1. Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities to Sustainable Development From Regional Context and Outcomes of Cop-15
By Khim Lay, Assistant Country Director and Team Leader
Environment and Energy Unit, UNDP Cambodia
20-21 January 2010

2. Outline Climate Change Basic: Real or Note, Causes and Impacts
Climate Change Vulnerability at regional level (Southeast Asia)
Climate Change Impacts on Human Development and Poverty Reduction
Global Solutions: Outcomes of Cop 15: Challenges and Opportunities
Proposed recommendations: Avoid dangerous climate change and building national readiness

3. Climate Change? GREENHOUSE EFFECT EARTH SUN GREENHOUSE GASES (GHGs)
SUNLIGHT
In atmosphere about (8-10 km from earth), there is a Greenhouse gases (GHGs) (Co2, Methan, Ozone). GHGs maintain the earth’s temperature at the mean of 16  C for earth’s life.
GHGs act as a blanket to trap the heat from the earth.
Increased concentration of GHGs- make the blanket thinker, prevent more heat escaping from the earth into the space.
Over the long term period ( years), this phenomena causes the rise of temperature on earth, change the pattern of long term weather conditions - climate change.
INFRARED RADIATION
GHGs
GHGs
GHGs
EARTH

4. Climate Change and Ozone Layer
Layer of GHGs is about 8-10 km from earth surface while ozone layer is km from earth surface.
GHGs: CO2, Methane and Ozone
Ozone: Oxygen layer consists of oxygen atoms, oxygen gas and ozone gas.
Global warming will lead to a weaker Oxon layer
Over Antarctica, the Ozone hole is three times the size of the United States
Scientists believe that Global Warming will lead to a weaker Ozone layer, because as the surface temperature rises, the stratosphere (the Ozone layer being found in the upper part) will get colder, making the natural repairing of the Ozone slower.
NASA, for example, reports that by 2030, “climate change may surpass chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) as the main driver of overall ozone loss.”
The Ozone layer protects all life on Earth from the harmful effects of the Sun’s rays. It has been depleting for many years now. Scientists have said that currently over Antarctica the Ozone hole is three times the size of the United States and growing.
Also, according to scientists, more than 60 percent of the ozone layer blanketing the Arctic Circle was lost in the 1999/2000 winter.
Also, September 9 to 10, 2000, the ozone hole stretched over a populated city for the first time. It was in Punta Arenas, a southern Chile city of about 120,000 people, exposing residents to very high levels of ultra violet radiation.
The ozone depletion has also been correlated with higher levels of cancer in humans and animals.

5. Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.
Day to day status and (short term) changes in the status of the atmosphere in terms of meteorological parameters: rainfall, temperatures, pressure, etc.
Climate
Average weather over a period of time ranging from months to thousand/millions of years.
Can be perceived by people (bad, good, cold, warm, rainy, extremes - heat waves, downpours, cold spells)
Cannot be perceived – needs science. Concerns the status of the entire Earth system, (atmosphere, land, oceans, snow, ice and living things)
Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.

6. Climate Change Is Real or Not?
Rising Temperatures
Changes in:
- Precipitation & soil evaporation
- Sea level
- Frequency & intensity of extreme events
- Ecosystem distribution & composition

7. Causes of Climate Change
Increase in Green House Gases mainly due to human activities such as:
Burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) to generate energy
Land use change and deforestation
This leads to Greenhouse Effect – increase in GHGs in atmosphere preventing heat to escape into the space, keeping the earth warmer

8. Erosion, inundation, salinisation, stress marshes, wetlands
Not just an Environmental Issue – but also Development Issue
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
Loss of habitat, species and protective ecosystems, changes in forest composition, migratory shifts
WATER
RESOURCES
Variability in water supply, quality and distribution. More competition and cross-border conflicts over water resources
AGRICULTURE
Less predictability in crop yield, changing irrigation demand, growing risk of pest infestations
COASTAL
SYSTEMS
Erosion, inundation, salinisation, stress marshes, wetlands
PUBLIC
HEALTH
Increasing incidents of infectious, water-borne and vector-borne diseases, heat stress & mortality, additional public health costs
Social stresses, economic losses, increased poverty, Unsustainable Growth

9. Economic Implications
Effects are cumulative, irreversible and global
Inverse relationship between vulnerability and responsibility
Unequal impact - the poorest people especially at the local community affected the earliest and most
Significant socio-economic implications
Cost of inaction – estimates vary:
Cost of inaction estimates
By:
5-20% of global GDP
Stern Review, 2006
1-5% global GDP for 4 C warming (more for developing countries)
IPCC, 2007
6.7% of GDP in four SE Asia countries
ADB, 2009
The Stern Review – one of the largest, most known and influential report on the economics of climate change – has described climate change as the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.
It argued that the annual costs of stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions are likely to be around 2% of global GDP by 2050, while inaction against global warming would lead to a reduction in GDP by 5 to 20%.
The 4th Assessment Report of IPCC (2007) also predicted that global mean losses could be 1-5% GDP for 4 degrees Celcius of warming, while developing countries are expected to experience larger percentage of losses.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

10. Relevance to MDGs
MDG Goals
Examples of phenomena aggravated by Climate Change
Food insecurity, infrastructure loss, reduced agriculture productivity, employment and economic growth
Loss of livelihood assets, displacement/migration, cut back access to education
Natural resources depletion, reduced agriculture productivity, etc.  additional burdens for women
Increased vector-borne diseases, heat-related mortality, declining quantity and quality of water supply
Negative impact on quality and productivity of natural resources and ecosystems
Climate change as a global phenomenon calls for a collective response
Source:

11. Composition of Vulnerability
Severe climatic events; floods; drought; sea level rise
Level of CC Vulnerability
Population density; extent of protected area
Climatic Hazards
Sensitivity
Lack of Adaptive Capacity
Socio-economic factors: Human Development,
poverty, inequality, technology & infrastructure: power supply, irrigation, road, communication, …
Adapted from EEPSEA 2009

12. Human and Ecological Sensitivity Map
1. Population density and protected areas

13. Multiple Climate Hazard Map
1. The scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1).

14. Adaptive Capacity Map Overall, areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptive
capacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR.
Degree to which adjustments are made to mitigate potential damages from CC impacts
1. Socio economic
Human development index(standard of living; longevity, education); poverty incidence; income inequality;
2. Technology
Electricity coverage; extent of irrigation system,
3. Infrastructure
road density,
Communication

15. Climate Change Vulnerability Map
Low vulnerability
, moderate vulnerability
, High vulnerability.
So how prepared are we in Southeast Asia to face climate change, which is already happening?
According to a recent study by EEPSEA, the region is highly vulnerable to its impacts.
Here the vulnerability is measured by looking at degree of risk / exposure to climatic hazards, sensitivity due to population density etc., as well as adaptive capacity of people or society as a composite index of socio-economic factors, technology and infrastructure.
Capacity to adapt to climate change and overall climate change vulnerability is closely correlated with the level of development. That means the less a country is developed in socio-economic and human development terms, the more the country is vulnerable to climate change.
Note Cambodia’s high vulnerability in this map.
Source: Reproduced with permission from EEPSEA. Vulnerability as composite of exposure to climatic hazards, sensitivity to the hazards, and adaptive capacity

16. Outcomes of Copenhagen Cop 15
Seal the deal was not achieved
Copenhagen Accord- political statement not a legal binding document
Request all countries to associate with it by Feb 2010
Request for further negotiation to transform it to become a legal biding document
Request developed countries to set quantified economy-wide emission targets in annex I and developing countries to set nationally appropriate mitigation actions in annex II.

17. Contents of the Copenhagen Accord
Recognize CC is one of the greatest challenges of our time, calling for strong political will in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities
Recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius, on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development
Call for international cooperation in achieving the hold of increase of 2 degree Celsius to avoid negative consequences on efforts of social and economic development and poverty eradication of developing countries.
Recognize the development of a low-emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development.
Adaptation is a challenge faced by all countries. Enhanced action and international cooperation on adaptation is urgently required

18. Contents of the Copenhagen Accord (cont.)
Agree that developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and capacity-building
Recognize the crucial role of reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation and the need to enhance removals of greenhouse gas emission by forests
Agree on the need to provide positive incentives to such actions through the immediate establishment of a mechanism including REDD-plus, to enable the mobilization of financial resources from developed countries
Decide to pursue various approaches, including opportunities to use markets, to enhance the cost-effectiveness of, and to promote mitigation actions.

19. Contents of the Copenhagen Accord (cont.)
Scaled up, new and additional funding shall be provided to developing countries
The collective commitment by developed countries is to provide new and additional resources, including forestry and investments of USD 30 billion for the period
Developed countries commit to mobilize 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries.
A High Level Panel will be established to study the contribution of the potential sources of revenue,
Decide that the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund shall be established
Decide to establish a Technology Mechanism to accelerate technology development and transfer
Call for an assessment of the implementation of this Accord to be completed by 2015

20. We must avoid dangerous climate change
-Reducing the demand on fuel:
Use fusil efficiently,
Save energy,
Promote energy efficiency the building
Clean development mechanism
Controlling land use change and deforestation
Making forest sustainably managed and used including forest plantation
Conserving ecosystem and managing protected areas to enhance and conserve carbon stock (REDD plus)
Reducing dependency on wood energy and promoting renewable energy technologies
Making agricultural land use more productive
Controlling big land use change and making land use more sustainable to reduce pressures on forest land
National Readiness to promote Reduction Emission from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)

21. Building National Readiness by 2015 and beyond
Right public perceptions on CC issues
Right policy and plans
Right institutional set up, coordination and effective international and regional cooperation
Right programme and decision on investment
Building stronger resilience infrastructure and facility
Improving knowledge on science and technologies through formal education, research, sharing and dialogues and technology transfers
Policy performance evaluation and lessons learned

22. “Your planet needs you” UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon
THANK YOU!