1. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 1 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Environmental Scenario Analysis Overview and Approaches Thomas Henrichs European Environment Agency

2. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 2 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Overview & Approaches... Definitions of scenarios Elements of scenarios Goals of scenarios Types of scenarios How may scenarios Developing & Analysing scenarios Good scenarios

3. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 3 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Many different definitions exist... “A scenario is a sequence of events especially when imagined; especially : an account or synopsis of a possible course of action or events.” (Merriam-Webster Dictionary On-line, 2003) “Scenarios are hypothethical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focussing attention on causal processes and decision points.” (Kahn and Wiener, 1967) “Scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures. They reflect different assumptions about how current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new factors will come into play. (UNEP, 2002)

4. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 4 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Definition of scenarios (EEA) scenario … a plausible description of how the future may unfold based on a set of 'if-then' propositions. A typical environmental scenario includes a representation of the initial situation and a storyline that describes the key driving forces and the changes that lead to an image of the future. Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts.

5. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 5 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Elements of scenarios Current State situation in the base year of scenario Driving forces deteminants that influence changes choices/decisions that bring changes (Step-wise) Changes at the core of a scenario analysis depicting how the driving forces unfold storyline highlighting key features Image(s) of the future situation in the end year of scenario

6. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 6 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Types of environmental scenarios Exploratory vs Anticipatory Scenarios exploratory scenarios present -> future to explore uncertainties/driving forces/developments to test impacts of implementing specific policies antipatory scenarios (also ‘normative’ scenarios) present <- future to investigate how specific end state can be reached to show how to achieve environmental targets

7. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 7 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Types of environmental scenarios Baseline vs Alternative Scenarios baseline scenarios (also ‘reference’ scenarios) describe a future development / state in which no new policies or measures are implemented apart from those already adopted or agreed upon alternative scenarios (also ‘policy’ scenarios) take into account new policies or measures additional to those already adopted or agreed upon and/or that assumptions on key driving forces diverge from those depicted in a baseline scenario

8. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 8 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Types of environmental scenarios Qualitative vs Quantitative Scenarios qualitative scenarios are narrative descriptions of future developments (i.e. presented as storylines, diagrams, images, etc.) quantitative scenarios are numerical estimates of future developments (i.e. presented as tables, graphs, maps, etc.) usually based on available data, past trends and/or mathematical models

9. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 9 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Goals of environmental scenarios Education / Public Information to educate and teach students, citizens, pupils to raise awareness of policy-makers, stakeholders Science / Research to integrate information from different fields to explore possible developments Strategic Planning / Decision Support to gather different views and to identify issues to frame strategic issues, to identify alternatives to support policy measure development

10. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 10 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop How many scenarios? As many as possible … to represent the many views of the future … to represent the many options of the future As few as necessary … to avoid scenario fatigue … to make the process ‘handable’ Large projects with complex scenarios often aim for 2 to 4 scenarios Based on: EEA (2001)

11. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 11 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Combining approaches Quant. Scen. Data & Modelling Group(s) Qual. Scen Stakeholders EEA European Land Use Change Scenarios The main driving forces behind land use change are climate change, population growth and technical and economic development, particularly of the transport and agriculture sectors. The environmental impacts of land use change are complex, and may affect air quality, water quality and quantity, landscape structure and biodiversity … Experts ☺ Floods ☺ Biodiv. … ‘Story-and-Simulation‘ Based on: EEA (2001)

12. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 12 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop Option 2: First agree on a set of global scenarios, then develop local and regional scenarios. Revisit global scenarios Global–Local level integration Option 1: Develop global and local scenarios in parallel / iteratively Global-Level Scenarios Regional-level Scenarios Local-level Scenarios Level of Detail

13. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 13 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop What are good scenarios? Good scenarios should...... be plausible (or ‘not implausible‘)... be internally consistent and coherent... be constructed with rigour, detail & creativity... meet the goals of scenario exercise!!!

14. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 14 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop EEA environmental scenarios portal http://scenarios.ewindows.eu.org Web Portal EEA Reports Links to institutions networks studies Resources News Glossary Bibliography

15. EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment SCENARIOS 15 - [THE] – GECAFS Scenario Workshop