1. Examining the effects of juvenile migration timing, hydropower- system passage type, and environmental factors on adult age- at-return of Snake River salmon Benjamin P. Sandford*, Eric R. Buhle, Jennifer L. Gosselin, and Mark D. Scheuerell Fish Ecology Division Fish Ecology Division Northwest Fisheries Science Center NOAA Fisheries Service

2. Introduction The Columbia/Snake River System has been extensively altered with hydropower and water- storage dams. This has significantly altered salmon migration timing patterns for many reasons. Understanding the effects of these changes is important for making future management actions.

3. Objectives Characterize the relationship between ocean- age and various juvenile migration and estuary/ocean factors for Chinook salmon –Rearing Type (analyzed separately, wild/natural only here) –Juvenile length –Lower Granite release date, flow, temperature –Barge transport or In-river migration –Ocean indicators: CUI, PDO, NPGO, ONI, PNI –Migration year (time series nuisance factor)

7. Analysis Warning: Math slide coming!

8. A Hierarchical Model of Adult Age log ratio transform Data Model observed age is multinomially distributed Process Model cohort + individual-level components cohort level: covariates, process error with auto- and cross-correlation individual level: may include covariates, but no additional process error

9. A Hierarchical Model of Adult Age Hierarchical Bayesian estimation in R/JAGS Model selection (all models include auto- and cross-correlation): 1)no covariates 2)cohort-level covariates only Apr-May CUI, Mar-Aug PDO, Mar-Aug NPGO, annual ONI, annual PNI 3)individual-level covariates only transport (I/T), length, release day, LGR discharge, LGR temp 4)cohort + individual covariates Compare candidate models by deviance information criterion (DIC)

10. Results

11. Snake River Yearling Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon PIT-tagged at, Migrated In-river from, or Transported from, Lower Granite Dam Transport, WildInriver, WildTransport, HatcheryInriver, Hatchery YearJuvenilesAdultsSAR JuvenilesAdultsSAR JuvenilesAdultsSAR JuvenilesAdultsSAR 19985848330.568380530.63417552630.63590842230.38 199986302072.40112751461.29453569832.17587648171.39 2000166543131.88421116931.65320570 2001165341761.0609800 2002212652841.34177271390.7813431260 200323641670.2826582340.1318002481 200411001600.55907090.10310 200512926350.276713120.1876640.5235550270.08 2006175771640.939820770.78266031940.731460916690.46 2007150701561.0414447990.69152221541.01786941780.23 2008160755383.3593621771.89264315241.989835210991.12 2009134953012.23136631150.841563191.22910114550.50 2010115871030.8916990710.4218631.61932473570.38 201112061400.33 15925420.26 34710.29 45498640.14 Total20236424771.2220206516670.8215867621491.3570672238900.55

12. Jacks

13. Smolt Size Adjustment (for non-LGR)

14. Covariates Posterior mean devianceEffective parametersΔDIC DIC weight individual only6395.6835.890.000.54 cohort + indiv6396.4135.500.340.46 cohort only6527.6814.34110.450.00 none6528.0014.65111.080.00 Model Selection

15. Cohort-Level Covariate Effects

16. Individual-Level Covariate Effects

17. Effect of Migration Route

18. Effect of Smolt Size

19. Effect of Migration Timing

20. Summary Ocean-age of PIT-tagged wild spring/summer Chinook salmon from the Snake/Columbia River had the following characteristics: In-river migrating juveniles returned as older adults than barge- transported fish Larger juveniles returned as younger adults Earlier-migrating juveniles returned as younger adults Juveniles entering the ocean in years with strong spring upwelling returned as younger adults Juveniles entering the ocean in relatively warm years returned as younger adults These results are from a first-cut analysis which will be refined and updated Similar analysis will be done with hatchery fish

21. Thanks! Eric, Jennifer and Mark COE and BPA NOAA Lower Granite PIT-tag Team, especially Tiffani Marsh

22. Questions