1. Alysha Reinard University of Colorado and SWPC/NOAA Rudi Komm, Frank Hill National Solar Observatory

2.  16 depths, 15x15 degrees, 189 regions  Horizontal velocities (v x, v y )  Assume incompressible  v z  Vorticity ( ω = x v)  Kinetic helicity density (h= ω  v)

4. Drop in kinetic helicity precedes X10 flare (Komm et al., 2004) Time (day)

5. (Reinard et al., 2010) NHGV increase 2-3 days in advance, higher for larger flares NHGV=Σ∆h(t,z)*Σh(t)

6. (Reinard et al., 2010)

9. Magnetic field Pink = confined Purple = eruptive

10.  X and M class flares with associated CMEs  27 (N), 32 (S)  X and M class flares with no associated CMEs  56 (N), 71 (S)  Active regions with no associated X/M flares  309 (N), 506 (S)  We normalize KHD by dividing by the average value of all quiet regions in that (E-W) location

11. Red=N Blue=S Solid=eruptive Dashed=confined Dotted=no flare 2 days before flare

12. Red=N Blue=S Solid=eruptive Dashed=confined Dotted=no flare 1 day before flare

13. Red=N Blue=S Solid=eruptive Dashed=confined Dotted=no flare Day of flare

14. Red=N Blue=S Solid=eruptive Dashed=confined Dotted=no flare 1 day after flare

15. M1.4

16. M3.2

17. M1.0

18. M1.7

19. X1.2

20. X17.2 M2.7

21. X10.0

22. M1.5

23. C5.3

24. M3.2

25. X8.3

26. M3.9

27. X45

28. B5.8

29. See Poster

30.  Subsurface precursor of flares  Indication of flaring and intensity 2-3 days in advance  Further investigation  No clear difference between confined and eruptive flares  KHD has opposite sign in N and S hemisphere  Could incorporate that into NHGV parameter?  New method for visualizing NHGV