1. ARECS: ADVANCING RENEWABLE ENERGY with CLIMATE SERVICES Melanie Davis, Climate Services for Renewable Energy GEO European Project Workshop, 15 th April 2013, Barcelona

2. ARECS: Advancing Renewable Energy with Climate Services CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU) Facilitate mid to long-term planning, investment, and innovation for the wind & solar energy sector. Advance the availability, accuracy & usefulness of seasonal to decadal wind & solar forecasts. WHAT? HOW? To understand & manage risks & opportunities of future wind & solar resource variability. WHY? M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

3. ARECS – Seasonal Forecasts - Contingency plans - Early-warning systems - Instruction to power plant manager, grid operator, investor - Assess “load schedule” - Mobilise resources - Prepare measures ARECS 3 mths1 mth Mid-term, operational decisions: Production forecasting; Energy transport, balance, trade, maintenance; Extreme events Image: Catherine Vaughan

4. M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) ARECS – Decadal Forecasts Long-term, strategic decisions: Energy Infrastructure planning (“Smart Grid”); Renewable Investment: site selection, portfolio; Policy making. Identifying areas that are most vulnerable to climate variability over seasonal to decadal timescales.

5. RESEARCH INITIATIVES CLIMRUN: Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region: Responding to User Needs EUPORIAS: EUropean Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale SPECS: Seasonal to decadal climate predictions for the improvement of European Climate Services European Climate Services R&D ECOMS: European Climate Observations, Modelling and Services Horizon 2020 EERA: European Energy Research Association CLIMATEENERGY National Climate Services R&D: ARECS: Advancing Renewable Energy with Climate Services

6. FP7: EUPORIAS FP7: SPECS M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES ARECS Funding tbc.(COST CLIMATE KIC, FP7) GEO EN-01 CL-01

7. CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU) M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) 1. Identify the areas that are most vulnerable to seasonal variability. 2. Assess how the global forecast system can identify the areas in obj.1 3. Assess how well the global forecast system can reproduce the "observed" variable at specific times from global to local scales. ARECS OBJECTIVES

8. M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert, V.Guemas, CLIMRUN WP7. Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) Ensemble-mean correlation of 10m wind speed for ECMWF S4 - one month lead Winter (December, January, February) - start dates once a year on 1 st November from 1981-2010 M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) Forecast skill maps to assess the ability to predict wind resource variability

9. CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU) M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) 1. Identify the areas that are most vulnerable to seasonal variability. 2. Assess how the global forecast system can identify the areas in obj.1 3. Assess how well the global forecast system can reproduce the "observed" variable at specific times from global to local scales. 4. Analyse the future impact of variable renewable energy generation on i) existing and new power networks and ii) energy investment. 5. Engage and communicate with end users to demonstrate the value of seasonal to decadal forecasts in renewable energy decision making. ARECS OBJECTIVES

10. M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert, V.Guemas, CLIMRUN WP7. Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) Probability forecasts of 10m wind speed from ECMWF S4 - one month lead Winter forecast (December, January, February) - start date on 1 st November 2011 M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) 3-month forecast Operational probabilistic forecasts to assess the risk of wind resource variability 1-month forecast

11. M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert, V.Guemas, CLIMRUN WP7. Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) Quantifying wind energy yields, uncertainty & value using energy & economic 'impact' models M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)

12. ARECS END USERS END USERS BENEFIT Resource assessment services / Insurance Business opportunity Utilities (power plant and grid operators) Risk management & improved operations Energy investors Risk management Energy policy makersPlanning strategy

13. M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) ARECS OUTCOMES - Optimisation in the efficiency of solar and wind energy operations - Harmonisation of resource forecast activities across all timescales and industries - Establishment of a basic approach to resource forecasting and communications for solar and wind energy - Stimulate new business opportunities in energy resource forecasting

14. Melanie Davis Climate Services for Renewable Energy melanie.davis@ic3.cat GEO European Project Workshop, 15 th April 2013, Barcelona