1. Decision and experience:why don't we choose what makes us happy
Author : Christopher K. Hsee and Reid Hastie
Source : Trends in Cognitive Sciences Volume 10, Issue 1, January 2006, Pages 31-37
指導教授：戴敏育老師
報告者:淡江大學資訊管理系碩士班
吳至偉
日期：2011/10/21

2. outline Introduction Failures to predict future experience accurately
Failures to follow predictions
Summary

3. Introduction Fundamental assumption of classic economic theory
People are able to identify and choose what is best for them
Are people really able to choose what is best for them?
Recent findings from behavioral-decision research
People are not always able to choose what yields the greatest happiness or best experience

5. Failures to predict future experience accurately
Behavioral-decision researchers have identified several systematic biases
Impact bias
Projection bias
Distinction bias
Memory bias
Belief bias

6. Impact bias People often overestimate the impact of an affective event
One cause of this impact bias is focalism
predictors pay too much attention to the central event and overlook context events
Another cause of impact bias is immune neglect
after an emotion-evoking event happens, people tend to rationalize or make sense of it

7. Projection bias
People making predictions and people experiencing are often in different arousal states
Projection bias occurs not only when experiencers are others
Projection bias can lead to choices that one will regret

8. Distinction bias
Distinction bias occurs because predictors and experiencers are in different evaluation modes(single or joint-evaluation)
Distinction bias can also lead to non-optimal choices

9. Memory bias
Predictions of future experiences are often based on memories of related past experiences
memory is fallible and introduces systematic biases into evaluations
A classic experiment by Kahneman and co-authors

10. Belief bias
A guide of hedonic forecasts is people’s lay theories of what makes them happy or unhappy
One common belief is more choice options are always better

12. Failures to follow predictions
Decision- makers need to act on their predictions
Decision- makers variously choose the option that has these characters
Impulsivity
rule-based choice
lay rationalism
medium maximization

13. Impulsivity A major cause of sub-optimal decisions is impulsivity
The choice of an immediately gratifying option at the cost of long-term happiness
overeating, avoiding medical exams, taking drugs, and squandering savings

14. Rule-based decisions
Decision-makers sometimes base their choices on rules for good behavior rather than predicted experience
Some examples of decision rules
seek variety
don’t waste

15. Lay rationalism Decision-makers strive to be rational
the desire for rationality can lead to less rational decisions
Three specific manifestations of lay rationalism
lay economism
lay scientism
lay functionalism

16. Medium maximization
Often when people exert effort to obtain a desired outcome, the immediate reward they receive is not the outcome itself, but a medium
people work harder and harder to accumulate more and more wealth, but are not in fact happier

18. Summary
For decades, behavioral-decision researchers have studied inconsistencies in choices, demonstrating
In recent years, decision researchers have studied directly when decisions are sub-optimal
two general reasons for the failure
prediction biases
failures to follow predictions

19. Summary
Many social policies(free choice of health providers, retirement plans)are built upon the assumptions that people know their own preferences and that what people choose must be in their best interests
The behavioral-decision-research findings we have reviewed here cast doubt on these assumptions

20. Decision and experience:why don't we choose what makes us happy
報告者:淡江大學資訊管理系碩士班
吳至偉
Q&A