0. State of the LABOR force
Kyle Hurst, U Denver

1. Today’s Talk Current state of the labor force Delineated by:
Education level
Age range
Retirement
Issues faced by the labor force

2. Issues faced by current labor force
Retirement becoming less of a possibility
Working through retirement
Health care uncertainty from implementation of the ACA
Block grant funding moving in two directions
Less overall being appropriated
More being earmarked for specific programs (medicare, medicaid, schip)

3. Current Labor Market UE rate Poverty
Inflation rate vs. Wage increases (impact on purchasing power) or real wage increases

4. Unemployment picture A very mixed picture
Discouraged workers seem to be slowly declining
Overall decline in participation in the labor force by males in general
UE down year over year (Aug ‘13 - Aug ‘14) in all but 5 states (up in AL, AK, WV, flat in VA, WY)
Non-farm payrolls increased in 49 states and DC, decreased in only 1 state (AK) from Aug ‘13 -Aug ‘14
UE by education level
JOLTS Report

5. Discouraged workers
As people are displaced from the economy during an economic downturn, some become frustrated by the lack of jobs and choose to exit the labor force. As the economy recovers, they re-enter the labor force thereby “raising” the unemployment rate.

6. Male labor force participation
There has been a steady decline in participation in the labor force by males, 16 yrs or older (BLS data).
1992: 75.8%
2002: 74.1%
2012: 70.2%
2022 (proj): 67.6%

7. Labor force participation is a mixed bag as well
There has been a steady increase in participation in the labor force by males, 65 yrs or older (BLS data).
1992: 16.1%
2002: 17.9%
2012: 23.6%
2022 (proj): 27.2%

8. Impact on market
Older workers are “choosing” not to retire at “traditional age.”
Limits opportunity for those entering traditional working age
Also limits promotional opportunity

10. UE by state National rate 5.9% (Sep ‘14)
DC, NV, RI, MS, GA all above 7.5%
AZ, KY, OR, CA, MI, TN all between %
UT, SD, NE, ND all below 3.7%
IA, NH, MN, HI, VT all between 4.1% - 4.5%
Nearly all states (except AL,AK,WV) have been seeing improvements in their labor markets.

11. UE by education (Sep ‘13 - ‘14)
Less than a HS diploma: 10.4% => 8.4%
HS grad: 7.5% => 5.3%
Some college/associates degree: 6.1% => 5.4%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 3.7% => 2.9%
Seasonally adjusted

12. JOLTS (Job Openings and labor turnover survey)
QUITS Rate – leaving a job voluntarily
Has remained low
Safety being highly valued over higher pay at a new job
Low bargaining power with employer
Perceived competition in the job market is keeping people locked into their jobs

13. Different problems for different levels
HS grad/less than HS face unemployment as well as working poverty:
EITC
Food stamps/SNAP
Housing Subsidies
TANF/Job Training
Minimum wage
Child care issues

14. Earned Income Tax Credit
Monies dedicated to the “working poor” that can only be claimed by filing a tax return
Average benefit is $2,335
27 million claims
Overall roughly 21% of people who qualify don’t claim their benefit

15. SNAP usage
15.1% of the population claimed SNAP benefits in June ‘14 (46.5 million)
1 year (June ‘13-’14) =>2.65% decline in usage
9 states increased, 41 + DC declined
5 years (June ‘09-’14) =>32.4% increase in usage
48 states + DC increased, 2 states declined

18. TANF Numbers Decline in claimants Oct ‘13 - March ‘14
3.678 mil average # of family claims (Oct ‘13)
3.496 mil average # of family claims (Mar ‘14)

19. Marriage Picture
Pew research released in September paints a picture of the changing face of marriage for today and into the near future

24. Real wage
Change in prices of consumer goods vs the change in nominal wages and average workweek
CPI increase -.3% (Aug ‘14)
Real wage change: +.6%
Average workweek change: +.0%
Average weekly earnings change: +.3%