1. Lesson 3 ODOT Analysis & Assessment

2. Analysis & Assessment Learning Outcomes As part of a small group, apply the two- part analysis by generating exposure- response profiles to predict risk to REC sustainability Distinguish between analysis and assessment

3. Analysis & Assessment Analysis Scoping Evaluate Identify useful information 2. Resource- Focused Analysis Conduct: 1. Action- Focused Analysis Document uses and limits of the information

4. Analysis 7 Assessment More Reading! Fritiofson v. Alexander

5. Analysis & Assessment The Fritiofson v. Alexander Five Part Test: 1.What is the geographic area affected by the project? 2.What are the resources affected by the project? 3.What are the other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable actions that have impacted these resources? 4.What were those impacts? 5.What is the overall impact on these various resources from the accumulation of the actions? Fritiofson v. Alexander

6. Assessment Useful Information Information should support informed decisions What is relevant to the decision makers? What is relevant to the public and stakeholders? What is the most efficient and effective means of collecting that information? How will this information be used to foster a better decision?

7. Two-Part Analytic Question To inform decisions, environmental impact analyses must be broken into two-parts: What effect does the action have on specific resources? i.e., action-focused What does that effect mean from the perspective of the resource itself? i.e., resource-focused

8. Assessment Scoping REC’s Selecting RECs for analyses Relevant to the Decision and Decision- makers? Provides the most useful information? Accepted as surrogate or indicator? Relevance to the decision at hand? Time and cost effective

9. Assessment Scoping REC’s Hydrology  Surface, Groundwater, Soil water Air  Air Quality, Visibility Biota  Representative, Unique, Imperiled Species and Communities; Habitats

10. Assessment Scoping REC’s Socioeconomics Education Services Traffic and Transportation Human Health Public and Emergency Services Community Cohesion Economic Stability

11. Assessment Scoping REC’s Noise Impacts  Humans, Wildlife, Aesthetic Visual Impacts  Viewsheds, Aesthetics, Cultural Impacts  Archeological, Historical, Architectural

12. Assessment Models of REC’s Uses of Models: Transparency and Clarity; Repeatable Analysis; Identification of Effective Mitigation Strategies; Acknowledgement of Uncertainties Two-Part Analysis

13. Assessment Scoping for RFFAs Other transportation projects … … airport, freight, and transit Other Federal agency activities … approved NEPA documents or projects under study Activities in approved land use and development plans Major private projects Reasonably foreseeable

14. Analysis Two-Part Analysis of Effects Action-Focused H Ø – 1 = effects are reasonably detectable Resource-Focused H Ø – 2 = effects contribute to factors that shift the REC across the threshold of sustainability into a new dynamic state

15. Analysis Looking for Degradation Sustainability and Thresholds Resilience and Internal Controls Most Probable State, Dynamic Equilibrium, Regime Feedbacks and Adjustments Cross-scale interactions

16. Analysis Action-Focused exposure-response profile cause-effect Resource-Focused Sustainability and optimize mitigation Mitigation alternate exposure – response profile offset other agent’s effects Cut opportunity costs

17. Analysis What are the Consequences, anyways? Action-Focused Develop exposure-response profile Resource-Focused Assess sustainability Mitigation Alternate exposure – response profile Alternate sustainability outcome Reduce Risk and Uncertainty Coherence Monitoring and Adaptive Management

18. Assessment & Analysis Reminder on ICI Nomenclature ►Proposed action or alternative under review must have a direct and/or indirect effect on a specific resource for the proposal or alternative to exert a cumulative influence ►If no direct and/or indirect effect to a specific resource is suspected, there is no need to consider cumulative effects to that resource

19. Analysis Assess REC’s Exposure Assess REC’s Response Assess Risk from Exposure-Response Profile

20. Analysis Action-Focused Generate Exposure-Response Profiles Evaluate the Profiles for Input to the Resource-Focused Effects Analysis

21. Analysis Action-Focused Generate Exposure-Response Profiles Use qualitative and quantitative techniques to estimate the magnitude and intensity of potentially significant action- focused effects, and to enhance comparative descriptions of future conditions

22. Analysis Risk analyses integrate exposure and response profiles to estimate the risk the Action poses to REC (especially the sustainability of the REC)

23. Analysis Exposure means co-occurrences or interactions between REC (reduced) and (deconstructed elements of) the proposed Action multiple orders: first, second, … multiple scales: spatial and temporal

24. Response Assessment Response of Resources to exposure This may be serial or multi-faceted exposure-responses Analysis

25. Exposure will tell us which individuals from particular Resource of Interest are likely to be exposed, over what area and time, and with what intensity Response will tell us what will happen to those particular Resources of Interest upon exposure

26. Analytic Framework Risk analyses consider the response profile, along with other stressors, to assess the REC’s and system’s resilience to perturbation and the potential of these stressors to push the REC and system across a threshold to an alternate structure and form.

27. Analysis Action-Focused Assess the Consequences Does exposure-response profile provide sound input to resource-focused part of effects analysis? Is the information useful for decision-making? Identify unacceptable exposure-response profiles or levels of uncertainty (mitigate?)

28. Analysis Resource-Focused What is the Overall Impact from the accumulation of actions?

29. Analysis Resource-Focused Identify the important exposure-response profiles or cause-and-effect relationships between the REC and proposed project Determine the magnitude and significance of cumulative effects

30. Analysis Resource-Focused Consider mitigation to reduce total effects, including adding new alternatives Monitor and, if warranted, Adapt Management

31. Analysis Resource-Focused Response Assessment Sustainability “Regulatory” Thresholds –Administrative: Statute, Rule, or Guidance –Community Standard or Perceived –“Natural” Poor Word Choice: “Regulatory” does not limit

32. Analysis Resource-Focused Thresholds Resilience Trends Sustainability (for complex systems, consider adjustments and feedbacks, too)

33. Sustainability System Response Sustainability and Thresholds Resilience and Internal Controls Most Probable State, Dynamic Equilibrium, Regime Feedbacks and Adjustments Cross-scale interactions

34. Trend of Resource Attribute

40. Analysis & Assessment Changing & Avoiding Outcomes Mitigation Monitoring Adaptive Management

41. Analysis & Assessment Documentation Draw Conclusions –What Do We Know (Supported by Data)? –What Do We Not Know (Assumptions and Extrapolations)? –Is What We Do Not Know Important For the Decision (Risk and Uncertainty)?

42. Analysis & Assessment Exercise Model REC and project ID “sustainable” for this REC Describe Interactions of REC and project Action-Focused Exposure-Response Profile Resource-Focused Risk to sustainability Identify Mitigation Options Monitoring or Adaptive Management to reduce Uncertainty

43. Analysis & Assessment Review As part of a small group, apply the two- part analysis by generating exposure- response profiles to predict risk to REC sustainability Distinguish between analysis and assessment