1. www.cfib.ca Communities in Boom: Ted Mallett VP & Chief Economist Feb 19, 2013 Levering growth through entrepreneurship

2. www.cfib.ca About CFIB Non-partisan lobby group representing privately owned businesses 109,000 members, all industry sectors, regions 100% financed by membership, no government or sponsorship revenues

3. www.cfib.ca Recent CFIB accomplishments Raising public awareness of value of entrepreneurship Regulatory budget with hard targets Tax credit for expanded payrolls Protection or enhancement of small biz tax CIT Protection of lifetime capital gains exemptions. Holding lid on damaging CPP reforms Small Business Saturday

4. www.cfib.ca What Main Street looks like Not just the retail strip, includes industrial parks, class B office towers and rural backyards Roughly half the economy 99% of businesses An entrepreneur lives next door

5. www.cfib.ca SMEs defy generalization Not a homogeneous sector Leaders and followers All personality types: Forward lookers, backward lookers, child geniuses, the naïve, anti-socials, über-socials, money-driven, cause-driven, technophiles, technophobes There are winners and losers at any point of the business cycle Boom   Recession

6. www.cfib.ca Axioms Business churns, 30-60% every 5 years Most jobs created in next ten years will be from businesses not yet started <1% of businesses are fast growing High growth firms are more common in low and medium tech sectors How do we know? Can one pick winners? Opportunity based entrepreneurship outranks necessity- based by 6 to 1 Entrepreneurial sweet spot age 45-65

7. www.cfib.ca Reasons for Self-employment gains Technology for big business: doing more with fewer employees Technology for small businesses: more mobile, smaller unit sizes, better pricing Demographics Tax structure

8. www.cfib.ca Employment trends, by org size

9. www.cfib.ca Employment by size, class of worker

10. www.cfib.ca Employment Dynamics – Employees, 2008 Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Employment Analysis Prgm, Cat 11-622-M no.025

11. www.cfib.ca Employment Dynamics – 2008 data Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Employment Analysis Prgm, Cat 11-622-M no.025

12. www.cfib.ca Employment Dynamics – 2008 data Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Employment Analysis Prgm, Cat 11-622-M no.025

13. www.cfib.ca Employment Dynamics – 2008 data Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Employment Analysis Prgm, Cat 11-622-M no.025

14. www.cfib.ca Entrepreneurship and GDP Complex relationship -’ve correlation with factor, efficiency based economies +’ve correlation with innovation based economies Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor

15. www.cfib.ca Economy tied to small business confidence

16. www.cfib.ca

17. Employment plans General state of business

18. www.cfib.ca Communities in Boom CFIB was approached by National Post to create an objective measurement of community entrepreneurship We questioned if it was even possible Recognized that success has many colours Step 1 capture data Step 2 organize Emphasize high scores, not low ones

19. www.cfib.ca Data Criteria Connection with entrepreneurship Available for all local economic regions (CMAs and CAs) Consistent over time Updated regularly Unique dimension Open to critique, new suggestions

20. www.cfib.ca Standardization of data Standardization ensures numbers are compared on same scale Source data: highest figure given value of 100, lowest: zero. Middle scores given relative placement within that range

21. www.cfib.ca Variables Presence: 25pts  % growth in #business establishments  Business establishments/capita  Self-employment / total employment  Industry diversity (goods-services mix)

22. www.cfib.ca Variables Perspective: 35pts  1-yr expected business performance (%resp=stronger)  3-month full-time hiring expectations (%resp=‘add’)  Overall state of business (%resp=‘good)’  #building permits issued/capita  Life satisfaction (%resp=‘satisfied’)

23. www.cfib.ca Variables Policy: 40pts  Concern – cost of local govt (%resp)  Concern – local govt awareness of smallbiz (%resp)  Concern – local govt regulations  Commercial /residential property tax  BizPal

24. www.cfib.ca Results

25. www.cfib.ca Results Saint John Bathurst Fredericton, Moncton Miramichi

26. www.cfib.ca Results Presence (25) Perspective (35) Policy (40)Total (rank) Grande Prairie AB 17232565 (1) Miramichi11182352 (26) Fredericton9172450 (40) Moncton9192250 (45) Bathurst9162348 (54) Saint John11122245 (78) Sarnia ON7101734 (103)

27. www.cfib.ca Stay tuned – Oct 2013 www.cfib.ca @CFIBeconomics