot of implications Change 1 st Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

13. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F_S RwrCF6Q&list=PLE556938047986587 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

14. May Solve Problem A May Worsen Situation B May Produce New Opportunity C May Create Entirely New Problem D © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

15. Explore for Opportunities Change 1 st Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication Create Collisions © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

16. Source: The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century, Global Business Network, May 2008 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

17. Much activity, primarily military, and dominantly destinational for resource extraction Unilateral governance regimes lead to inconsistent infrastructure with incompatible standards Seasonal trans-Arctic passage possible, but not permitted politically © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

18. “Arctic Race” Incompatible standards Trans-Arctic passage not permitted politically Increased extraction activity © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

19. “Arctic Race” Incompatible standards Trans-Arctic passage not permitted politically Increased extraction activity Less Stable Resource Supply Strange New Internat’l Alliances Environmental Damage © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

20. “Arctic Race” Incompatible compliance standards Trans-Arctic passage blocked by stakeholder Increased extraction activity Less Stable Resource Supply Strange New Internat’l Alliances Environmental Damage Ecological Restoration Projects Legal & Reg Compliance Needs Rapid Disaster Response © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

21. “Arctic Race” Incompatible standards Trans-Arctic passage blocked by stakeholder Increased extraction activity Less Stable Resource Supply Strange New Internat’l Alliances Environmental Damage Vertical Integration Development of Alternative Materials Purchasing Contract Hedges © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

22. “Arctic Race” Incompatible standards Trans-Arctic passage blocked by stakeholder Increased extraction activity Less Stable Resource Supply Strange New Internat’l Alliances Environmental Damage Vertical Integration Development of Alternative Materials Purchasing Contract Hedges Increased Compliance Complexity Trade Conflict Regional Pacts Emerge Incr. in Value of Compliance More Legal Disputes © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

23. Vertical Integration Ecological Restoration Projects High Impact Co’s Create Restoration Subsidiaries Incr. in Value of Compliance © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

24. “Even a forecast that never happens is worthwhile if it provokes insight for you.” Bob Johansen Institute For The Future © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

25.  STEP 1 – DIVERGE  Develop a futures wheel around one of your scenarios  20 minutes  STEP 2 – CONVERGE  Collide 2 nd and 3 rd order implications  Describe the resulting opportunities  Rinse, Repeat  20 minutes  Report out at end of session © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

26. Quiz #3 on ___________ Review Session TBD Review Sheet is Posted © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

27.  Draft Foresight Report – Due ______________  Peer Reviews of Draft Foresight Report – Due ______________ © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.