1. Implications of climate change for the supply of energy Dr. Hubertus Bardt October 5, 2012

2. Context  Regulatory environment: embodiment of emissions trading, growing portion of renewable energies, nuclear power phase- out, energy tax  European integration: integration of power grids and markets  Behaviour of consumption: decreasing consumption (especially heat demand), diminished demand for electricity  Global markets: increasing consumption and more expensive exploitation of new stocks of energy resources  Climate effects: topic of this talk! 2Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012

3.  Climate change: Which energy sources and which processes are fragile?  Climate change: How does it affect the energy system/power supply?  Energy scenarios: Which energy system will be concerned? Essential questions 3Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012

4. Supply chain 4Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012

5. Chances and risks  Temperatures: ice cover, extraction of cooling water, performance of energy conversion and grids  Sea level rise: height adaptation for oil-platforms  Precipitation: availability of water for the use of waterpower and cooling water, influence on biomass production  Sun and wind: higher sun and wind yields?  Storms: disturbances of transport lines (inclusive oceans), endangering high voltage lines and crops for the production of biomass 5Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012

6. Extraction and transport Energy sourceResource ExtractionTransport (to conversion) riskchancebalanceriskchancebalance Crude oil21-20 Natural gas21-20 Methane hydrate0 0 Hard coal0 -20 Lignite-20 0 Nuclear energy000000 Solar energyxxxxxx Biomass-30 0 Water powerxxxxxx Wind energyxxxxxx Geothermal energyxxxxxx Waste combustionxxxxxx Average -0,750,33-0,42-0,750,00-0,75 Ratings on a scale from -5 = „great risk by climate change“ to +5 = „great chance“. Source: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 6Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012

7. Energy conversion and distribution Energy sourceConversion/ Production Storage/ Fluctuation of returns Transportation/Grid/ Distribution riskchancebalanceriskchancebalanceriskchancebalance Crude oil-30 000 0 Natural gas-40 000-30 Hard coal-30 000 0 Lignite-20 000-30 Methane hydrate-30 000 0 Nuclear energy-30 000 0 Solar energy0 000-30 Biomass000000-30 Water power-20 10-30 Wind energy-21000-30 Geothermal energy000000-30 Waste combustion0 000-30 Average -2,000,08-1,92-0,080,080,00-3,000,00-3,00 Ratings on a scale from -5 = „great risk by climate change“ to +5 = „great chance“. Source: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 7Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012

8. Power scenarios (reference scenario) Source: Energieszenarien für ein Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung, 2010 Power scenario 2030 8Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012

9. Electricity supply Ratings on a scale from -5 = „great risk by climate change“ to +5 = „great chance“. Source: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln crude oil natural gas hard coal lignite methane hydrate nuclear energy solar energy biomass water power wind energy waste combustion geothermal energy 9Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012

10. Electricity supply balances weighted with today‘s ratios Sum: -100 (standardized). Source: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 0,0 10Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012

11. Electricity supply balances weighted with power scenarios 2030 Sum: -94,2. Source: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 0,0 11Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012

12. Electricity supply today vs. power scenario 2030 Total: today: -100,0; 2030: -94,2. Source: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 12Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012

13. Process steps of power supply (weighted with power scenario 2030 and today) Source: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 13Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012 today 2030

14. Results  moderate transformations by climate change  risks outweigh chances  power supply more vulnerable than total energy supply  risks decrease with higher ratios of renewable energy  problem of cooling water for thermal power plants is an apparent problem, which is reduced by renewable energies  among the renewables, biomass is most affected by climate change  increasing vulnerability (storms) and decreasing performance of power grids (heat) 14Dr. Hubertus Bardt – Implications of climate change for the supply of energy, Hurup Thy, Denmark, October 5, 2012

15. Thank you for your kind attention! bardt@iwkoeln.de