1. Foresight in the strategic programming of Horizon 2020
Nikos Kastrinos, Team Leader: Foresight
DG RTD A6: Science Policy, Foresight and Data
Presented at the ETTIS conference "Shaping Societal Security in the EU" , Brussels, 20/11/2014
* All views presented belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission

2. Contents Foresight and the EU (an ever changing relationship)
Strategic Programming in R&I: the EFFLA model and H2020
Our experience with foresight and strategic programming

3. Foresight in the EU: the early phases
1974: Europe + 30
1978: FAST
: FASTII (FP1)
1988 – MONITOR (FP2)
1989 FSU

4. Foresight in the EU: institutionalisation in R&I policy
: FP4
IPTS
ETAN
Socio-economic Research
1998 – 2014 (FP5, FP6, FP7)
Foresight research in the SSH programmes
Research into FS, FS community development, and policy FS studies
Often in collaboration with GOPA/BEPA and JRC-IPTS
EFFLA in the Innovation Union ( )
Emphasis on using foresight for R&I policy purposes

5. The current state of affairs: foresight in the EC
European Strategic Policy Centre (replacing BEPA)
ESPAS
JRC
Foresight and Behavioural Insights
CNECT
Digital Futures / Futurium
R&I
Foresight "main-streamed" (foresight projects and foresight in projects across the different parts of the programme)
Foresight in Strategic Programming: coordination and "sense-making"

6. Foresight in strategic programming: the EFFLA model

7. Strategic Programming in H2020
Provides a coherent, evidence-based approach to implementing the activities set out in the Horizon 2020 Specific Programme
Supports an integrated approach, for areas that cut across different challenges and for linking key enabling technologies to societal challenges
Is not about reprioritising – but maximises impact of EU funding by ensuring that the programme responds to new developments,
Covers the full research and innovation cycle, and contributes significantly towards the EU's overall policy objectives

8. Extrapolating from the first Strategic programme of H2020
Possible cycles:
December 2014: 2nd Strategic Programme
: strategic intelligence for 3rd strategic Programme
2015 – mid 2016: sense-making for 3rd Strategic Programme
December 2016 Third Strategic Programme
…..

9. Inputs to the strategic programming process
Own intelligence:
Programme management
Including foresight projects
Cross-cutting foresight
Including policy related foresight
Stakeholder consultations
Expert Advice
Member States' input

10. Our activities and experience
September 2013 – March 2014: a pilot with foresight inputs:
A workshop with experts / a study
A dedicated EFFLA policy brief
Pilot "sense-making" projects (ongoing) on:
Key long term Transformations in R, I and HE
Foresight and Trust
Junction of Health, Environment and the Bioeconomy
Aiming at contributing to the ideas underpinning strategic programme and work-programme texts

11. What have we learned?
All areas of H2020 are forward looking, but some are better than others at working with foresight
Absorption of foresight intelligence requires
a forward looking culture
"anticipatory governance" structures
discipline and good process planning
in foresight: trusted intelligence source / messages are key
in strategy processes: calendars are key

12. Thank you for your attention!