1. Source: Nielsen Scan Track epos data to w/e 25.12.10 R Watson
Retail Overview Q4 2010
Source: Nielsen Scan Track epos data to w/e
R Watson

2. Total Seafood Retail Market Slows
In the 52 weeks to 25th December 2010 GB seafood retail market was worth £2.840 billion, up 0.64% on last year.
0.64%
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

3. Chilled Sector Drives Value Growth
Value/ £000s
MAT TO WE
MAT TO WE
MAT TO WE
MAT % Chg YA
TOTAL SEAFOOD
2,716,008
2,821,581
2,839,766
0.6
AMBIENT
464,347
509,995
486,547
-4.6
CHILLED
1,498,686
1,542,935
1,592,947
3.2
FROZEN
752,975
768,650
760,271
-1.1
TOTAL MEALS¹
199,428
204,747
211,430
3.3
TOTAL CHILLED MEALS
125,715
133,103
150,412
13.0
TOTAL FROZEN MEALS
73,712
71,644
61,018
-14.8
TOTAL SHELLFISH MEALS
36,656
41,400
51,097
23.4
TOTAL SHELLFISH²
426,941
440,805
447,135
1.4
TOTAL SHELLFISH
463,597
482,205
498,232
TOTAL AMBIENT SHELLFISH
14,481
14,103
13,618
-3.4
TOTAL CHILLED SHELLFISH
285,365
303,948
320,540
5.5
TOTAL FROZEN SHELLFISH
163,752
164,154
164,073
0.0
¹ includes shellfish meals, ² excludes shellfish meals
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

4. Total Seafood Retail Market Volume Falls
In the year ending , 377,468 tonnes of seafood was sold in the GB retail market, falling -1%
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

5. Chilled Sector Drives Volume Growth
Volume (tonnes)
MAT TO WE
MAT TO WE
MAT TO WE
MAT % Chg YA
TOTAL SEAFOOD
383,036
381,130
377,468
-1.0
AMBIENT
108,592
104,950
100,414
-4.3
CHILLED
135,859
140,884
142,980
1.5
FROZEN
138,585
135,295
134,074
-0.9
TOTAL MEALS¹
42,517
42,404
40,704
-4.0
TOTAL CHILLED MEALS
20,097
21,567
23,834
10.5
TOTAL FROZEN MEALS
22,419
20,837
16,869
-19.0
TOTAL SHELLFISH MEALS
5,832
6,613
8,093
22.4
TOTAL SHELLFISH²
39,394
40,890
40,535
TOTAL SHELLFISH
45,225
47,503
48,628
2.4
TOTAL AMBIENT SHELLFISH
1,560
1,525
1,452
-4.8
TOTAL CHILLED SHELLFISH
25,483
27,987
28,584
2.1
TOTAL FROZEN SHELLFISH
18,183
17,991
18,592
3.3
¹ includes shellfish meals, ² excludes shellfish meals
¹ includes shellfish meals, ² excludes shellfish meals
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

6. Market Segmentation Remains Unchanged
Chilled seafood still accounts for 56% of the market by value. There have been no significant changes in the segmentation of the seafood market compared to Q4 2009
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

7. Total Seafood De-values (Q4 2009 vs Q4 2010)
Q4: 12 WKS TO
Q4: 12 WKS TO
% Chg
Volume/ tonnes
TOTAL SEAFOOD
649,741
662,879 2
86,097
84,799 -2
CHILLED
360,197
371,952 3
32,639
31,941
FROZEN
180,262
183,135
30,795
31,653
AMBIENT
109,282
107,791 -1
22,663
21,204 -6
Q4 De-valuation lead by chilled and the strong de-valuation of Ambient
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

8. Frozen Sales Rally in Final Quarter of 2010
Value/ £000s
Q3: 12 WKS TO
Q4: 12 WKS TO
% Chg
Volume/ tonnes
TOTAL SEAFOOD
640,243
662,879 4
85,508
84,799 -1
FRESH
356,346
371,952
31,802
31,941
FROZEN
168,581
183,135 9
30,254
31,653 5
AMBIENT
115,316
107,791 -7
23,451
21,204
-10
Overall seafood sales for Q are up compared to Q3, with only Ambient performing poorly
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

9. Chilled Market Segmentation
MAT
Chilled Natural and Prepared are the largest segments in the Chilled sector with a combined 80% of the Chilled market by value and 70% by volume
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

10. Frozen Market Segmentation
MAT
Segments in the frozen sector are much more evenly spread
Natural has the largest share of the market by value
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

11. Chilled Segment Driven by Chilled Prepared
Value/ £000s
MAT 2YA
MAT YA
MAT TY to
MAT % Chg YA
TOTAL CHILLED
1,498,686
1,542,935
1,592,947
3.2
CHILLED NATURAL
815,041
824,284
825,998
0.2
CHILLED PREPARED
390,511
412,784
444,402
7.7
CHILLED SAUCE
126,596
128,367
144,927
12.9
CHILLED CAKES
60,550
65,405
64,478
-1.4
CHILLED BREADED
50,048
53,899
57,230
6.2
CHILLED SUSHI
40,897
47,154
45,868
-2.7
CHILLED BATTER
13,671
9,817
8,504
-13.4
CHILLED FINGERS
598
446
866
94.4
Prepared and Sauce are also showing good growth up 7.7% and 12.9% respectively
Fingers are growing at +94% (albeit from a small base) up further from the 77% in Q3
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

12. Chilled Volume Growth Slows
Volume/ tonnes
MAT 2YA
MAT YA
MAT TY to
MAT % Chg YA
TOTAL CHILLED
135,859
140,884
142,980
1.5
CHILLED NATURAL
61,945
62,675
59,638
-4.8
CHILLED PREPARED
35,121
37,473
40,196
7.3
CHILLED SAUCE
19,787
20,375
22,628
11.1
CHILLED CAKES
7,759
8,837
8,468
-4.2
CHILLED BREADED
6,240
6,573
7,244
10.2
CHILLED SUSHI
2,967
3,539
3,534
-0.2
CHILLED BATTER
1,749
1,162
1,012
-12.9
CHILLED FINGERS 69 52 99
89.0
Chilled volume growth is slowing with Natural, Cakes, Sushi & Batter and in decline.
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

13. Frozen Segment in Decline
Value/ £000s
MAT 2YA
MAT YA
MAT TY to
MAT % Chg YA
TOTAL FROZEN
752,975
768,650
760,271
-1.1
FROZEN NATURAL
191,959
209,124
206,784
FROZEN FINGERS
124,157
129,867
127,833
-1.6
FROZEN BATTER
125,610
121,886
123,560
1.4
FROZEN BREADED
132,936
122,963
123,143
0.1
FROZEN SAUCE
98,890
107,746
102,962
-4.4
FROZEN PREPARED
59,107
56,260
54,956
-2.3
FROZEN CAKES
20,316
20,745
20,981
1.1
Frozen Sauce halts its growth on the back of NPD push
Frozen Batter and Frozen Breaded have stabilised after a period of decline
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

14. Frozen Volume Decline Stabilises
Volume/ tonnes
MAT 2YA
MAT YA
MAT TY to
MAT % Chg YA
TOTAL FROZEN
138,585
135,295
134,074
-0.9
FROZEN NATURAL
25,356
26,000
26,690
2.7
FROZEN FINGERS
29,565
28,871
28,616
FROZEN BATTER
21,277
20,829
22,104
6.1
FROZEN BREADED
20,785
19,538
20,660
5.7
FROZEN SAUCE
27,518
26,060
21,957
-15.7
FROZEN PREPARED
8,558
8,388
8,050
-4.0
FROZEN CAKES
5,527
5,598
5,985
6.9
Although frozen Sauce sales remain steady the decline in volume may indicate the market is becoming more premium than the traditional products they replace
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

15. Three Year Value Trends
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

16. Three Year Volume Trends
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

17. Top 5 Species by Sector – to 24.12.10
New Species Frozen
New species

18. Limited Supply Keeps Salmon Prices High (Q3 vs Q4 2010)
Value (£'000)
Volume (tonnes)
Q3 (to 02/10/2010)
Q4 (to 25/12/10)
% change
TOTAL SALMON
139,515
154,549 11
10,154
10,840 7
CHILLED SALMON
110,061
124,086 13
6,360
6,970 10
AMBIENT SALMON
19,161
20,368 6
2,456
2,604
FROZEN SALMON
10,293
10,095 -2
1,339
1,267 -5
Norwegian Salmon export prices rose 20.2% in 2010 ( Globefish)
By the close of 2010 the Chilean industry is showing signs of recovery. But continued demand and limited supply will keep prices high into 2011

22. Q4 Trends analysis
Total seafood value grew by 4% in Q4, principally driven by an 11% increase in total Salmon. Caused by seasonal demand and easing of supply. (2.0% over 52 wks)
Compared to Q3, the value of chilled sector grew by 4% and frozen by 9%. With ambient falling by -7%.
Compared to Q4 2009, the value of the chilled sector is up +2%, with both chilled and frozen up by 2% and 3% respectively.

23. Summary 2010
In the 52 weeks to 25th Dec 2010 the GB seafood retail market slowed. Worth £2.839 billion, up 0.6% on last year, with volume sales falling -1.0% to 377,468 tonnes.
This modest value growth was driven by the chilled sector (3.2%) by positive growth in the top 3 chilled species: salmon (2%), Warm Water Prawns (9.4%), and Cod (5%).
Both the value and volume of ambient fell sharply (-4.6% and -4.3% respectively), as a result of a corresponding fall in the volume and value of tuna and salmon. Wholesale skipjack prices rose by nearly 100% at the beginning of 2010 (Infofish Trade News) . With the recent reduction in catch quota, rising demand from new markets (Asia) and uncertainty over oil and tinplate prices, further price increases are predicted for 2011 (Globefish)

24. Summary…….
Both the value and volume of frozen fell (-1.1 and -0.9% respectively), driven by corresponding falls in frozen natural, frozen fingers and frozen sauce.
Chilled fingers continue their rapid value growth up +94%, from 77% in Q3 albeit still from a small base.
The popularity of chilled meals continues, with value up 13%. Whilst frozen meals have experienced a corresponding fall.
Shellfish meals increased by +23%.
The chilled shellfish category continues to perform well, whilst frozen shellfish and ambient shellfish are steady or in decline.

25. What Does 2011 hold?
Changing global dynamics as ‘new’ markets (Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Middle East & West Africa, displacing EU, USA and Japan, creating new opportunities
Salmon: Chilean ISA crisis settles, brisk demand and limited supply will keep prices high
Groundfish: Sustainability, pushed to counter falling prices resulting from pressure from Tilapia and Pangasius
Tuna: Reduced quota and increased canning costs to drive prices
Prawns: High demands and low harvests continue to drive costs

26. Global Market 2010
Globefish Highlights and European Price reports are available from:
And will be available free from the Seafood Information Network in Summer 2011

27. Definitions
All data is sourced to Nielsen Scan Track EPOS (till roll data).
MAT = moving annual total – 52 weeks
Segment definitions
Sushi – include all sushi, where fish & seafood are contained within.
Fingers – include all fish & seafood which are described as fingers.
Cakes – include all fish & seafood which are described as cakes.
Sauce – include all fish & seafood which is described as being in a sauce.
Batter –include all fish & seafood which is described as being coated in batter or battered.
Breaded – include all fish & seafood which is described as being coated in breadcrumbs or breaded.
Prepared – include all fish & seafood which has been treated/prepared in some way and is not included within the above values. Eg all fish & seafood sticks including sticks with a dipping sauce.
Natural – include all fish & seafood which has not been treated in any way.
The Cake or Finger value is a more important value, than Batter or Breaded.
All segments can be further broken down into smoked/unsmoked and organic/standard

28. Seafish Market Information Index
Nielsen Reports on the Seafood Information Network ( 10 new reports pcm):
Main SIN Marketing Department Services page
Nielsen Grocery Reports: Nielsen Retail Performance &  Nielsen Essential Retail reports
Nielsen Retail Market Tracking Data:  Ambient, context, prawn, cod, chilled, smoked, scampi & langoustine  & salmon reports
Food Service Reports to Dec 10 
Reports On Seafish.org ( 7 new reports pcm): 
Main Market Planning publications page   
Total seafood imports/exports by country   (Seafish web resources are currently being rationalised. Latest Import Information is now on the Seafood Information Network here)
Imports/exports by species and country  
Imports/exports by species and presentation 
Cod haddock and prawn imports by top chilled and frozen codes  (a new report that breaks out the top chilled and frozen codes (by value) for cod, haddock and prawns by country of origin)
Key Reports & Information: 
Retail market overview 2010 
Protein comparisons March 2010.
2009 Seafood Supply Chain
Trade Summary 2009
Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics:
Worldwide seafood production data - see FAO website: