2. A Look at Biases and Risks

3. 1) Discrepancy between real and perceived risk 2) The Influence of Media 3) Why this topic matters

4. 1) Discrepancy between real and perceived risk 2) The Influence of Media 3) Why this topic matters

6. MOST PEOPLE WOULD SAY SHARKS

7. BUT THE REAL ANSWER IS COWS

8. Annual Deaths Animals Bees Dogs Horses Cows Spiders Rattlesnakes Sharks 22 1

11. Unit of acute risk 1 in 1,000,000 chance of death

12. Activities 0100200300400500600700800900100011001200130014001500 Risk in Micromorts Accidents Suicide Homicide Heart Attack Cancer Falling Firearms Homicide in next year 1,465 525 626 500 100 474 13 10

13. Activities 0100200300400500600700800900100011001200130014001500 Risk in Micromorts Accidents Suicide Homicide Heart Attack Cancer Falling Firearms Homicide in next year 1,465 525 626 500 100 474 13 10

14. Activities 0100200300400500600700800900100011001200130014001500 Risk in Micromorts Accidents Suicide Homicide Heart Attack Cancer Falling Firearms Homicide in next year 1,465 525 626 500 100 474 13 10

15. 1 Pill of Ecstasy Skiing Horseback riding Falling Airplane Hurricane Bike Ride for 1 mile Lightning Strike Shark Attack Activities ] +

16. 1) Discrepancy between real and perceived risk 2) The Influence of Media 3) Why this topic matters

17. 1) Availability Bias 2) Bad News Effect

18. = report on shark attacks = report on cow stampedes = 66 U.S. results on NY Times  MORE LIKELY TO BE ATTACKED BY SHARKS =1 result on NY Times  LESS LIKELY TO BE ATTACKED BY COWS

20. Time Magazine declared 2001 the “Summer of the Shark” Thereafter, any encounter with a shark made prime time news

21. 12 Killed in 85 Attacks Worldwide 5 Killed in 76 Attacks Worldwide 2000:2001:

22. Annual “Shark Week” every Summer No “Cow Week”

23. 55 Wiki pages in Category: “Films about Sharks”

24. 7 Wiki pages in Category: “Films about Cows”

26. Number of Google Searches, Normalized 20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014 Year 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0.0 64.0 126.0 160.0 205.0 382.0 322.0 Shark Attack Bee Sting Dog Attack Cow Stampede

27. Annual Deaths Animals Bees Dogs Horses Cows Spiders Rattlesnakes Sharks 22 1

28. 1) Discrepancy between real and perceived risk 2) The Influence of Media 3) Why this topic matters

30. In 2013 in the U.S. alone: Homicides: 16,121 cases Suicides: 41,149 cases

31. Activities 01002003004005006007008009001000110012001300140015001600 Risk in Micromorts Accidents Suicide Homicide Heart Attack Cancer Falling Death by firearms Homicide in next 12 months 1,465 525 626 500 100 474 13 10 Activities 0100200300400500600700800900100011001200130014001500 Risk in Micromorts Accidents Suicide Homicide Heart Attack Cancer Falling Firearms Homicide in next year 1,465 525 626 500 100 474 13 10

32. Too many movies 533 Wiki pages in Category: “Serial Killer Films ”

33. 170 Wiki pages in Category: “Films about Suicide”

37.  http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120209-a-lesson-in-risk http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120209-a-lesson-in-risk  http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/12/micromorts/ http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/12/micromorts/  http://io9.com/introducing-a-unit-of-death-1450909092 http://io9.com/introducing-a-unit-of-death-1450909092  http://plus.maths.org/content/os/issue55/features/risk/index http://plus.maths.org/content/os/issue55/features/risk/index  http://wnyyradio.com/news/25-shocking-things-more-likely-to-kill-you-than-a-shark/ http://wnyyradio.com/news/25-shocking-things-more-likely-to-kill-you-than-a-shark/  http://www.google.com/trends/ http://www.google.com/trends/  http://mentalfloss.com/article/51181/micromorts-your-guide-living-longer http://mentalfloss.com/article/51181/micromorts-your-guide-living-longer  http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm  http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/suicide.htm http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/suicide.htm  http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/31/how-scared-should-we-be/?_r=0 http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/31/how-scared-should-we-be/?_r=0  http://www.sharksavers.org/en/education/sharks-and-people/shark-attack-media-hype-or-shark-truth/ http://www.sharksavers.org/en/education/sharks-and-people/shark-attack-media-hype-or-shark-truth/  http://query.nytimes.com/search/sitesearch/?action=click&contentCollection&region=TopBar&WT.nav=searchWidget&module=SearchSubmit&pgty pe=Homepage#/cow+stampedes/since1851/allresults/1/allauthors/relevance/U.S./ http://query.nytimes.com/search/sitesearch/?action=click&contentCollection&region=TopBar&WT.nav=searchWidget&module=SearchSubmit&pgty pe=Homepage#/cow+stampedes/since1851/allresults/1/allauthors/relevance/U.S./  http://query.nytimes.com/search/sitesearch/?action=click&contentCollection&region=TopBar&WT.nav=searchWidget&module=SearchSubmit&pgty pe=Homepage#/shark+attacks/since1851/allresults/1/allauthors/relevance/U.S./ http://query.nytimes.com/search/sitesearch/?action=click&contentCollection&region=TopBar&WT.nav=searchWidget&module=SearchSubmit&pgty pe=Homepage#/shark+attacks/since1851/allresults/1/allauthors/relevance/U.S./  http://www.forbes.com/sites/warrenmeyer/2012/07/12/summer-of-the-shark-global-warming-edition/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/warrenmeyer/2012/07/12/summer-of-the-shark-global-warming-edition/  http://www.sharksavers.org/en/education/sharks-and-people/shark-attack-media-hype-or-shark-truth/ http://www.sharksavers.org/en/education/sharks-and-people/shark-attack-media-hype-or-shark-truth/