Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Multi-model ensemble hydrometeorological modelling of the 4 November 2011 Genoa, Italy flash flood in the framework of the DRIHM project Alan Hally, Olivier.

Published bySaige Stedman Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Multi-model ensemble hydrometeorological modelling of the 4 November 2011 Genoa, Italy flash flood in the framework of the DRIHM project Alan Hally, Olivier."— Presentation transcript:

1 Multi-model ensemble hydrometeorological modelling of the 4 November 2011 Genoa, Italy flash flood in the framework of the DRIHM project Alan Hally, Olivier Caumont, Olivier Nuissier, Véronique Ducrocq (CNRS – Météo-France), Évelyne Richard, Juan Escobar (CNRS – Laboratoire d’Aérologie), Antonio Parodi, Nicola Rebora, Elisabetta Fiori, Fabio Delogu, Fabio Pintus (CIMA), Andrea Clematis, Daniele D'Agostino, Antonella Galizia, Alfonso Quarati, Emanuele Danovaro (CNR-IMATI), Luis Garrote (UPM), Maria Carmen Llasat (Univ. Barcelona), Quillon Harpham (HR Wallingford), Albrecht Weerts, H.R.A. Jagers (Deltares), Arnold Tafferner, Caroline Forster (DLR), Vladimir Dimitrijević, Ljiljana Dekić, Marija Ivković, Ana Mihalović (RHMSS), Richard Hooper (CUAHSI)

2 What is DRIHM? 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014 An FP7-funded project (2011-2015) gathering computer-science experts and hydrometerological researchers from 10 European and US institutions.

3 What is DRIHM? An FP7-funded project (2011-2015) gathering computer-science experts and hydrometerological researchers from 10 European and US institutions. What is the project’s main objective? Use cutting-edge information and communication technology to boost hydrometeorological research, with a focus on flash floods and ensemble prediction. 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

4 What is DRIHM? An FP7-funded project (2011-2015) gathering computer-science experts and hydrometerological researchers from 10 European and US institutions. What is the project’s main objective? Use cutting-edge information and communication technology to boost hydrometeorological research, with a focus on flash floods and ensemble prediction. What are the project’s technical goals? Develop a prototype e-Science environment that allows various users (researchers, citizen scientists) to provide and access hydrometeorological data and models and run complex hydrometeorological chains (from atmospheric simulations to hydraulic models through rainfall-discharge hydrological models) via a user-friendly interface. 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

5 Hydro-meteorological Chains 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

6 The DRIHM Distributed Infrastructure 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

7 Enabling new research paradigms WRFMeso-NHAROMERainFARMOBS DRiFt Hydrometeorological connections available initially No interoperability or standard interfacing Streamflow OBSRIBS Direct Hard-wired interface Gridded Data Point Series Data 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

8 Enabling new research paradigms WRFMeso-NHAROMERainFARMOBS DRiFtRIBSStreamflow OBS Hydrometeorological connections available initially No interoperability or standard interfacing DRIHM WRFMeso-NHAROMERainFARMOBS DRiFtRIBSStreamflow OBS NetCDF-CFWaterML 2 Hydrometeorological connections created through DRIHM Meteorological- Model-Bridge (MMB) Increased interoperability and standard interfacing Direct Hard-wired interface Gridded Data Point Series Data 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

9 A Mediterranean severe flash flood event A third of the average annual rainfall (450 mm) fell in 6 hours Caused by the Bisagno creek bursting its banks Six people were killed Genoa, Italy, 4th November 2011 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

10 4th November 2011 - Meteorological Details 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

11 4th November 2011 - Meteorological Details 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

12 Available Data and Numerical Setup 6 different simulated and observed rainfall sources (OBS, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, AROME, Meso-NH, RainFARM) These rainfall sources used to drive 3 different hydrological models (HBV, DRiFt, RIBS) 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

13 Available Data and Numerical Setup The characteristics of the different meteorological and hydrological ensembles performed for the case of the 4 November 2011 All simulations initialised at 00 UTC, 4 Nov. 2011, except Arome ensemble (18 UTC, 3 Nov. 2011). 6 different simulated and observed rainfall sources (OBS, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, AROME, Meso-NH, RainFARM) These rainfall sources used to drive 3 different hydrological models (HBV, DRiFt, RIBS) 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

14 Meteorological Simulations – 24h Precipitation 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

15 Meteorological Simulations – Ensembles AROME Ensemble – 8 members, perturbed IC and BC 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

16 Meteorological Simulations – Ensembles AROME Ensemble – 8 members, perturbed IC and BC Meso-NH Ensemble – 10 members, perturbed physical parameterisations 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

17 Hydrological Simulations 1 - RIBS (deterministic) 2 - RIBS (probabilistic) 3 - DRiFt (deterministic) 4 - HBV (deterministic) Peak observed discharge (800 m 3 /s) Warning threshold (400 m 3 /s) All hydrological models forced with MNH- MWF ensemble 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

18 Hydrological Simulations RIBS - Deterministic 1 – OBS 2 – AROME 3 – WRF-ARW 4 – MNH-ARP 5 – MNH-MWF 6 – WRF-NMM 7 - RainFARM 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

19 Hydrological Simulations RIBS - DeterministicRIBS - Probabilistic 1 – OBS 2 – AROME 3 – WRF-ARW 4 – MNH-ARP 5 – MNH-MWF 6 – WRF-NMM 7 - RainFARM 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

20 Hydrological Simulations RIBS - DeterministicRIBS - Probabilistic DRiFt - Deterministic 1 – OBS 2 – AROME 3 – WRF-ARW 4 – MNH-ARP 5 – MNH-MWF 6 – WRF-NMM 7 - RainFARM 1 – OBS 2 – AROME 3 – WRF-ARW 4 – MNH-ARP 5 – MNH-MWF 6 – WRF-NMM 7 - RainFARM 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

21 Hydrological Simulations RIBS - DeterministicRIBS - Probabilistic DRiFt - DeterministicHBV - Deterministic 1 – OBS 2 – AROME 3 – WRF-ARW 4 – MNH-ARP 5 – MNH-MWF 6 – WRF-NMM 7 - RainFARM 1 – OBS 2 – AROME 3 – WRF-ARW 4 – MNH-ARP 5 – MNH-MWF 6 – WRF-NMM 7 - RainFARM 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

22 Project Conclusions and Perspectives Successful exploitation of the DRIHM infrastructure for hydrometeorological research: Transparent interfacing of 6 simulated or observed rainfall sources with 3 hydrological models using Meteorological-Model-Bridge (MMB) Production of more than 1500 different scenarios, an in depth study of the physics and predictability of a chosen event, the design of efficient hydrometeorological ensembles, the propagation of uncertainties throughout a hydrometeorological forecasting chain, etc. Sensitivity to choice of hydrological model, but increased sensitivity to choice of simulated rainfall source Future work: Integration of additional components (models and services) in the DRIHM e- Infrastructure Further case studies (Muga flash-flood in Spain Nov. 2011, Flash-floods Serbia May 2014) Results and conclusions to be published in NHESS 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

23 http://www.drihm.eu/ 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

24 Numerical Model Domains WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, Meso-NH, AROME Models have different: domains, resolutions and configurations 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

25 Meteorological Simulations – 10m wind 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

Download ppt "Multi-model ensemble hydrometeorological modelling of the 4 November 2011 Genoa, Italy flash flood in the framework of the DRIHM project Alan Hally, Olivier."

Similar presentations

Medium-range Ensemble Streamflow forecast over France F. Rousset-Regimbeau (1), J. Noilhan (2), G. Thirel (2), E. Martin (2) and F. Habets (3) 1 : Direction.

Medium-range Ensemble Streamflow forecast over France F. Rousset-Regimbeau (1), J. Noilhan (2), G. Thirel (2), E. Martin (2) and F. Habets (3) 1 : Direction.
On the importance of meteorological downscaling for short, medium and long-range hydrological ensemble prediction over France G. Thirel (1), F. Regimbeau.

On the importance of meteorological downscaling for short, medium and long-range hydrological ensemble prediction over France G. Thirel (1), F. Regimbeau.
HyMeX Véronique Ducrocq, Philippe Drobinski Chairs of HyMeX Executive Committee CNRM-GAME,

HyMeX Véronique Ducrocq, Philippe Drobinski Chairs of HyMeX Executive Committee CNRM-GAME,
HyMeX (*) an experimental program dedicated to the hydrological cycle in Mediterranean

HyMeX (*) an experimental program dedicated to the hydrological cycle in Mediterranean
Introduction to data assimilation in meteorology Pierre Brousseau, Ludovic Auger ATMO 08,Alghero, 15-18 september 2008.

Introduction to data assimilation in meteorology Pierre Brousseau, Ludovic Auger ATMO 08,Alghero, september 2008.
Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.

Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.
Verification and calibration of probabilistic precipitation forecasts derived from neighborhood and object based methods for a convection-allowing ensemble.

Verification and calibration of probabilistic precipitation forecasts derived from neighborhood and object based methods for a convection-allowing ensemble.
Using Probalistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts PQPFs within a hydro-meteorological chain within a hydro-meteorological chain R. Marty, A. Djerboua,

Using Probalistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts PQPFs within a hydro-meteorological chain within a hydro-meteorological chain R. Marty, A. Djerboua,
SIPR Dundee. © Crown copyright Scottish Flood Forecasting Service Pete Buchanan – Met Office Richard Maxey – SEPA SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011.

SIPR Dundee. © Crown copyright Scottish Flood Forecasting Service Pete Buchanan – Met Office Richard Maxey – SEPA SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011.
Open session on Operational Oceanography -OS4.1/CL4.11 EGU2011-7488 Use of ensemble forecast meteorological fields to force a storm surge model Marco Bajo,

Open session on Operational Oceanography -OS4.1/CL4.11 EGU Use of ensemble forecast meteorological fields to force a storm surge model Marco Bajo,
Hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts for the 28 September 2012 (IOP8) extreme flash- flood in Murcia, Spain A. Amengual and V. Homar Grup de Meteorologia,

Hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts for the 28 September 2012 (IOP8) extreme flash- flood in Murcia, Spain A. Amengual and V. Homar Grup de Meteorologia,
Improving Excessive Rainfall Forecasts at HPC by using the “Neighborhood - Spatial Density“ Approach to High Res Models Michael Eckert, David Novak, and.

Improving Excessive Rainfall Forecasts at HPC by using the “Neighborhood - Spatial Density“ Approach to High Res Models Michael Eckert, David Novak, and.
Predicting lightning density in Mediterranean storms based on the WRF model dynamic and microphysical fields Yoav Yair 1, Barry Lynn 1, Colin Price 2,

Predicting lightning density in Mediterranean storms based on the WRF model dynamic and microphysical fields Yoav Yair 1, Barry Lynn 1, Colin Price 2,
Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification. Method NCEP Stage IV data used for precipitation verification – Stage IV is composite of rain fall observations and.

Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification. Method NCEP Stage IV data used for precipitation verification – Stage IV is composite of rain fall observations and.
Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.

Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.
Flood monitoring for ungauged rivers - Across the globe Beatriz Revilla Romero 1, Jutta Thielen 1, Peter Salamon 1 and Tom de Groeve 1, Damien Raynaud.

Flood monitoring for ungauged rivers - Across the globe Beatriz Revilla Romero 1, Jutta Thielen 1, Peter Salamon 1 and Tom de Groeve 1, Damien Raynaud.
1 Coordinating person: Eng. Antonio Parodi, PhD Overview.

1 Coordinating person: Eng. Antonio Parodi, PhD Overview.
Inclusion of potential vorticity uncertainties into a hydrometeorological forecasting chain: Application to a flash-flood event over Catalonia, Spain A.

Inclusion of potential vorticity uncertainties into a hydrometeorological forecasting chain: Application to a flash-flood event over Catalonia, Spain A.
INFSO-RI-508833 Enabling Grids for E-sciencE www.eu-egee.org FloodGrid application Ladislav Hluchy, Viet D. Tran Institute of Informatics, SAS Slovakia.

INFSO-RI Enabling Grids for E-sciencE FloodGrid application Ladislav Hluchy, Viet D. Tran Institute of Informatics, SAS Slovakia.
Phillip Bothwell Senior Development Meteorologist-Storm Prediction Center 3 rd Annual GOES-R GLM Science Meeting Dec. 1, 2010 Applying the Perfect Prog.

Phillip Bothwell Senior Development Meteorologist-Storm Prediction Center 3 rd Annual GOES-R GLM Science Meeting Dec. 1, 2010 Applying the Perfect Prog.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google