1. THECB 1/2007 Participation Forecast and Report on Participation and Success Progress January 25, 2007

2. THECB 1/2007 Participation Forecast  Designed to reflect current trends, and be conservative  5 years of historical enrollment by age, race/ethnicity, and county  Uses new population projections  Projected population by age, race/ethnicity, and county  Non-resident participation factors  Institutional input on local conditions

3. THECB 1/2007 2015 Projection is lower than previous forecast  Population projections decreased due to change in the recommended migration rate which: –Lowered statewide population projection –Difference largest for Hispanics  Most recent five-year enrollment trend flatter than that used two years ago

4. THECB 1/2007 Changes in Population Projections for 2015 2004 Projection 2006 Projection % Change Total28,060,00026,160,000-6.8% Anglo11,780,00011,690,000-0.7% African-Am3,030,0002,910,000-3.8% Hispanic11,860,00010,440,000-12.0% Source: Texas State Data Center

5. THECB 1/2007 Five years of enrollment increases, but from 2004 to 2006, pace slackened 216,650

6. THECB 1/2007 Forecasted Enrollment Public Colleges and Universities

7. THECB 1/2007 2004 and 2006 Participation Forecast Differences 1,317,000 1,292,000

8. THECB 1/2007 2004 and 2006 Participation Forecasts for 2010 and 2015 200520102015

9. THECB 1/2007 Closing the Gaps vs Forecast Closing the Gaps  Based on where Texas wants be by 2015  Expect changes to happen to reach goals Forecast  Based on the historic trends  What will happen if current patterns do NOT change

10. THECB 1/2007 Close the Gaps in Participation By 2015, close the gaps in enrollment rates across Texas to add 630,000 more students.

11. THECB 1/2007 Given Current Trends Texas Will Not Reach Closing the Gaps 5.7% Goal Public Colleges and Universities

12. THECB 1/2007 Largest growth in enrollment continues to be at Two-Year Colleges 2% Health-Related University Independent Two-Year College 2000 – 2006 University Two-Year College Independent 1995 - 2000 0% Health-Related

13. THECB 1/2007 Higher Education is more diverse African-Am. HispanicWhite Other Fall 2006 African-Am. White Hispanic Fall 2000 Other

14. THECB 1/2007 2010 Hispanic Target remains a big challenge * Asians are not targeted in the plan. WhiteHispanicAfrican-Am

15. THECB 1/2007 4 Regions account for 91% of Hispanic enrollment increase fall 2005 to fall 2006

16. THECB 1/2007 Changes In Rate of Increase  Decrease in the number of delayed-entry students  University –One-year persistence is stable –Two-year persistence dropped in 2002 and is rebounding  Two-Year Colleges –One- and two-year persistence is stable

17. THECB 1/2007 The percent of students entering from public high schools increased slightly. (44.1%) (43.6%) (43.4%) (44.1%) (44.2%) Percent of Graduating Class (44.4%) (45.4%) Into public higher education only. (44.5%)

18. THECB 1/2007 Participation Summary  Fall 2006 enrollments represented 2.1% growth over previous fall; low rate but better than 0.9% growth from fall 2004 to fall 2005  Hispanic enrollment growth was substantial but continues to trail targets  Percentage of students coming directly from high school increased slightly

19. THECB 1/2007 Close the Gaps in Success By 2015, award 210,000 undergraduate degrees, certificates and other identifiable student successes from high quality programs.

20. THECB 1/2007 31,460 more Bachelor’s, Associate’s and Certificates awarded than in 2000 31,460 93,765

21. THECB 1/2007 University Graduation Rates Increasing Graduation RateFY 1999FY 2005 4-Year19.9%24.3% 5-Year39.7%48.1% 6-Year49.2%56.7% Graduation & Persistence63.5%70.3% Transfers’ Grad Rate49.3%52.2% Students Receiving Pell25.7%31.6%

22. THECB 1/2007 Two-Year Colleges Graduation and Persistence Increasing FY 2000FY 2005 Bachelor’s Degrees12.6%16.3% Associate’s Degrees8.7%9.9% Certificates4.4% Persisting12.3%13.4% Total Grad & Persist Rate38.0%44.0%

23. THECB 1/2007 Public Institutions’ Bachelor’s targets still below the 2010 Closing the Gaps Bachelor’s Associate’s

24. THECB 1/2007 Public Doctoral Institutional targets Exceed 2010 Closing the Gaps target

25. THECB 1/2007 Institutional Targets for Undergraduate Minority Awards’ are Far Short * Not targeted in the Plan. White* Hispanic African-Am.

26. THECB 1/2007 How can we increase graduates in critical fields? TechnologyNursing/Allied Health

27. THECB 1/2007 Technology degree change is not consistent across disciplines

28. THECB 1/2007 UG awards in Allied Health and Nursing continue to improve

29. THECB 1/2007 Percentage increase in UG awards at public institutions greatest for underrepresented groups +15.0% +31.0% +51.4% +55.3%

30. THECB 1/2007 Next Steps?  Revise strategies for each Closing the Gaps area to focus efforts on pertinent activities that lead to genuine progress  Concentrate on Hispanic participation and success

31. THECB 1/2007 2015 Enrollment Forecast Differences 2006 ForecastCTG Goal Public Universities 533,686 603,484 Public Two-Year Colleges 640,528 867,670 Independent Seniors 117,779 119,093 Total 1,291,993 1,590,246

32. THECB 1/2007 Closing the Gaps, by 2015 Participation and Success Update

33. THECB 1/2007 Participation Comparison for College and Universities Projection, Institutional Targets and CTG Goals

34. THECB 1/2007 Participation Comparison for Two-Year Colleges: Projections, Institutional Targets and CTG Goals

35. THECB 1/2007 Participation Comparison for Universities: Projections, Institutional Targets and CTG Goals

36. THECB 1/2007 Bachelor’s awarded to Hispanics at public institutions shows improvement

37. THECB 1/2007 Changes in 15 to 34 Year Old Population for 2015 Prior Projection 2006 Projection % Change Total8,250,0007,460,000-9.5% Anglo2,920,0002,900,000-0.7% African-Am970,000920,000-5.0% Hispanic3,990,0003,360,000-15.9%

38. THECB 1/2007 Higher Education 2000 and 2006 Two-Year Colleges Pub. Universities HRI Fall 2006 Fall 2000 Independents HRI Two-Year Colleges Pub. Universities

39. THECB 1/2007 Economically disadvantaged students less likely to enroll in higher education

40. THECB 1/2007 Large increases in the percent of entering students with the Recommended or above curriculum 55% 53% 65% 73% 78% 53% 84% 86%