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Dayton Metropolitan Economy in Context Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group University of Dayton.

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Presentation on theme: "Dayton Metropolitan Economy in Context Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group University of Dayton."— Presentation transcript:

1 Dayton Metropolitan Economy in Context Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group University of Dayton

2 State of the Dayton Metro Area (in December Each Year, 2000-2014) Dayton lost 32,400 jobs in the two year period from December, 2007 to December, 2009. It has recovered 12,900 of those jobs in the last five years

3 State of the Dayton Metro Area: Last 4 Years (in December Each Year, 2009-2014) Growth was steady in the December 2009 to December 2012 period. Stagnation in 2013 and early 2014 has been reversed in last few months

4 Total Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, Dec. 2000-2014

5 Manufacturing Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the U.S., Dec. 2000-2014

6 Wholesale Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the U.S., Dec. 2000-2014

7 Retail Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the U.S., Dec. 2000-2014

8 Transportation and Utilities Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2014

9 Information Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2014

10 Financial Activities Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000- 2014

11 Prof. & Bus. Serv. Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000- 2014

12 Education & Health Services Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2014

13 Health Services & Social Assistance Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2014

14 Leisure & Hospitality Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000- 2014

15 Government Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2014

16 Federal Govt. Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2014

17 Local Govt. Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2014

18 The Income Piece

19 Average Weekly Earnings in Dayton and Cincinnati relative to Ohio and U.S., December 2007-2014 (2014 Constant Dollars)

20 Relationship to National Economy

21 Cyclical factors How closely linked is the Dayton Economy to the National Economy? From January, 2004 to December, 2014, 92% of variation in monthly Dayton Metro Area unemployment rate can be explained by variation in the U.S unemployment rate

22 United States, Dayton Metropolitan Area Monthly Unemployment Rates, January 2004-December 2014

23 United States, Dayton Metropolitan Area Monthly Unemployment Rates, September 2007-December 2014

24 Number of Unemployed in Dayton Metropolitan Areas, 1990- December 2014 From the height of unemployment, 33,949 fewer people unemployed but 20,129 fewer in work force than in Jan 2010 and only 13,820 more jobs

25 Forecasting the Next 3 years Note that the Dayton Metropolitan Areas has mirrored the Country as a whole closely in the last few years. What are the implications of the National Economic Forecast? Federal Government and Local Employment Declines Have Already Taken a Toll. Are we done?

26 Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank (1 rd Quarter Estimates) Unemployment Rate (%) CPI Inflation Rate (%) Real GDP (%) HeadlineCore Quarterly data: 2015:Q12.75.6-1.41.3 2015:Q23.05.51.61.7 2015:Q32.85.41.91.8 2015:Q42.85.22.01.8 2016:Q12.95.22.11.9 Annual average data: 2015 3.25.41.11.7 2016 2.95.12.11.9 2017 2.75.02.32.1 2018 2.74.9

27 Implications of National Forecast for the Dayton Metropolitan Economy United StatesDayton Metro Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate Number of Unemployed Quarterly data: 2015:Q12.75.64.5 17,700 2015:Q23.05.54.5 17,700 2015:Q32.85.44.5 17,700 2015:Q42.85.24.4 17,100 2016:Q12.95.24.4 17,100 Annual average data: 2015 3.25.44.5 17,600 2016 2.95.14.3 16,500 2017 2.75.04.3 16,500 2018 2.74.9 4.215,900

28 Defense Budget Constraints Number of Jobs Linked to Wright Patterson Air Force Base Activities ~ 25,000 to 30,000 Cuts are likely to be program specific for particular big ticket items, but there has already been an impact locally at Federal Government and Professional and Technical Service employment level. A Republican Congress is NO Guarantee of a loosening in Defense Budget constraints. Assuming a 10% drop in WPAFB related employment over a 3 to 4 year period, that implies 2500 to 3000 fewer jobs or an annual impact of about a 1000 jobs. It continues to represents a head wind on local job growth

29 The Good News Fuyao Glass +1000, Early 2015 Prologis P&G Distribution Center, +800 Early 2015 Emerson Climate Technologies Innovation Center +50 End of 2015

30 Summary The local economy’s rebound stalled out over 2013 and early 2014 due to declines in defense related professional and technical services employment BUT NOW Encouraging trends in Manufacturing, Transportation/Utilities, Professional & Business Services, Health Care and Gov’t Employment The unemployment rate remains below National Rates because of continued decline in the Civilian Labor Force Defense spending cuts will continue to create problems for WPAFB associated work. Job Growth may accelerate due to maturing economic development projects

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