1. Urbanisation, Water and Climate Change: A case of Jaipur city M.S. Rathore (CEDSJ) and ISET Team Shashikant Chopde, Sarah-Opitz Stapleton, Marcus Moench

2. Context…  India rapidly urbanising  Urban areas engine of economic development  Pressures: Push and pull migration from rural areas  Climate Change—exacerbate challenge of water supply and protecting ecosystems

3. Context  Challenge: Meeting water supply demand of increasing urban population Relation between Climate Change and water resource conditions Nature and size of migrant population Deliver water supply to poor/ vulnerable where there is lack of infrastructure

4. Jaipur City  High rural-urban migration rates  Rapidly expanding peri-urban areas: Land use changes reducing recharge  Limited water supply and water quality issues  Groundwater over-extraction, pollution and less recharge  The key surface water sources (Bisalpur Dam) filled only few times  High rainfall variability in Banas Basin; drought years common  So, CC impacts—delay in monsoon, high intense showers over short period, dry years poses additional challenge to key surface water supplies

7. Factors of Human Migration

8. Changing Status of groundwater in Rajasthan Category19841988200120042008 Over Exploited (>100%) 22 (9.3) 41 (17.0) 86 (36.0) 140 (59.3) 164 (69.5) Critical (90 to 100%) 6 (2.5) 26 (11.0) 80 (34.0) 50 (21.2) 34 (14.4) Semi critical (70 to 90%) 27 (11.5) 34 (14.0) 21 (9.0) 14 (5.9) 8 (3.4) Safe (70%) 181 (76.7) 135 (57.0) 49 (21.0) 32 (13.6) 30 (12.7)

9. Banas River Basin

10. Type of Scheme Number of Projects Free Catchment Area, Km 2 Live Storage Mm 3 Major76,133425 Medium3311,337816 Minor121916,4961,055 Total125933,9652,296 Total Free Catchment Area and Live Storage Capacity of Existing Irrigation Dams in Banas River Basin, Rajasthan

11. Districts ofIntensity and frequency of Drought Per cent of Total Year Normal years Very SevereSevereModerateLight Pali812191550.952 Jaipur1112171047.256 81614 49.154 Tonk911 1846.257 Swai Madhopur88152350.952 Bhilwara39101537.063 Chittorgarh1012 1344.359 1014 944.359 Bundi716151348.155 Average of Basin812141546.457 Overall Rajasthan 10 15 47.256 Frequency of occurrence of drought and its intensity since 1901-2006 in the Banas River Basin

13. Year wise Water Balance in Bisalpur Dam. (in TMC ) YearsTotal collection of water(TMC) Water Used (TMC) Total UseIrrigationDrinkingEvaporation Losses 1994-950.100 -0.0020.098 1995-960.790 -0.5000.290 1996-971.6301.140-0.6400.500 1997-981.8501.490-1.2000.290 1998-991.410 -1.2600.150 1999-20003.6302.5700.4201.3000.850 2000-20018.1204.9600.3001.6503.010 2001-200214.0008.8001.2503.5903.960 2002-20035.8004.270-1.8602.410 2003-20047.7705.290-2.7152.575 2004-200538.70017.0905.9801.8109.300 2005-200628.39017.6907.3802.6207.690 2006-200738.70021.7509.8522.5709.326 2007-200822.25214.7688.2181.6304.920

14. The Project  CEDSJ and ISET: Urbanisation, Water Scarcity and Climate Change: A case of Jaipur city  Links between Climate Variability, Groundwater Overdraft and migration inflows  Methodology  Review of literature and policies  Details surveys of migration  Climate Downscaling for Banas River Basin: projected monthly time series of precipitation (2009-2040)  Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model: Current and future water availability and demand scenarios

15. Climate Downscaling  Two GCMs (CGCM3 and ECHAM5)  Two emission scenarios (A1B and A2)  Hence four climate change scenarios are considered namely CGCM3 A1B, CGCM3 A2, ECHAM5 A1B, and ECHAM5 A2

16. Common SRES emission scenarios (Source: Environment Canada 2011).

19. WEAP setup for Jaipur water supply system

20. Variance in Bisalpur storage (MCM)

21. Huge unmet demand even without Climate Change Jaipur Combined: Domestic, Industrial uses

22. Key Findings..  Sequential drought years  Failure of current water supply system for urban demand  Ability to respond dependant on availability of key data sets  Official estimates of river flows differ greatly between two data sets  Challenge to assess future water availability given uncertainty in CC projections

23. Key Findings..  Reliable future streamflow record generation a challenge given the data available  Hence, factors contributing to vulnerability of Jaipur were assessed. High dependence on single water supply source High Losses in distribution systems Extensive pollution and degradation of ecosystems and groundwater

24. Options for resilient water supply system for Jaipur  Water supply diversification  Improved efficiency of water supply delivery  Improved maintenance of ecosystems and local watersheds  Recharge of aquifers in peri-urban areas and Groundwater management  Policy: Strict enforcement of Landuse and revision of Masterplan

25. Thank You ! msr@cedsj.org schopde@i-s-e-t.org msr@cedsj.org schopde@i-s-e-t.org