1. 30 Years of Evidence on the Comparability of Exam Standards: Myths, Fiascos and Unrealistic Expectations Paul E. Newton Centre for Evaluation & Monitoring, University of Durham, 30th Anniversary Conference: 30 Years of Evidence in Education. 23 September 2014. London.

2. Statistics vs. Judgement: What Does 30 Years of Research Tell Us About the Best and Worst Way to Maintain Exam Standards?

3. What does it mean to ‘maintain’ an exam standard? Grade Awarding The process of identifying:  which marks on this year’s exam  correspond to levels of attainment (i.e. levels of knowledge, skill and understanding) that were associated with  grade boundary marks on last year’s exam.

4. Why do exam boards need to move grade boundaries? Because even exams that are designed to measure:  exactly the same kind of attainment  in exactly the same way  may end up being slightly different in terms of the overall difficulty of their questions

5. Have we always maintained exam standards like this?  30 years ago – in 1984?  60 years ago – in 1954?

6. Have we always maintained exam standards like this?  30 years ago – in 1984?  60 years ago – in 1954? … yes, pretty much!

7. Attainment-referencing From one examination to the next, corresponding grade boundaries should be located at marks associated with equivalent levels of attainment.

8. The myth

9. The myth… debunked

10. How do you operationalise attainment-referencing?

11. Scrutiny of scripts (undertaken by examiners) Comparing levels of attainment ‘directly’ by inspecting performances in examination scripts a.k.a. ‘ Judgement ’

12. Scrutiny of data (undertaken by the Board) Comparing levels of attainment indirectly by ‘modelling’ the causal determinants of attainment a.k.a. ‘ Statistics ’

13. Which is better – statistics or judgement?

15. The battle of grade awarding Examiners We are just so impressed by the quality of performances that we see in our French exams. The Board But do you really have enough evidence to justify raising the pass-rate yet again? After all:  pass-rates haven’t been rising in German or Spanish  the French cohort is expanding massively

16. What Does 30 Years of Research Tell Us About the Best and Worst Way to Maintain Exam Standards?

17. Evidence from Exam Boards

18. Evidence from Academia

19. Evidence from Regulators

20. What have we learned since 1984?

21. We shouldn’t put too much confidence in statistics

22. 4 NEAB maths A levels  P&A, P&M, P&S, SMP MLM to control for prior achievement, gender, etc.  even after control, SMP still appeared too lenient However the SMP syllabus  more motivating  excellent support materials  more time-consuming

23. We shouldn’t put too much confidence in judgement

24. Grade boundaries set by examiner judgement alone  for two exam papers  same subject  different tiers  sat by same candidates Many more students ended up with higher grades on the lower tier exam (than on the higher tier).

25. Judgemental innovations We have learned how to harness examiner judgement more effectively

26. Statistical innovations We have learned how to compute statistical analyses more effectively

27. It is extremely hard to predict and control comparability threats.

28. Summer 2012 GCSE English anomaly Summer 2002 Curriculum 2000 anomaly The ‘fiascos’

29. January awarding, 2012 Clear tendency to ensure students marked ‘comfortably’ above historical boundaries

30. June awarding, 2012 Same tendency, but many students no longer ‘comfortably’ above the raised boundaries

31. So, which is better – statistics or judgement?

32. Unrealistic expectations Three ‘stages’ in understanding comparability 1.statistical auditing  problems are routine  solutions require ‘back of the envelope’ sums 2.scientific research  problems are difficult  solutions require rigorous and objective investigations 3.art criticism  problems are perhaps insurmountable  solutions require value judgements (Bardell, Forrest and Shoesmith, 1978)

33. Realistic expectations + Persuasive justifications Four ‘stages’ in understanding comparability 1.statistical auditing 2.scientific research 3.art criticism 4.engineering pragmatism  many comparability problems are technically insurmountable… but some are less insurmountable than others and should be prioritised  all comparability solutions are inevitably imperfect… but some are less imperfect than others and should be prioritised  technically insurmountable problems and inevitably imperfect solutions highlight the fundamental importance of strong arguments in defence of policy and practice