1. Minimum marriage age laws, child marriage and cumulative fertility:
Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa
Authors: Belinda Maswikwa, MA
Linda Richter, PhD
Chris Desmond, PhD
Jay Kaufman, PhD
Arijit Nandi, PhD

2. Outline Background Research aims Research methods Results Discussion
Questions

3. Background
62.8 million 20-24year olds married before 18

4. Child marriage Child marriage early child bearing
Child marriage higher maternal mortality
Child marriage higher child mortality
Child marriage higher HIV prevalence
Child marriage lower birth weights
Child marriage higher total fertility rates

5. Research aims Focus on three marriage laws
General minimum marriage age (civil)
Minimum marriage age with parental consent
Age of sexual consent
Association between all three minimum marriage age laws set at 18 or higher and child marriage (consistent 18 + laws)
Association between child marriage and fertility (total children born)

6. Contribution Gap in the literature Significance
South Asia focus – disproportionate burden in Sub-Saharan Africa
Few studies of effect of minimum marriage age laws
Significance
Reproductive health, mortality and morbidity concerns – child marriage and adolescent childbearing
UN MDG goals 4 and 5 (child mortality and maternal health)

7. Research methods

8. Data sources Child marriage database Demographic and Health Surveys
World Policy Analysis Centre at UCLA
Captures the legal minimum age of marriage
Demographic and Health Surveys
Funded by United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
Captures population and reproductive health
Collaboration with Institute for Health and Social Policy, McGill University, Montreal Canada

9. Primary Research Question
3 consistent 18+ minimum marriage age laws
Occurrence of child marriage
Exposure:
Marriage age law consistency
0 if any marriage laws < 18
1 if all three marriage laws > 18
Outcomes:
Child marriage rates
Analysis
Risk ratios
Weighted and controlled for clustering at country level

10. Results

11. Sample Country Year Minimum marriage age Parental Consent
Age of Sexual Consent
% married before 18
Mean children
Countries with 3 consistent 18+ laws
Burundi
2010 18
34.0
1.9
Ethiopia
2011
65.7
2.1
Rwanda 21
20.0
1.6
Uganda
57.1
2.2
Mean
20.2
18.8
49.3
2.0
Countries with 3 inconsistent laws
Burkina Faso 20 17 13
65.3
Cameroon
n/a 15
63.0
Gabon
2012
45.3
1.7
Malawi 14
61.6
Mozambique 16
65.0
Senegal
58.8
Tanzania
54.3
Zimbabwe
45.6
15.6
15.9
59.8
Focus on 15 to 26 year olds. Sample size of ever married women; 57.1% of them (23 760) married before 18 years. Inconsistencies, marriage age with parental consent lower than age of sexual consent in Gabon and Tanzania

12. Control variables Wealth quintile Location Education Religion
Poorest, Poor, Middle, Richer, Richest
Location
Rural, Urban - dummy variable
Education
None (0 years)
Primary school (1-6 years),
Secondary school ( 7 – 12 years)
Post secondary school (+13 years)
Religion
Muslim, Catholic, Other Christian, Traditional – dummy variables

13. Results: Law consistency and child marriage
Risk ratios (95% confidence intervals)
Consistent 18+ laws
(0.55 to 1.12)
Richest quintile (ref)
Richer
1.12*** (1.04 to 1.21)
Middle
1.15*** (1.06 to 1.25)
Poorer
1.21*** (1.11 to 1.31)
Poorest
1.23** (1.10 to 1.38)
School years
0.96*** (0.95 to 0.98)
Location (rural: urban)
1.10** (1.01 to 1.20)
No religion (ref)
Muslim
(0.86 to 1.09)
Catholic
0.88* (0.77 to 1.02)
Traditional
(0.85 to 1.13)
Other Christian
(0.90 to 1.09)
Source: DHS Surveys. 95% confidence level in parentheses. Indicates significance at p < .05 **; p < .01 ***; p < .1*

14. Secondary Research Question
3 consistent 18+ minimum marriage age laws
Adolescent Fertility
Exposure:
Child marriage
0 if first age at marriage >= 18
1 if first age at marriage < 18
Outcomes:
Fertility
Total children born
Analysis
Poisson regression
Weighted and controlled for clustering at country level

15. Controls Covariates: Wealth quintile Location Education Age Religion
Poorest, Poor, Middle, Richer, Richest
Location
Rural, Urban - dummy variable
Education
None (0 years)
Primary school (1-6 years),
Secondary school ( 7 – 12 years)
Post secondary school (+13 years)
Age
Religion
Muslim, Catholic, Protestant, Traditional – dummy variables

16. Results: child marriage and fertility
CEB
β coefficients (95% confidence intervals)
Child marriage
0.53*** (0.46 to 0.60)
Consistent 18+ laws
(-0.22 to 0.14)
Richest quintile (ref)
Richer
0.07*** (0.02 to 0.13)
Middle
0.11*** (0.05 to 0.18)
Poorer
0.12*** (0.05 to 0.20)
Poorest
0.16*** (0.07 to 0.24)
School years
-0.02*** (-0.03 to 0.00)
Location
0.09*** (0.04 to 0.14)
Age
0.17*** (0.16 to 0.18)
No religion (ref)
Muslim
(-0.13 to 0.04)
Catholic
(-0.09 to 0.06)
Other Christian
(-0.11 to 0.04)
Traditional
-0.01** (-0.08 to 0.06)
Source: DHS Surveys. 95% confidence level. Indicates significance at p < .05 **; p < .01 ***; p < .1*

17. Discussion
No significant association between law consistency and child marriage at country level
Households in countries with consistent minimum marriage age laws of 18 years or over for girls are 21% less likely to have women who marry as children
Significant positive association between child marriage and adolescent fertility
Girls who marry before the age of 18 years have more children than those who marry as adults.
Study limitations
Further work

18. Questions/Comments
Thank you