1. © 2008 IBM Corporation 1 Macro Trends and What They Mean for 2050 Jeff Jonas IBM Distinguished Engineer jeffjonas@us.ibm.com www.jeffjonas.typepad.com

2. © 2008 IBM Corporation 2 Collections of technologies create big effects.

3. © 2008 IBM Corporation 3 The World Becomes Less Dangerous 1900: Western Europe 37 Today: Global Average 67 Avg Age 1300’s: “Black Death” 75M ~17+% 300M ~4.5% Today: If America sunk into ocean and everyone dies Number Dead

4. © 2008 IBM Corporation 4 2050 Prediction Your doctor is 102 and this is not weird.

5. © 2008 IBM Corporation 5 Much More … Much Faster & Much Easier Mark Zuckerberg (FaceBook) 2005: <3 years 1953: { 140,000 deaths Difficulty 1st Nuke (130,000 people, $37B) Re-animation of 1918 Spanish Influenza (<50 people, <$100k) Today: { 160,000,000 deaths BAD! 1870: Many years John D Rockerfeller Years to $1B GOOD!

6. © 2008 IBM Corporation 6 2050 Prediction Your 14-year-old neighbor makes $10B from their bedroom.

7. © 2008 IBM Corporation 7 Surveillance is irresistible. Sensors become ubiquitous. Piles of data become one.

8. © 2008 IBM Corporation 8 Information in Context

9. © 2008 IBM Corporation 9 Information in Context

10. © 2008 IBM Corporation 10 Collective Intelligence in the Clouds

11. © 2008 IBM Corporation 11 2050 Prediction Collective intelligence will locate what you need to know … and tell you!

12. © 2008 IBM Corporation 12 2050: Insight From Above “Jump to the right 1 foot!” Observations of migratory birds Data about where you are right now

13. © 2008 IBM Corporation 13 … you and your doctor … When collective intelligence serves … … the police looking at you … LOVE! HATE!

14. © 2008 IBM Corporation 14 Macro Trends and What They Mean for 2050 Jeff Jonas IBM Distinguished Engineer jeffjonas@us.ibm.com www.jeffjonas.typepad.com