1. Pre-School Attendance and Primary Education Proficiency in Brazil Meeting on Early Childhood - An Integrated Approach: Economics, Education, and the Neurosciences, FGV, Rio de Janeiro, December 2009 Sergio Calderini EAESP/FGV André Portela Souza EESP/FGV

2. Objective Estimate the impact of attending a pre- school on math and portuguese proficiency of 4th grader students in Brazil. Discuss the importance of pre-school supply as a public policy tool to improve quality of education in Brazil

3. Outline 1.Motivation 2.Some facts of pre-school attendance in Brazil 3.The Dataset 4.The Model and Specification 5.The Results 6.Cost-Benefit Analysis

4. Motivation I There are international evidences that early interventions on education can have lasting effects on cognitive and non-cognitive abilities later in life. Particularly, it may have some impact on learning and other human capital dimensions.

5. Motivation II Brazilian students present lower proficiency performance comparatively to students in other countries.

6. 2003 PISA Evidence

7. 367500625 0.5 366500623 0.5 212334464 0.5 288396507 0.5 281387496 0.5 311422535 0.5 OECD Brazil Mexico Pisa 2003: Math Proficiency

8. Motivation II Brazil spends relatively less resources in pre- school students compared to higher level students. This relative difference is greater in Brazil compared to other countries.

9. Annual Expenditure Per Time-Equivalent Student (PPP Dollar) - 2005

10. Annual Expenditure Per Time-Equivalent Student relative to Per Capita Income - 2005

11. Pre-school attendance in Brazil

12. Number of Pre-schools in Brazil

13. Number of Pre-schools per 100 4 to 6 year old Children and Pe-School Attendance in Brazil

14. The Dataset 2005 Prova Brazil Math and Portuguese Proficiency Exam 4th and 8th Grade Students All urban public school with at least 30 students in the corresponding grade

15. The Dataset Used All 4th graders with valid information on proficiency, pre-school attendance and demographic and economic variables. From all Ten years old in 2005 PNAD: –98,5% attend school –80% arein urban areas –Among those that attend school, 85% are in public schools.

16. The Dataset Used Age PreSchool<= 891011121314>= 15Total No1,89%4,71%33,07%26,69%15,41%8,53%4,81%4,89% 100,00 % Yes1,28%4,76%49,74%26,86%9,49%4,26%2,06%1,54% 100,00 % Total1,43%4,75%45,54%26,82%10,98%5,33%2,75%2,38% 100,00 % PNAD 2005 4th Graders1,14%10,86%44,13%20,27%10,41%6,54%4,24%2,41% 100,00 %

17. The Grade Distribuiton by Age (PNAD 2005) Age Grade101112 13,942,381,36 29,845,242,43 323,1611,566,56 449,7822,9811,87 512,4446,9324,33 60,8510,0442,40 70,000,889,14 80,00 0,91

18. Pre-School Attendance

19. Math Proficiency – 4th Graders

20. Portuguese Proficiency – 4th Graders

21. Summary Fourth graders that declared to have attended pre-schools –Have, on average, greater test scores on math and portuguese –Are more likely to not be delayed in school

22. The Model Pre-school attendance can have a direct effect on learning in the 4th grade (e.g., through habit formation and abilities acquired that are important during the 4th grade) Pre-school attendance can affect the chance of a child to be delayed in the 4th grade which in turn can affect the performance in the 4th grade

23. The Model y = test scores PS = pre-school attendance indicator variable D = Delay indicator variable X = vectoe of other controls including family background v = non-observable characteristics

24. The Specification N = number of pre-schools per 10 Four to Six year olds in the municipality in when a child was Five years old Sem = second semester birth indicator variable

25. The 4th Graders Groups Corrected AgeDelayed Never Repeated Group A 59% PS: 82% Group C 10% PS: 64% Repeated Group B 10% PS: 69% Group D 21% PS: 64%

26. The Results Descriptive Statistics VariableMeanS.D.MinMax Math Proficiency180,6239,9175,35330,65 Portuguese Proficiency173,3941,7364,52324,62 Pre-School0,750,440,001,00 Delayed0,320,470,001,00 Number of Public Pre- School per 10 Children0,120,130,002,44

27. Group A Only First Stage

28. Group A Only Second Stage

29. All Groups First Stage Results

30. Groups A and D Second Stage Regression

31. An Exercise from Model 3 What happens if the supply of public pre- schools increses by one more pre-school per Ten children? Direct effect on proficiency: –Math: 0,34 x 30,03 = 10,21 –Portuguese: 0,34 x 23,74 = 8,07 Indirect effect through delay: –Math: {-0,0079/0,3404}* (-13,7) = 0,32 –Portuguese: {-0,0079/0,3404}* (15,06) = 0,35

32. An Exercise from Model 4 What happens if the supply of public pre- schools increses by one more pre-school per Ten children? Direct effect on proficiency: –Math: 0,34 x 31,7 = 10,77 –Portuguese: 0,34 x 21,3 = 7,24 Indirect effect through delay: –Math: {-0,0155/0,2455}* (-13,6) = 0,85 –Portuguese: {-0,0079/0,3404}* (15,14) = 0,95

33. Conclusions Pre-school has impact on 4th graders’ proficiency The supply of pre-school has a positive impact on the likelihood to a child attendapre-school A policy of an expansion of school supply may not have a sizeble impact