1. Mexico’s Competitive Position in the New Global Economy Gordon Hanson UC San Diego and NBER November 2012

2. The rise of emerging economies The most significant global economic event of the last two decades is the rise of the emerging world Booming supply of manufactured goods Booming demand for commodities Rising incomes, falling poverty in developing countries How has Mexico fared? Hanson Nov 20122/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

3. Mexico’s growth has been sluggish… Hanson Nov 20123/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

4. reducing the relative size of Mexico’s market Hanson Nov 20124/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

5. Though even with tepid growth poverty has fallen Hanson Nov 20125/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

6. Explaining Mexico’s growth record The usual suspects Weak credit markets intermediate savings poorly A large informal sector drags down productivity growth Regulatory capture hampers telecoms, energy China’s growth has weakened Mexico’s market position Hanson Nov 20126/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

7. Domestic credit to private sector in Mexico is low Hanson Nov 20127/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

8. An abundance of small firms keeps productivity low Hanson Nov 20128/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position Source: Hsieh & Klenow

9. Mexico’s has low electricity output Hanson Nov 20129/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

10. Mobile penetration in Mexico is relatively low Hanson Nov 201210/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

11. China’s export surge has restricted Mexico Hanson Nov 201211/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

12. Revealed comparative advantage I Hanson Nov 201212/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

13. Revealed comparative advantage II Hanson Nov 201213/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

14. Revealed comparative advantage III Hanson Nov 201214/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

15. Prescriptions for economic growth Ideas for policy reforms (neither new nor easy) Strengthen protection to creditors Reduce incentives to join informal sector Raise incentive to stay and to excel in school Enforce anti-monopoly provisions Reform energy sector Hanson Nov 201215/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

16. Where else could growth come from? Possible sources of increased GDP Cost increases in China improve Mexico’s terms of trade Education spurs human capital accumulation Urbanization generates knowledge spillovers Digitization reduces information costs Hanson Nov 201216/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

17. Mexico’s manufacturing cost disadvantage is declining Hanson Nov 201217/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

18. China’s comparative advantage is shifting Hanson Nov 201218/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

19. Mexico is keeping pace in educational attainment Hanson Nov 201219/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

20. While Mexico is already highly urbanized… Hanson Nov 201220/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

21. there is still some room for growth in large cities Hanson Nov 201221/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

22. Urbanization and economic growth reinforce each other Hanson Nov 201222/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position

23. Digital connectedness is ahead of income growth Hanson Nov 201223/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position 2000 2010 2000 2010

24. The path ahead for Mexico Long-term economic growth is spurred by capital accumulation and steady improvements in productivity Institutional deficiencies in Mexico are impediments to both Policy reform has failed to address these deficiencies But there are some reasons for optimism Despite reliance on US, Mexico survived the GFC rather well Poverty has fallen sharply, educational attainment is rising The China threat is weakening, creating market openings Past policy inaction means there is money on the table Hanson Nov 201224/24 Mexico’s Competitive Position