1. Climate change and food production: Challenges and opportunities for research Luis Garrote and Ana Iglesias Technical University of Madrid ENV-NCP-TOGETHER Brokerage Event Malta 31 August 2012

2. 2 climate and CO2 changes water availability land productivity technology development population trade, prices uncertaintydiscount rate A view of the problem from the academic side

3. Research questions about the future Knowledge needed Support to policy Models, Impacts, forecasting 3 How can food production deal with an uncertain future? Global projections of crop productivity and water availability (World, EU) Adaptation and policy How do we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting risks? Assessment and strategy planning process

4. Research questions about the future Knowledge needed Models, Impacts, forecasting 4 How can food production deal with an uncertain future? Adaptation and policy How do we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting risks? 4 Support to policy 4 Many projects provide policy support WASSERMed HIGHNOON enviroGRIDS

5. 2 assertions Scenario analysis Adaptive capacity 5 Understanding uncertainty is useful for facing agricultural challenges Understanding and reducing vulnerability does not demand accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change 1 key issue can climate change science map the future agriculture?

6. Output: Agro- climatic regions that include climate, farm types, irrigated areas, adaptive capacity Output: Database of simulated crop responses to climate, environment, and adaptive management 12 ClimateCrop model 3 5 4 Output: Land productivity and water demand estimated functions Crop models (DSSAT) Agricultural production functions Climate change analysis Agro- climatic regions Climate change policy analysis Output: Land productivity and water demand estimates responding to climate and farm adaptive management Output: Land productivity and water demand estimates responding to climate and policy (environmental and energy) 6

8. 8 A1B Avg A1B(1 to 12) E1 Avg E1(1 to 14) RCP8

9. Irrigation water demand change (% of baseline) to adapt food production to climate change 0210203080 9 A1B_av E1_av

10. natural water resources regulation infrastructure water availability non-conventional resources Policy naturenon-nature uses water recycling Policy essential productive Policy 10 A: Demand manag B: Supply manag: regulation C: Supply manag: additional resources (i.e., water re-use) D: Demand manag: efficiency manag, communication and education B, D B A A, C, D WAAPA model

11. Response to climate change in Water Availability Change in Water Availability for Irrigation (A2-CTL)/CTL Change in Mean Annual Runoff (A2-CTL)/CTL 11

12. Demand-Reliability curve under Climate Change Loire Rhone Adour - Garonne Duero-Douro Tajo-Tejo Guadiana Guadalquivir Júcar Ebro Po Appen Meridionale Appen Centrale Appen Settentrionale Alpi Orientali Attica-Pelopone. Thessaly West Macedonia W Aegean E Maced E Aegean Thrace Cent Macedonia

13. Effect of Public Policies Improved Water Resources System Management Stronger Environmental Protection Improved Urban Water Use Efficiency POLICYCOMPARATIVE EFFECTGEOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCE 13

14. Adaptive capacity Impacts Very negative (more than -30%) Very positive (more than +30%) None (AC = 0) Very high (AC = 1) no risk low very high high medium

15. potential risk (a synthesis) lowmediumhigh or very high

16. luis.garrote@upm.es thank you Presentation made at the: ENV-NCP-TOGETHER Brokerage Event Malta 31 August 2012 16 ana.iglesias@upm.es