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Monetary Policy Report February 2010. Upturn on more solid ground.

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Presentation on theme: "Monetary Policy Report February 2010. Upturn on more solid ground."— Presentation transcript:

1 Monetary Policy Report February 2010

2 Upturn on more solid ground

3 International growth increasing GDP in Sweden, the euro area and the USA % % Quarterly percentage change calculated as annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

4 Growing confidence Purchasing managers’ index Index over 50 indicates growth Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Markit Economics and Swedbank

5 More positive signals on the labour market Employed (thousands), seasonally-adjusted data, 3-month sliding average Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

6 Financial market risks declining TED spread, basis points Note. The spread is calculated as the difference between the 3-month interbank rate and 3-month treasury bills. Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

7 But recovery from a low level Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

8 Employment has fallen less than expected % % Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Pre- 2001 employment data has been spliced by the Riksbank.

9 Unemployment still high Percentage of labour force, seasonally-adjusted data % % Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Redshank's forecast, 15-74 years. Sources: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

10 Lower cost pressures % % Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

11 Stronger krona TCW exchange rate, index 1992-11-18 = 100 Anm. Utfallen är dagskurser och prognoserna avser kvartalsgenomsnitt. Streckad linje avser Riksbankens prognos. Source: The Riksbank

12 Inflation declining % % Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

13 From a crisis interest rate to monetary policy in a downturn % % Source: The Riksbank

14 The repo rate path- a forecast not a promise Higher wage increases Weaker krona Lower wage increases Higher labour supply % Source: The Riksbank

15 Upturn on more solid ground

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