1. A novel approach to deal with spatial autocorrelation of species data: the maximum independent set* *Under the project S-PerforMA: A Species Performance Modelling Algorithm (PTDC/AAC-AMB/113394/2009) 1 School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, UK 2 Instituto Superior de Agronomia, University of Lisbon, Portugal Correia, R. A. 1, Cerdeira, J. O. 2, Franco, A. M. 1

2. Introduction Welcome to the Mediterranean!

3. Mediterranean Basin Complex bio-geographic history Long history of human intervention, characterised by low-intensity pressure Traditional landscape designs (e.g. sylva-saltus- ager, dehesa-montado, etc.)

4. Mediterranean Basin Complex bio-geographic history Long history of human intervention, characterised by low-intensity pressure Traditional landscape designs (e.g. sylva-saltus- ager, dehesa-montado, etc.

5. Montado Cork oak (Quercus suber) and Holm oak (Q. rotundifolia) Montados are a key example of trditional systems: Very high diversity levels High Nature Value Farmlands Key EU habitat included in the Habitats Directive

6. Montado Financially sustainable (e.g. Cork generates 900M€/year just in Portugal) Other income sources are also important (cereal, grazing, wood) Financial sustainability compatible with high biodiversity levels

7. Climate change Climate change is a major concern for this system: Evidence for drought-induced increasing defoliation leading to tree death (Carnicer et al. 2011) Mediterranean Basin is a climate change hot-spot (Giorgi 2006)

8. Climate change Need to understand and predict climate change impacts Environmental niche based approaches are ideal tools for this purpose However, key assumption of ENMs is… Species have to be in equilibrium with the environment

9. Climate change In Europe, large areas of the landscape are managed nowadays (traditional systems have been so for centuries!)

10. Climate change Environmental gradient

11. Climate change In Europe, large areas of the landscape are managed nowadays (traditional systems have been so for centuries!) Niche-based approaches need to consider and account for issues of prevalence and spatial autocorrelation!

12. Aims Using the Montado system: 1)Test the Maximum Independent set approach to account for biases in distribution data 2)Compare the environmental niche for Cork and Holm oak calculated using a full dataset and the Max Ind set 3)Predict potential changes in the suitable areas for the two species under a climate change scenario

13. Methods Environmental variables: Isothermality Mean temperature of the coldest quarter Total precipitation of the wettest quarter Future predictions: HadCM3 climate model A2 emission scenario

14. Distribution Holm oak:

15. Maximum independent set Holm oak:

16. Niche modelling - Present

17. Niche modelling - Future

19. Cork oak: Distribution

20. Maximum independent set Cork oak:

21. Niche modelling - Present

22. Niche modelling - Future

24. Niche modelling - Overlap

25. Conclusions The Maximum Independent seems more likely to produce unbiased results Tukey’s depth as a useful novel method for describing environmental niches Compare with more commonly used methods

26. Over 50% of current Cork oak range and over 25% of current Holm oak range may become unsuitable New suitable areas can potentially compensate losses in current range area (even increase it) Evaluate the importance of factors other than climate on environmental suitability Conclusions

27. Acknowledgements Dr. Aldina Franco Dr. Jorge Cerdeira S-PerforMA project team FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

28. Thank you!