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INVESTING FOR A COLLEGE EDUCATION Perry Grossman Daphne Harris Radhames Nova Investments: FE823 Professor James L. Grant August 23, 2005
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Your Investment Objectives Invest now for your newborn’s college education in 18 years Save enough money to fund an Ivy League college, preferably Yale Make yearly deposit of $2,500 into portfolio and not worry about following stock performance Invest aggressively initially to get highest return
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Cost of Yale in 2023 Cost of Yale in 2005: $38,850 6% yearly rate of increase of college education Cost of one year in 2023: $107,711 Cost of four years: $471,194 Other expenses: $28,806 Total investment needed: $500,000
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Investment Cash Flow Timeline 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 $2,500 / yr ($125,000) / yr $5,000
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Investment Strategy Low maintenance investment Mutual funds over stocks Mutual funds over stocks Diversified between equity and bond funds Diversified between equity and bond funds Higher returns early in investment 90/10 equity to bond ratio first 10 years 90/10 equity to bond ratio first 10 years Lower risk later in investment 60/40 equity to bond ration once child enters college 60/40 equity to bond ration once child enters college
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Equity Funds Suggested FundR-SquaredBetaAlpha Sharpe Ratio Weight Fidelity Leveraged 631.3330.382.0750% Fidelity Real Estate 11.3719.061.5425% Fidelity Low Priced Stock 78.937.881.3225%
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Bond Funds Suggested FundR-SquaredBetaAlpha Sharpe Ratio Weight Fidelity Gov’t Income 971.17-1.51.49100%
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Portfolio Quarterly Returns Total Returns FLVCXFRESXFLPSXWeighted equity return q1'01-1.59-2.243.94-0.37 q2'019.0811.0212.910.52 q3'01-21.18-2.47-7.3-13.03 q4'01223.4516.4815.98 q1'02-1.967.546.972.65 q2'02-18.546.08-0.27-7.82 q3'02-3.44-8.8-16.98-8.17 q4'0227.391.665.9315.59 q1'034.41.49-6.041.06 q2'0344.069.9421.3129.84 q3'036.639.858.57.90 q4'0322.419.1513.8816.96 q1'045.4812.155.867.24 q2'042.5-5.381.240.22 q3'04-0.578.470.21.88 q4'0415.7616.5613.8315.48 q1'054.67-5.53-0.970.71 q2'051.7312.643.114.80 Average6.604.754.595.64 Total ReturnsFGOVX q1'012.17 q2'010.05 q3'015.17 q4'01-0.74 q1'02-0.35 q2'024.27 q3'026.23 q4'020.5 q1'030.81 q2'032.29 q3'03-0.71 q4'03-0.16 q1'042.8 q2'04-2.76 q3'042.86 q4'040.76 q1'05-0.33 q2'052.87 Average1.43
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Efficient Frontier Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3 Portfolio 4
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Equity to Bond Weights Years 0-10 90% equity, 10% bonds 90% equity, 10% bonds Years 11-15 80% equity, 20% bonds 80% equity, 20% bonds Years 16-17 70% equity, 30% bonds 70% equity, 30% bonds Years 18-21 60% equity, 40% bonds 60% equity, 40% bonds
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Investment Schedule Year90/1080/2070/3060/40 05,000.00 18,543.16 212,825.55 318,001.38 424,257.05 531,817.87 640,956.12 752,000.91 865,350.01 981,484.16 10100,984.43 11124,553.09 12 150,942.93 13 182,394.45 14 219,878.52 15 264,552.19 16 317,794.48 17 375,900.92 18 316,674.60 19 241,755.98 20 154,989.16 21 54,500.35
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Returns & Risk Versus Indices Regression analysis on 90/10 portfolio to the Index yields: R-squared of 88 percent Alpha of 4.82 Beta of 1.04 Total ReturnsWeighted Portfolio ReturnWeighted Index Return q1'01-0.12-10.48 q2'019.475.46 q3'01-11.21-12.93 q4'0114.319.51 q1'022.350.19 q2'02-6.61-11.65 q3'02-6.73-14.89 q4'0214.087.63 q1'031.04-2.79 q2'0327.0914.08 q3'037.042.26 q4'0315.2510.91 q1'046.801.79 q2'04-0.081.25 q3'041.98-1.42 q4'0414.018.37 q1'050.61-1.97 q2'054.611.51 Average5.220.38
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Portfolio Return on Index Return
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Conclusions Investment strategy comfortably will fund your child’s Yale education in 2023 Portfolio will yield returns higher than index funds and will require little effort Risk is moderate and will be reduced over the life of the portfolio
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DO YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS?
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