1. AFFECTS Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space WP Lead: Dr. Aleksei Parnowski Space Research Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine WP Co-Lead: Claudia Borries Institute of Communications and Navigation, Neustrelitz, Germany ІКД WP4: Forecasting Tools and Modelling

2. Summary Objectives: Provide forecasting tools to forecast geomagnetic indices and TEC Time span: Months 4-33 (06.11 – 11.13), four deliverables on month 18 (08.12), and a milestone on month 20 (10.12) Lead: A.Parnowski (SRI) / C.Borries (DLR) Involved parties: All, except Astrium Total effort: 73.2 PM 2

3. Place in the big picture Direct interaction with all WPs. Coordination by WP1 Data provided by WP2 Mutual relations with WP3 on task 4.1 Results are integrated into FSI (WP5) Dissemination through WP6 3

4. Tasks Task 4.1: Development of alert system based on real-time monitoring and automated event detection (ROB, FHG, UoT, DLR) –Detection of large-scale events, related to WP3 Task 4.2: Development of forecast methods for Space Weather parameters (UGoe, ROB, SRI, DLR, SWPC) –Forecasting of parameters affecting the ionosphere (ROB, SRI, SWPC) –Forecasting of TEC (UGoe, DLR, SWPC) 4

5. Milestones and deliverables D4.1: Provision of software tool for forecasting indices (SRI) – report D4.2: Report on solar EUV characteristics (FHG) – report D4.3: Online provision of auroral alert and tracking system (UoT) – demonstration D4.4: Provision of software tool for forecasting perturbed TEC (DLR) – report MS4: Empirical TEC forecast model (DLR) 5

6. Analysis of workflow Tasks 4.1 and 4.2 are largely independent and don’t affect each other In task 4.1 different sub-tasks are also independent and can run in any order In task 4.2 sub-tasks 1 (EUV/X-ray) and 2 (geomagnetic indices) are prerequisites for sub- task 3 (TEC forecast model). Thus, the prior should be performed ASAP to ensure timely completion of sub-task 3, which is the main output of the whole WP4 and is a prerequisite for WP5 6

7. Tentative work plan 7

8. Effort per participant 8

9. Thank you for your kind attention!