1. AIACC Asia Regional Workshop Session C2: Water Resources, Watersheds, Coasts (Bangkok, 26.3.03) Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in the Archipelagoes of the South Pacific Patrick D. Nunn The University of the South Pacific

2. Organisation of this Talk Overview of the South Pacific archipelagoes Water resources – vulnerability and adaptive capacity Watersheds - vulnerability and adaptive capacity Coasts - vulnerability and adaptive capacity Future work/prospects

3. Part 1: Overview of the South Pacific archipelagoes

4. Overview of South Pacific island vulnerability Comparatively large ratios of coast length to land area. Comparatively remote and difficult of access. Comparatively high dependence of people on locally available food sources.

5. Overview of South Pacific island adaptive capacity Large area of highly vulnerable coastal lowland. Comparative smallness of land areas limits within- island relocation. Most practical environmental decision- making is at community level. Lifestyle options limited.

6. Part 2: Water resources – vulnerability and adaptive capacity

7. Pollution Vulnerability – Increasing demands (agricultural, urban, waste, industrial, marine)

8. Pollution Adaptive capacity – More effective environmental legislation, improved public awareness

9. Shortage Vulnerability – –Natural droughts –Infrastructural maintenance

10. Shortage Adaptive capacity – –Improved public awareness –Improved forecasting –Improved management

11. Part 3: Watersheds – vulnerability and adaptive capacity

12. Natural landscape change Vulnerability – Natural processes, exacerbated by changes in climate and climate extremes

13. Natural landscape change Adaptive capacity – Many settlements can move fairly easily, hard engineering solutions often prohibitively costly.

14. Human-induced land degradation Vulnerability – inland populations increasing and likely to increase further as coastal populations are displaced. Many inland landscapes degraded from millennia of agricultural use and burning.

15. Human-induced land degradation Adaptive capacity – low in many island countries because island land areas are small. Crop strains more suited to upland than lowland areas, and more tolerant of warmer wetter conditions need to be developed.

16. Part 4: Coasts – vulnerability and adaptive capacity

17. Melanesia, 1860s? Shoreline protection

19. Coasts - vulnerability Low-lying Unconsolidated Permeable Subject to storms Locations of most settlements, most infrastructure, most revenue-generating enterprises (including tourism)

20. Consequence of 20 th - century sea-level rise: inundation and salinisation of coastal lowlands.

21. Bruun Rule Consequence of 20 th -century sea- level rise: shoreline erosion along sandy coastlines.

22. On-site adaptation where possible Out-migration where on- site adaptation impossible

23. Coastal vulnerability – the seawall mindset Most government and community-level decision makers believe in remedying short-term problems rather than addressing the likely long-term effects.

24. Coastal vulnerability – the seawall mindset Most long-term solutions are being driven by NGOs although governments commonly pay lip- service to such sustainable solutions.

25. Coasts – adaptive capacity Accommodation

26. Coasts – adaptive capacity Protection

27. Coasts – adaptive capacity Retreat inland

28. Coasts – adaptive capacity Retreat upslope

29. Part 5: Future work/prospects

30. Sea-Level Rise, AD 1800-2100

33. Probable sea-level rise over the next 100 years will see some parts of the Pacific disappear, many others significantly reduced in habitable area. The geography of the Indo-Pacific region will change. Sea-level rise

34. In atoll nations, the effects of future sea-level rise are certain to produce environmental refugees.

35. Coral-reef death Increased ocean- surface temperatures over the next 100 years will kill many of the world’s coral reefs.

36. Aims of AIACC Project (S)IS09 Improve models for vulnerability and adaptation assessment in the Pacific Islands region. Develop the capacity of Pacific Island nations to plan more effectively for future climate change. Develop and trial methods of assessment which are transferable to other island regions.