1. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Current status and outlook on international bioenergy markets and trade: exporters, importers and consequences for logistics Bulk Port, Terminals and Logistics 2012, 20th - 22nd May 2012, Mövenpick Hotel, Amsterdam, The Netherlands André Faaij Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40 CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN

2. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Biomass & bioenergy flows according to IEA + other refs (2008) [IPCC- SRREN, 2011]

3. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management (Source: Sikkema et al.,Bio FPR 2011 in IPCC, 2011) Global wood pellet trade 2009 1 PJ = 60,000 tonnes

4. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management (Source: Lamers, RSER, 2011 in IPCC, 2011) Global biofuels production and main international trade 2009

5. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management European pellet markets N. America (ocean ships) 2 1 4 Bulk large scale power Bulk medium DH&CHP Bulk pellets households Pellets in bags households Major exporters 2 4 1 3 3 NE Europe (coasters) Central Europe (trucks) [Sikkema et al, BioFPR, 2011]

6. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Global production and trade of the major biomass commodities (2008) Mton in 2008 BioethanolBiodieselWood pellets Global production52.910.611.5 Global net trade3.72 (*)2.92Approx. 4 Main exportersBrazilUS, Argentina, Indonesia Malaysia Canada,USA, Baltic countries, Finland, Russia Main importersUSA, Japan, EU Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Italy (*) An estimated 75% of the traded bioethanol is used as transport fuel. [Heinimö & Junginger, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2009]

7. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Phases in bio-energy use and market development… 1.Waste treatment and process residues; use on site, low costs. 2.Local use of (more expensive) forest and agricultural residues; some infrastructure development. 3.Regional biomass markets, larger scale utilisation, increasingly complex logistics; supportive policies needed. 4.National markets with complex set of suppliers and buyers; often increased availability. 5.Increasing scale, cross-border flows; role for cultivated biomass; bilateral activities. 6.Global commodity market; pricing mechanisms; complex interlinkages with existing markets (food, forestry, feedstocks) [Faaij, Energy Policy, 2006]

8. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management 2050 Bioenergy Potentials & Deployment Levels 2008 Global Energy Total Chapter 2 Possible Deployment Levels 2011 IPCC Review* Land Use 3 and 5 million km 2 Chapter 10 Modelled Deployment Levels for CO2 Concentration Targets Past Literature Range of Technical Potentials 0-1500 EJ Global Primary Energy Supply, EJ/y 2008 Global Biomass Energy 2050 Global Energy AR4, 2007 2050 Global Biomass AR4, 2007 <440 ppm 440- 600 ppm Technical Potential 2050 Projections Minimum median 75 th Maximum 100 300 150 190 80 265 300 Technical Potential Based on 2008 Model and Literature Assessment 118 20 25 25 th Percentile 2000 Total Biomass Harvest for Food/Fodder/Fiber as Energy Content [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

9. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Global RE supply by source in Annex I (ANI) and Non-Annex I (NAI) countries in 164 long-term scenarios (2030 and 2050). Thick black line = median, Coloured box = 25th-75th percentile, Whiskers = total range across all reviewed scenarios. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

10. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Global primary energy supply of biomass in 164 long-term scenarios in 2020, 2030 and 2050, grouped by different categories of atmospheric CO2 concentration level in 2100 [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

11. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management IEA Biofuel Roadmap Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050 Large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels will be vital to meet the roadmap targets Final energy (EJ)

12. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Biofuel Production Costs 2010-50 Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements Advanced biofuels reach cost parity around 2030 in an optimistic case Production costs shown as untaxed retail price [IEA Biofuels Roadmap]

13. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Biomass supply and demand in 2020 [Hoefnagels et al, UU/Task 40, 2011]

14. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Simulated Biomass trade flows 2020 Low Import scenarioHigh Import scenario Year:20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 200920152020 (pellets)Low ImportHigh ImportLow ImportHigh Import Total trade (Mtoe)1.65.46.212.617.4 Total trade (Mt wood pellet eq.)*3.812142940 Of which Intra-EU55%38%32%52%32% Of which Inter-EU45%62%68%48%68% *) Mt eq. = million metric tonne pellet equivalent (18 MJ/kg) [Hoefnagels et al, UU/Task 40, 2011]

15. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management [IPCC-SRREN, 2011] Driving forces, dimensions, scales…

16. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Good news on criteria frameworks and frontline of debate: Debate has come to it’s senses a bit. Recognition that iLUC for biofuels alone is inconsistent: it is about management of land use. Spillover effect from biofuels (< 1% of land for food) to agriculture & livestock; COOL!!!. More attention for synergies (e.g.: Committee Corbey, Netherlands, 2010, GSB initiative, 2010)

17. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Overview and comparison of initiatives to guarantee sustainability of bioenergy Preliminary results: 67 initiatives (regulation + systems) included All relevant for (some) sustainability issues and/or Various parts of the bioenergy value chain Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010

18. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management overview and comparison of sustainability certification schemes 28 initiatives cover the sustainability of biofuels From which 17 are developing principles IEA Task 40 Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010

19. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Operationalisation of sustainability criteria costs land availability Criteria deforestation competition with food production biodiversity soil erosion fresh water nutrient leaching pollution from chemicals employment child labour wages Impact crop management system yield quantity cost supply curve [Smeets et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]

20. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Opposing sketches for the scenario preconditions, technological challenges, and impacts for bioenergy deployment on long term following Typical IPCC SRES. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

21. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management A future vision on global bioenergy markets (2050…) [GIRACT FFF Scenario project; Faaij, 2008] 250 Mha = 100 EJ = 5% ag land + pasture = 1/3 Brazilie

22. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Final remarks Bioenergy trade has rapidly become more important in total biomass supplies (for pellets in particular). Plays major role in balancing out fluctuations in demand (policy!) & supply (variable at large). Markets still immature; ethanol closest to commodity trading. Rapid growth very likely to continue; in particular (‘advanced’’) pellets (torrefaction); cultivated wood is becoming more important. More markets for lignocellulosic biomass emerge: 2 nd gen biofuels, biochemicals… Only a future when done sustainably… …while at the same time RE and GHG mitigation targets cannot be met without large scale bioenergy deployment

23. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Thanks for your attention For more information, see: www.bioenergytrade.org Detailed activities Background information Results Events Subscribe to the newsletter (2x per year). And: - Sciencedirect/Scopus - http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report