2. High-resolution Climate Scenarios for the 21st Century and Applications in Impacts Assessments on Water Resources in China Yinlong XU （许 吟隆） Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cnxuyl@ami.ac.cn 24 Feb. 2008

3. Content Background of climate change research Construction of high-resolution climate change scenarios with PRECIS Climate change responses under SRES A2 & B2 GHGs emissions scenarios Methodology to employ PRECIS outputs for impacts assessments Some results of impacts assessments on Chinese natural ecosystems and water resources Questions to discuss

4. The warming is the most obvious in the mid- & high-latitudes -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 The warming ratio in 1901 － 2000 年） ℃ /decade

5. The warming ratio in winter in 1976 － 2000 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 ℃ /decade

6. Warming Background 近 50 年温度变化 There have been totally 22 warming winter already in China Warming over China Annual mean temperature increase in past 50 years The warming projection in IPCC AR4 Data resources: Ding YH

7. An introduction to downscaling GCMs Horizontal resolution: ~110-600 km Impacts Models Downscaling Local details

8. Methods for downscaling Simple interpolation Statistical method Regional climate model (RCM) RCM + statistical

9. A demo for RCM downscaling HadAM3P PRECIS A demo for RCM downscaling

10. Downscaling with RCM GCM Lateral Boundary Initial Conditions RCM Other Forcings

11. What is PRECIS? PRECIS—Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies Purpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES climate scenarios over the world Purpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impacts assessments of climate change at the regional-level

12. The climate change scenarios in China are developed based on SRES socio- economic assumptions SRES: IPCC 2000, Special Report on Emission Scenarios

13. PRECIS Interface

14. Job status of PRECIS 1979-2003 NCEP re-analysis data: 1979-2003 1957-2001 ECMWF re-analysis data: 1957-2001 1979-1993 ECMWF re-analysis data: 1979-1993 HadCM3 （ UK Met Office Hadley Centre ） HadCM3 （ UK Met Office Hadley Centre ） No1 No2 No3 Baseline (1961-1990): No1 No2 No3 No1 No2 No3 A2 (2071-2100): No1 No2 No3 No1 only B2 (2071-2100) : No1 only No1 only A1B (1961-2100): No1 only ECHAM4 （ Germany MPI ） ECHAM4 （ Germany MPI ） No1 only A2 (1961-2100): No1 only No1 only B2 (1961-2100) : No1 only

15. Domain of PRECIS

16. Terrain

17. Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario — Maximum/minimum temperature

18. Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario----precipitation

19. Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under A2 scenario in 2080s relative to baseline (1961- 1990) Temperature precipitation Annual Annual Winter Winter Summer Summer

20. Temperature (  C) and precipitation changes (%) in Southwest China and whole China （ 2071 ～ 2100 vs 1961 ～ 1990 ） Season Southwest ChinaWhole China A2B2A2B2 TPTPTPTP Spr3.8162.693.8212.913 Sum4.2133.184.9133.86 Aut4.0162.774.5233.33 Win4.2123.164.4113.59 Anl4.1152.984.5173.310

21. Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1 CriteriaDefinition SU daily maximum temperature is over 25 ℃ CFDthe largest number of consecutive days with daily minimum temperature below 0 ℃ GSL number of days between the first occurrence of at least 6 consecutive days with daily mean temperature above 5 ℃ and the first occurrence after 1st July of at least 6 consecutive days with daily mean temperature below 5 ℃ R20mm extreme precipitation events with daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 20 mm

22. Extreme Climate Events Criteria-2 CriteriaDefinition RX5daymaximum precipitation amount for the 5-day interval SDII ratio of the daily precipitation amount for wet days (daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 1 mm) to the number of wet day CDD Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the largest number consecutive days with daily precipitation below 1mm TX95 put daily maximum temperature of one year in a increase order, then TX95 is defined as the 95 percentage of the maximum temperature of this year

23. a.SU b. CFD c. GSL d. R20mm e. RX5day f. SDII (Unit: %) Changes of Extreme Climate Events 2071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES A2

24. a.SU b. CFD c. GSL d. R20mm e. RX5day f. SDII (Unit: %) Changes of Extreme Climate Events 2071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES B2

25. Impacts Assessments of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture HadCM2 ECHAM4 Monthly T, P Weather Generator Daily Tmax/min, Pre, Srad Crop Varities Soil Data Management Data Crop Models Yield Changes; etc

26. Impacts Assessments of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture Weather Generator ==>RCM Daily Tmax/min, Pre, Srad Crop Varities Soil Data Management Data Crop models Yield Changes, etc

27. How to use future climate change scenarios for impacts assessment Observation Baseline Future scenarios

28. 2050s under B2 scenario Impacts of CC on natural systems 2080s under B2 scenario

29. Changes of runoff in China The drought would be enhanced along the Yellow River While the potential flooding risk along the Yangtze River would increase under SRES A2 scenario A2 与基准年 B2 与基准年 Similar to A2 scenario, but amplitude is not so large as A2 scenario

30. 人均径流量变化图人均径流量变化图 不考虑气候变化 A2 情景 B2 情景 A2 （ 2080S ）与基准年 全国径流深变化图 气候变化对水资 源的影响

31. Questions to discuss To generate higher-resolution climate scenarios More research fields to expand More analyses on CC I&V assessments Case study on adaptation options Addressing the uncertainties Developing Provincial Strategies to Cope with CC

32. China ’ s INC on CC & the 1 st Version of National Assessment Report on CC Impacts

33. Computer network to run PRECIS

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