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The Influence of Extratropical Transition on Poleward Rossby Wave Breaking Lisa-Ann Quandt, J. H. Keller 1, S. C. Jones 1, A. Schneidereit 2, D. H. Peters.

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Presentation on theme: "The Influence of Extratropical Transition on Poleward Rossby Wave Breaking Lisa-Ann Quandt, J. H. Keller 1, S. C. Jones 1, A. Schneidereit 2, D. H. Peters."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Influence of Extratropical Transition on Poleward Rossby Wave Breaking Lisa-Ann Quandt, J. H. Keller 1, S. C. Jones 1, A. Schneidereit 2, D. H. Peters 2 Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research – Tropospheric Research (IMK-TRO) Weather Systems: Dynamics and Predictability (S. C. Jones) 1 DWD, Offenbach, Germany 2 IAP, Kühlungsborn, Germany

2 08/18/142 1. Motivation Extratropical Transition (ET) (Jones et al., 2003, Klein et al., 2000,...) former Tropical Cyclone (TC) moves to the North new environment new storm characteristics (Frontogenesis) At upper levels: Interaction between the former TC and the Jet Stream (Davis et al., 2008)  ET System supports upper level Diffluence. Satellite images: www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2006ams_cyclone.html

3 08/18/143 Rossby Wave Breaking (RWB) Diffluent Flow is required for P2 RWB. Idealized picture of asymmetric RWB events in a horizontal plane indicated by potantial vorticity (black lines): cyclonically sheared waves breaking predominatly in poleward (P1) or equatorward (LC2) direction, and anticyclonically sheared waves breaking predominantly in poleward (P2) or equatorward (LC1) direction; black arrows: westerly jet with horizontal shear; dashed lines: geopotential of a basic flow; and white arrows: meridional eddy fluxes down the gradient of the westerly jet. [Gabriel & Peters, 2008]

4 08/18/144 Hypothesis Diffluent FlowExtratropical Transition P2 Rossby Wave Breaking Diffluent Flow Is there a connection between ET and P2 RWB?

5 08/18/145 2. Approach Ensemble forecasts of ECMWF Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis Fuzzy Clustering Suitable forecasts? Largest variability? Different scenarios? Can we observe a RWB event during ET? Subsequent Blocking? How to quantify that observation?  Wave Activity Flux (WAF)

6 08/18/146 3. Results of Hurricane Noel (2007) EOF Analysis Initialisation time: 10-31-2007 12 UTC Shown Quantities: Potential Temperature @ 2 PVU (shaded) and EOFs (red lines)

7 08/18/147 Comparison (with/without ET of Noel) Initialisation time: 10-31-2007 12 UTC Shown Quantities: Potential Temperature @ 2 PVU (shaded) and SLP (blue lines) With ETWithout ET

8 08/18/148 With ET Without ET 108 h 156 h 192 h

9 08/18/149 Wave Activity Flux (Takaya & Nakamura, 1997) Shown Quantities: PV @ 320 K (shaded), Geopotential Height @ 1000 hPa (black lines) & RWB-P2 (blue dotted lines) Figure: made by Andrea Schneidereit 11-05-2007

10 08/18/1410 4. Results of Hurricane Jeanne (2004) Initialisation time: 09-20-2004 00 UTC Shown Quantities: Potential Temperature @ 2 PVU (shaded) SLP (blue lines) on the left and Wind Velocity with Wind Vectors @ 200 hPa on the right 108 h 156 h Case with ET

11 08/18/1411 5. Observed Interactions Trough Interaction Ridge Interaction Poleward anticyclonic RWB (P2) Poleward cyclonic RWB (P1) Suppressed equatorward anticyclonic RWB (LC1) with ETwithout ET

12 08/18/1412 6. Conclusion Diffluent FlowExtratropical Transition P2 Rossby Wave Breaking Diffluent Flow Is there a connection between ET and P2 RWB?

13 08/18/1413 6. Conclusion Diffluent FlowExtratropical Transition P2 Rossby Wave Breaking Diffluent Flow Is there a connection between ET and P2 RWB? Yes, it seems that ET may influence RWB!

14 08/18/1414 7. Summary Research Question: Does ET influence poleward RWB? Approach: Comparison of cases with and without ET Data: Ensemble forecasts (ECMWF) EOF Analysis + Fuzzy Clustering WAF Results: observed influence of ET on RWB interaction dependent on phasing importance of generation of upper level vortex

15 08/18/1415 7. Summary Research Question: Does ET influence poleward RWB? Approach: Comparison of cases with and without ET Data: Ensemble forecasts (ECMWF) EOF Analysis + Fuzzy Clustering WAF Results: observed influence of ET on RWB interaction dependent on phasing importance of generation of upper level vortex Thanks for your Attention! Questions? Thanks for your Attention! Questions?

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