1. PRIMARY CARE 2025 Yasemin Arikan Institute for Alternative Futures September 20, 2013

2. Agenda Intro to Futures Studies, Aspirational Futures Explore Four Primary Care 2025 Futures Robust Strategies for a Preferred Future 2 out of 30

3. INTRO TO FUTURES STUDIES AND ASPIRATIONAL FUTURES 3 out of 30

4. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 4 out of 30

5. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 5 out of 30

6. Aspirational Futures Approach 6 out of 30

7. FOUR PRIMARY CARE 2025 SCENARIOS 7 out of 30

8. 1.Many Needs, Many Models 2.Lost Decade, Lost Health 3.Primary Care That Works for All 4.I Am My Own Medical Home 8 out of 30

9. SCENARIO 1: MANY NEEDS, MANY MODELS 9 out of 30

10. Scenario 1: Many Needs, Many Models Key Outcomes 40% in integrated systems 30% in semi-integrated 30% in fee-for service 10 out of 30

11. 11 out of 30

12. 12 out of 30

13. SCENARIO 2: LOST DECADE, LOST HEALTH 13 out of 30

14. Scenario 2: Lost Decade, Lost Health Key Outcomes 35% in fee-for-service 30% in integrated systems 20% in semi-integrated 15% in concierge fee-for-service 14 out of 30

15. But Web MD clearly indicated that I am dying. 15 out of 30

16. 16 out of 30

17. SCENARIO 3: PRIMARY CARE THAT WORKS FOR ALL 17 out of 30

18. Scenario 3: Primary Care That Works for All Key Outcomes 85% in integrated systems (e.g., CCHH) 10% in “concierge” FFS 5% are uninsured 18 out of 30

19. 19 out of 30

20. 20 out of 30

21. SCENARIO 4: I AM MY OWN MEDICAL HOME 21 out of 30

22. Scenario 4: I Am My Own Medical Home Key Outcomes 40% in self-care with high-deductible catastrophic insurance 40% in integrated systems 10% in concierge care 10% are uninsured 22 out of 30

23. 23 out of 30

24. 24 out of 30

25. Likelihood vs. Preferability LP Scenario #1 Many Needs, Many Models __ % Scenario #2 Lost Decade, Lost Health __ % Scenario #3 Primary Care that Works for All __ % Scenario #4 I Am My Own Medical Home __ % 25 out of 30

26. ROBUST STRATEGIES FOR A PREFERRED FUTURE 26 out of 30

27. Enable osteopathic principles and practitioners to demonstrate their particular value for quality and cost-effective care for all. Engage with the development of self-care tools, particularly their decision-making rules. Determine your role in improving population health and provide training and support accordingly. 27 out of 30

28. QUESTIONS? 28 out of 30

29. Community Health Centers Leveraging the Social Determinants of Health www.altfutures.org/LeveragingSDH Primary Care 2025 www.altfutures.org/primarycare2025 29 out of 30

30. Yasemin Arikan Institute for Alternative Futures www.altfutures.org yarikan@altfutures.org Thank you! 30 out of 30