1. A.Horányi, Gabriella Csima, P. Szabó, G. Szépszó, Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS), Budapest, Hungary J. Bartholy, A. Hunyady, I. Pieczka, R. Pongrácz, Cs. Torma Eötvös Loránd University (ELU), Department of Meteorology, Budapest, Hungary APPLICATION OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL MINI-ENSEMBLE FOR THE CARPATHIAN BASIN EMS/ECAM ANNUAL MEETING, 2009 / Toulouse, 28 September – 2 October, 2009

2. CONTENTCONTENT Members of the regional climate modelling mini- ensemble (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM and REMO models) Members of the regional climate modelling mini- ensemble (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM and REMO models) Validation results (1961-1990) Validation results (1961-1990) Projections (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) Projections (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) Summary Summary

3. REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS IN HUNGARY RCMALADINPRECISRegCMREMO RESOLUTION 10 km 25 km 10 km 25 km LEVELS 31 hybrid 19 hybrid 18 sigma 20 hybrid METHOD Time slices Transient VALIDATION RUNS LBCs 1961-2000: ERA40 1961-1990: ARPEGE 1961-1990: ERA40 1961-1990: HadCM3 1961-2000: ERA40 1961-1990: ECHAM 1961-2000: ERA40 1951-2050: ECHAM SCENARIO RUNS 2021-2050 A1B 2071-2100 A1B 2071-2100 A2 2071-2100 B2 2021-2050 A1B 2071-2100 A1B 1951-2050 A1B

4. THE INTEGRATION DOMAINS Hungary REMO ALADIN PRECIS RegCM Evaluation area for maps

5. VALIDATION RESULTS PERIOD: 1961-1990, LBC: ERA40, VALIDATION DATASET: CRU10’

6. ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (°C) - 1961-1990  ALADIN is too cold, while REMO is too warm!  PRECIS and RegCM have less bias, but rather cold over the mountains (not shown)

7. ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (%) - 1961-1990  All the models are rather humid (especially ALADIN and RegCM)  For PRECIS and especially for REMO also some dry areas can be identified

9. PROJECTIONS PERIODS: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100

10. MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE VALUES (°C) The standard deviation between the models is larger in summer (than in other seasons) indicating larger uncertainties 2071–2100, 3 models; 4 experiments; A1B, A2, B2 2021–2050; 3 models; A1B

11. MONTHLY MEAN PECIPITATION VALUES (mm/month) The ALADIN model has very different behaviour, than the others, the annual cycle is very „flat” for RegCM 2021–2050; 3 models; A1B 2071–2100, 3 models; 4 experiments; A1B, A2, B2

12. ALADIN REGCM PRECISREMO JANUARY JULY CHANGE OF RELATIVE FREQUENCY OF DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE (1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100) Remarkable shift of the summer temperature distribution for the PRECIS model

13. THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION The changes are rather small and mostly not significant (except the summer precipitation decrease) 2021-2050 2071-2100 mm/month

14. Ann.MAMJJASONDJF The probability of temperature increase 1  C 2021-2050 2  C4  C 2071-2100 6  C 1  C 2021-2050 2  C 4  C 2071-2100 6  C THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE DOESN’T EXCEED 2  C FOR 2021-2050 THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL BE MORE THAN 4  C FOR 2071-2100

15. Ann.MAMJJASONDJF The probability of precipitation decrease -10% 2021-2050 -5% -10% 2071-2100 -5% -10% 2021-2050 -5% -10% 2071-2100 -5% THE PRECIPITATION DECREASE WILL BE LESS THAN 10% FOR 2021-2050 THE PRECIPITATION DECREASE MIGHT BE SIGNIFICANT (50%) IN SUMMER FOR 2071-2100

16. Ann.MAMJJASONDJF The probability of precipitation increase 5% 2021-2050 10% 5% 2071-2100 10% 5% 2021-2050 10% 5% 2071-2100 10% THE PRECIPITATION INCREASE WILL BE 5-10% IN AUTUMN FOR 2021-2050 THE PRECIPITATION INCREASE WILL BE 5-10% IN AUTUMN AND WINTER FOR 2071-2100

17. SUMMARYSUMMARY Four regional climate models (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM and REMO) are adapted and used in HungaryFour regional climate models (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM and REMO) are adapted and used in Hungary The performance of the models (based on the validation runs) are somewhat differentThe performance of the models (based on the validation runs) are somewhat different First results of the ensemble evaluation indicate that for HungaryFirst results of the ensemble evaluation indicate that for Hungary 2021-2050 2021-2050 The temperature is projected to increase with 1-2  C The temperature is projected to increase with 1-2  C The annual precipitation is projected to slightly decrease (not significantly!) The annual precipitation is projected to slightly decrease (not significantly!) The summer precipitation decrease is very likely The summer precipitation decrease is very likely 2071-2100 2071-2100 The temperature is projected to increase with around 4  C The temperature is projected to increase with around 4  C Slight decrease of annual precipitation is likely Slight decrease of annual precipitation is likely The summer precipitation decrease is almost certain The summer precipitation decrease is almost certain Some limitationsSome limitations Only four models are applied (for the ensemble evaluation only three Only four models are applied (for the ensemble evaluation only three can be considered) can be considered) The used scenarios (A1B, A2, B2) are not the same! The used scenarios (A1B, A2, B2) are not the same!

18. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!