1. Getting Health Services Right for an Ageing Population. What else do we need to do? David Oliver Partners in care conference, Manchester 7 Feb 2010

2. What I will cover I: The success story of population ageing and our unhelpful & polarised attitudes to it II: What it means for population health and wellbeing (the good and the “challenging”)? III: What it means for health services? IV: Are our services geared up to the new reality? V: How we need to change? You can all have all the slides and I do answer emails What I won’t cover much until question time: Relevant Health Policy in England

3. I: Population ageing in England

4. Population Ageing England Life Expectancy 1901 – 49 F, 45 M – 1.3 M over 65 (5% of population) Life Expectancy 2008 – 82 F, 77 M, 50% living to 80 – 8.1. M over 65 (19% of population) – 5% over 80 Life expectancy at 70 is now 17 years for men and 19 for women (“seventy is the new sixty”) Start of the NHS in 1948, 48% died before 65 Now its <18% Still major inequalities in (healthy) life expectancy at 65

5. 5 We continue to live longer on average, but over the last 50 years, the trend has moved from a ‘rectangularisation’ (from young to old) to an a ‘elongation’ (from old to older) of the age distribution in the population. Number over 80 has doubled in past decade (See BMJ 2010 “oldest old double”) Source: mortality.org, originally ONS Around 18% of all deaths were before 65 in 2006 – the same proportion as in 1991

6. ONS Projections (e.g. 146% increase in over 90s and 85% increase in over 80s in next 20 years)

7. The success story of population ageing: A cause for celebration? Better social conditions, housing, nutrition Better work-place safety Higher wealth Better child and maternal health Better public health Better preventative health interventions Better curative medical treatment Better management for long term conditions Better potential for individuals to flourish and have a long and active life

8. Unhelpful/apocalyptic language? “The Elderly”?? “Time-bomb” “Crisis” “Tsunami” “Burden” Distasteful jokes on email forwards... Ageist language used by doctors and nurses “Challenge” surely a better word?

9. Perceptions and stereotypes of ageing (Clinicians are not immune…lots of objective evidence) “It is commonly believed that older people lead a rather gloomy existence characterised by social isolation, neglect from their family, beset with health problems and suffering considerable emotional stress”...Most pernicious is the assumption of “passivity and dependence”...with older people “Incapable of running their own lives and as passive recipients of services” Christina Victor. The Social Context of Ageing

10. II: What ageing really means for population health and wellbeing A balanced view instead of polarised reality gap of elite ageing versus victimhood and “the elderly”

11. Satisfaction with life English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, more than half of over 10,000 over 50s tracked since 2002 experienced increase in wellbeing with age US National Academy of Sciences Study, (314,000) Overall enjoyment of life declined through early adulthood, beginning to rise again at c 50 and peaking in 70s and 80s Health, poverty and social-connectedness all independent influencers

12. How older people define wellbeing Not just medical model of “absence of disease” Control over daily life Personal care and appearance Food and drink Accommodation (cleanliness and comfort) Personal safety Social Participation Occupation/Activity Dignity (in care) once you are vulnerable or dependent Wider Determinants: Potential for multiple disadvantages. Role of local government, benefits, housing etc?

13. Dignity in Older Europeans Project (Woolhead) 400 older people. (Themes mirrored in 500 under 65s) Dignity of identity – Maintain self respect – Undermined by disrespectful address or labelling – Attitudes of staff or family – Neglect of appearances and clothing – Exposure – Lack of privacy in personal care and mixed wards – Toileting – Nutrition (and assistance with feeding and drinking) – Care when suffering or dying (See also “Dying to be heard” or VOICES survey) Human Rights – Importance of being treated as an equal, regardless of age – Fighting discrimination – Choose how you live and how you die (including advanced decisions) Autonomy – Retain independent control over lives for as long as possible – Even where need for nursing home, can still be kept clean and tidy

14. Family Carers’ priorities? e.g. RC.Psych Audit of Dementia Care in General Hospitals 2011 Care planning and support in relation to the dementia (i.e. not just the acute condition) from admission to discharge Care of patients with acute confusion Maintaining dignity in care Maintenance of patient ability Communication and collaboration: staff and patients/ carers Information exchange End-of-life care Ward environment Mirrors Patients’ Association C.A.R.E campaign

15. A note of caution... False and unhelpful distinction between “basic” or “essential” care And medical/diagnostic Falls, immobility, confusion, incontinence, end of life care, nutrition, dementia, pain, discharge planning etc... All require a proper diagnosis and treatment And require skills and knowledge Patients and their families might be happy with personal nursing care but not realise that treatable problems are not being addressed

16. Proportion of older people less healthy/more dependent? Health survey for England – 1 in 3 over 65 reported no longstanding illness – 60% over 65 reported no illness limiting lifestyle – 1 in 2 women over 80 reported no limiting illness – Slight improvement over 30 years Census – 40% of 65 to 74 “good health”, 37% “fairly good” – Over 85, 60% F and 70% M “good or fairly good” – Small improvement over 30 years English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Healthy Life Expectancy at 65 (2005): 15 years F, 13 years M. Cognitive function and ageing study (Brayne et al) 1.3 M (15%) of people over 65 disabled, with 62% needing care at some point daily and 21% continuous care No reduction in proportion living with LTC but seeming reduction in those suffering limiting illness

17. But.....The result of increasing life expectancy on population prevalence of illness.. People now either survive with one or more long- term conditions (often requiring multiple medications) Live long enough to develop conditions of ageing – E.g. dementia (800,000), osteoporosis, cataracts etc Live long enough to become frail Live long enough to develop functional, sensory or cognitive impairment And potentially disabled or dependent to some degree So reliant on formal or informal care or multiple services and contacts with multiple staff

18. – The majority of over-65s have 2 or more conditions, and the majority of over-75s have 3 or more conditions – More people have 2 or more conditions than only have 1 Multimorbidity in Scotland (Scottish School of Primary Care)

19. 198 April, 2015 People with long-term conditions have high health service use (55% of all GP appointments, 68% of outpatient and A&E appointments and 77% of inpatient bed days and therefore 69% total health spend.

20. Societal Cost of Dementia in UK Alzheimer’s Disease International, 2009 [Total NHS spend in England £122bn. [Total spend on Dementia in Health and Social Care £8.2bn] [Total spend on police and prisons £9.4bn]

21. Frailty [ Muscle and weight loss, weakness, slow walking speed, easy fatigue (Fried)]..”Frailty is a failure to integrate responses in the face of stress. This is why diseases manifest themselves as the “geriatric giants”….functions …such as staying upright, maintaining balance and walking are more likely to fail, resulting in falls, immobility or delirium. A small insult can result in catastrophic loss of function” Rockwood Age Ageing 2004 i.e. Poor Functional Reserve

22. 22 Source: Family Resources Survey 2007 Disability distribution over age Reported prevalence of disability clearly rises with age. We also need to understand how the severity of disability varies with age.

23. III: What this in turn means for health and social care services. In particular, general hospital casemix “Older People R US”

24. People over 65... 60% adult social care spend (£9bn) – 1.25 M out of 1.7 m users 37% NHS Primary Care spend (£27bn) 46% acute care spend (£ 27bn) 12% NHS budget is on community health care (largely older people) (c £12bn) Often those interdependent on multiple services (e.g. 60% of home care service users have been in hospital in previous year. 80% of delayed transfers are over 70) Population ageing means this trend will continue

25. Over 65s in hospital (England) (DH analysis of HES data) 60% admissions 70% bed days 85% delayed transfers 65% emergency readmissions 75% deaths in hospital 25% bed days are in over 85s

26. High intensity users of hospital services have overlap of physical and social vulnerabilities

27. Hospital Casemix (even more vulnerable and complex in long term social care – where access to healthcare fairly poor – see “quest for quality” 2011) 1 in 4 adult beds occupied by someone with dementia (stay an average 7 days longer) Delirium affects 1 in 4 patients over 65 Urinary incontinence 1 in 4 over 65 1 in 4 over 65 have evidence of malnutrition Falls and falls injuries account for more bed days than MI and Stroke Combined Falls = 35% safety incidents (median age 82) Hip fracture is a good example – Median Age 84, 12 month mortality 20-30%, 1 in 3 have dementia, 1 in 3 suffer delirium, 1 in 3 never return to former residence, 1 in 4 from care homes

28. IV: Are our services and systems consistently “age proof and fit for purpose” – designed around the needs of the people who use them most? Older people not so much “new consumers” but “disadvantaged majority”?

29. Official values... “ comprehensive service available to all, free at the point of delivery and based on need and not age, gender, ethnicity etc” NHS Constitution 2008 “unjustifiable age discrimination and unfair treatment have no place in a fair society which values all its members” Equality Act 2010

30. Prof Ken Rockwood 2005 “If we design services for people with one thing wrong at once but people with many things wrong turn up, the fault lies not with the users but with the service, yet all too often these patients are labelled as inappropriate and presented as a problem”

31. Rt Hon Stephen Dorrell MP 2011 (HSJ) “ Systems designed to treat occasional episodes of care for normally healthy people are being used to deliver care for people who have complex and long term conditions. The result is often that they are passed from silo to silo without the system having ability to co-ordinate different providers”

32. What do we mean by “quality” in treatment and care? Effectiveness. Outcomes plus adherence to recognised good practice which can deliver these and closing care gaps Safety Experience of patients and carers, including person-centred care Efficiency. Ensuring value for money and minimising unwarranted variation/ensuring consistency [Fairness/lack of discrimination] [Joined-up-ness/Integration/Seamlessness……a topic for another day]

33. Outcomes and proven interventions/services to deliver them e.g. RCP national audits on falls and bone health x 4 (latest “falling standards, broken promises”, 2011) National Hip Fracture Database and Annual Reports RCP national continence audit RCPsych audit of dementia care in general hospitals and NHS Confederation “Acute Awareness” report NCEPOD report on peri-operative care for people over 80 “an age old problem” Age UK “hungry to be heard” report Steele et al BMJ 2008 on self-reported quality of care indicators for primary care in 8,400 people Work on anti-psychotic prescriptions in Dementia Quest for Quality Report on health inputs in long term care

34. Safety e.g. Falls (275,000 in english hospitals last year) Emergency readmissions Hospital mortality rates largely concern older people Drug errors (prescribing, administration, supervision) – (CHUMS study) Hospital acquired infections Pressure sores DVT Protection of vulnerable adults

35. Experience (of patients and carers) e.g. 2008 All parliamentary enquiry into older people in health and social care – “A disturbing picture, requiring an entire culture change” NHS Ombudsman’s report “care and compassion” 2011 Patients association report Care Quality Commission Dignity and Nutrition Inspections 2011 Various reports on dementia care in general hospitals 2010/11 VOICES survey on end of life care Reports on using multiple services/transitions Common issues: Dignity, nutrition, communication, respect, information, continence, privacy, discharge from hospital, end of life care, pain relief, dementia care, attitudes

36. Efficiency Major unwarranted variations e.g. hospital admission and length of stay for various groups and conditions Care home placement Delays, barriers etc at interfaces between agencies/care settings

37. National Hip Fracture Database

38. 3 fold variation (Similar story on bed days, readmissions, nursing home placements etc)

39. CPA Review (part of equality act consultation)

40. CPA Review www.cpa.org.uk/reading/age_discrimination.pdf Services often differentiated by age with major differences in resource, access, referral etc Decisions made arbitrarily on chronological age Older people receive systematically worse diagnosis, treatment, specialist referral etc than younger with same condition Common conditions of ageing are relatively neglected when compared to conditions of youth and mid-life Older people with frailty and functional impairment go undiagnosed and labelled as “acopia” “social admission” etc Attitudes, culture, basic care, communication etc...

41. Rt Hon Peter Aldous MP. Westminster Hall Debate on NHS care of older people 27 th October 2011 “I do not like saying this, but there is a sense of déjà vu here….The CQC findings are similar to those in the 1998 report, “Not because they are old”, and there are parallels with the Patients’ Association study of two years ago. It is as if each new revelation creates a sense of outrage, and then nothing happens. We all have an obligation to ensure that this time is different.”

42. Death by awareness?... “I’m drowning here and you’re describing the water” Melvin Udall. As good as it gets We have more than enough evidence on: – What older people want – What good practice looks like – What isn’t good enough – The reasons behind it Need to move from awareness to intention to concerted effective action

43. V: How do we get better? Solutions, Solutions, Solutions Constructive, effective, realistic

44. Constructive Solutions – no one “silver bullet” “For every complex human problem there is a solution which is simple, obvious and wrong” H L Mencken We need to tackle the problem from several angles... Stop reducing everything to training and accountability of nurses

45. Solutions (we need them all) Systematic involvement of older people and carers as partners Training, education, workforce, revalidation Clinical & managerial leadership, ward to board to college Good practice guidance and models Dissemination and implementation Effective regulation, inspection and follow up Everybody “owning” the care of older people including doctors/AHPs etc System outcomes, incentives and rules Transparent data on performance and quality Targeted campaigns and strategies (e.g. end of life, dementia) Greater focus on prevention and proactive long term conditions management to keep older people well and independent More integrated services Advocacy and momentum from charities etc Social care reform Law (Equality Act, Human Rights etc)

46. We have a once in a generation opportunity transform care. Lets not waste it. Thank You David.Oliver@dh.gsi.gov.uk