1. Basic Need: Planning for Secondary Places Shirley Parks Head of Pupil Place Planning

2. Headlines  300,000 more secondary pupils are forecast between 2012/13 and 2019/20 (SCAP 2013)  LAs have a high degree of certainty in forecasts as pupils are in the system, but there are still unknown factors eg migration  London and the South-east are likely to see the highest increases in demand but other areas will also feel pressures  Some LAs are already feeling pressure in some areas places, but many LAs are at the lowest point in secondary numbers.  82% of secondary schools had unfilled places; 13% of 469,441 secondary places were unfilled in 2013 compared to 9% in 2009

3. Secondary forecasts The secondary population is forecast to increase by around 300,000 pupils from 2013/14 to 2019/20.

4. SCAP 2013: Primary and Secondary Forecasts 2012/13 to 2017/18 All regions are forecasting an increase in primary pupils over the period with Outer London forecasting the biggest change at 23% followed by Inner London at 17%. All regions except the North East are forecasting an increase in secondary pupils, with the biggest change forecast in Inner London at 16% followed by Outer London at 12%.

5. Change in secondary pupils over time The number of LAs with annual declines drops off quickly by 2017/18 and the number of LAs with annual rises 2.5% +increases significantly.

6. Funding allocations  £5bn of basic need funding allocated during this Parliament (FY 2011-15),  £2.35bn for 2015-17 was announced December 2013  These allocations included: - weighting to cover the higher costs of secondary places and geographical variability of building costs -A 3% London uplift -a 2% surplus - Recognised places provided through previous allocations, free schools or targeted basic need places. We are currently working on the next set of allocations.

7. Some of the things LAs have told us…  Site constraints are a concern (for secondary expansions and new schools)  Costs are increasing  Solutions are complex at secondary – the challenge of keeping teaching blocks together/specialist accommodation requirements  Size of school (may be) slightly less of a barrier than at primary  School autonomy creates a challenge  Local community challenges may be an issue where schools expand given the scale  Spare places might not be in the schools that parents want their children to attend.

8. Secondary Places – over to you  What is driving your strategy for providing additional secondary place?  What kind of solutions are you considering?  What do you see as the biggest issues/risks DfE should be aware of?