1. The impact of projected climate change on Monaro farms. Doug Alcock Livestock Officer (Sheep and Wool) Climate Change Adaptation in Southern Australian Livestock Industries Project

3. Southern Livestock Adaptation 2030 National Project Uses modelling of –Climate –Pasture / Livestock Systems Compares current systems (1971 – 2000) with the same system in a projected climate (2030) Looking for adaptations to reduce impacts

4. What is a Global Climate Model? Global climate models (GCMs) combine knowledge of Physics, Fluid Dynamics and Chemistry to describe how –atmosphere, –oceans, –Land –Volcanic activity –living things –ice –Solar energy affect each other and Earth's climate.

5. What is a Global Climate Model? Equations are iterated on a 10 minute interval

6. Projections from 2000 Source IPCC IV How is has Temperature tracked since 2000?

8. Related trends?

9. Turning Global Scale Modelling into local projected weather! GCM,s operate as a broad brush. –Around 200km resolution Each cell gives a regional scale projection

10. Converting Climate to Weather Global Circulation Models Stochastic Weather Generator

11. Which emissions scenario? …Which GCM’s? CCSM 3.0 ECHAM5 OM GFDL 2.1 HadGEM1 Best GCM’s 2030

12. How can we assess the likely impact? Just as with projecting climate change modelling is the only way. One appropriate model is GrassGro

13. Weather / Climate Pasture Soil Livestock

14. How will plants respond to increased CO 2 Leaf Photosynthesis Leaf Water Loss Increased photosynthesis in C3 grasses and legumes (growth) Reduced water use Lower crude protein in grasses (higher CO 2 availability dilutes Nitrogen)

15. Climate Change at Bungarby

16. Base Farm System Merino Ewes 2.5 ewes/ha Nov Shorn Unfertilised native pasture on Stony Basalt. –Poa, Stipa, legume, annual grass. Sell progeny at 14 months Feed to maintain CS 2.

17. Bungarby’s weather data past and 2030 Annual RainfallAnnual Max / Min temperature 1971 to 2000544 mm18.3 C / 4.8 C 2000 to 2009451 mm19.1 C / 4.8 C CCSM (USA)605 mm (+11%)19.5 C / 5.9 C HadGEM1 (UK)561 mm (+3%)19.1 C / 5.7 C ECHAM5-OM (German)439 mm (-19%)19.7 C / 5.7 C GFDL 2.1 (USA)488 mm (-10%)19.5 C / 5.9 C

18. Bungarby projected 2030 rainfall compared to 1971-2000 CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1971-2000

19. CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 Monthly Ave. Temp compared to “1971 -2000” Temperature °C

20. Bungarby projected pasture growth rate CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1971-2000

21. SUSTAINABILITY - EROSION Source: FERTILISER: A key to Profitable Livestock Production & Sustainable Pastures SOILLOSS software - DLWC

22. CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000 Annual Minimum Ground Cover @ 2.5 ewes/ha Median Bottom 25% of years Top 25% of years Middle 50% of years

23. Baseline @ 2.5 ewes/ha 13.8% of the time below 80% GC 70% of years Min GC > 80% Echam @ 2.5 ewes/ha 30% of years Min GC > 80% 46.7% of the time below 80% GC Echam @ 0.7 ewes/ha 63% of years Min GC > 80% 13.8% of the time below 80% GC

24. Merino breeding past and future Median Annual pasture kgDM/ha Sustainable Stocking Rate Average Profit/ha 1970 to 200058332.5 ewes/ha$72 2000 to 200947172.5 ewes/ha (1.5 ewes/ha) $52 ($8) CCSM 3.066972.6 ewes/ha$89 HadGEM167202 ewes/ha$46 ECHAM5-OM42580.7 ewes/ha-$31 GFDL57121.6 ewes/ha$20

25. Projected profit for merino breeding at Bungarby CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1.5/ha 2.5/ha

26. Annual Supplement (per ewe) CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000

27. Annual supplement fed (per ha.) CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000

28. Wool Cut CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000

29. Condition Score at lambing CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000

30. Reproduction CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000

31. Ground Cover CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000

32. Some other locations and enterprises Beef production near Nimmitabel –British Breed –Weaner Steer with heifers retained to yearling –Improved pasture (Fescue / Sub. Clover) –Fertilised deep duplex Granite soils Merino’s west of Bombala. –Self replacing merino flock –Cocksfoot/Sub with some cork-screw and annual grasses. –Fertilised deep loamy gradational soil (metasediment)

33. Projected Rainfall CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000

34. Projected Pasture Growth at Nimmitabel CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1971-2000

35. Profit CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000 0.6 cows/ha 0.8 cows/ha 0.6 cows/ha 0.5 cows/ha 0.7 cows/ha

36. Some other locations and enterprises Merino’s west of Bombala. –Self replacing merino flock –Cocksfoot/Sub with some cork-screw and annual grasses. –Fertilised deep loamy soil

37. Projected rainfall near Bombala CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000

38. Bombala projected pasture Growth CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1 ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1971-2000

39. Projected profit for merino ewes at Bombala CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000 4 ewes/ha 4.3 ewes/ha 3.1 ewes/ha 1.8 ewes/ha 2.1 ewes/ha

40. Possible impacts without adaptation Lower ground cover Lower sustainable carrying capacity Lower profits/ha. –BUT Not necessarily the case for all locations and all climate projections?

41. Possible Adaptations Drought lots (ground cover management) Genetic improvements Grazing management New species Enterprise changes Lambing / calving time

42. + 10% Fleece weight @ -0.5 µm CCSM 3.0 HadGEM1ECHAM5-OM GFDL 2.1 1970 - 2000 4 ewes/ha 4.3 ewes/ha 3.1 ewes/ha 1.8 ewes/ha 2.1 ewes/ha

43. Climate change is truly serious !

44. National Southern Livestock Adaptation 2030 Partners Local Cooperators