1. Summary of predicted climate effects on species Source: Foden, Mace et al. 2009 IUCN

2. CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS BASED ON IPCC EMISSION SCENARIOS Increases in surface air temperature, IPCC (2007) WGI: The Physical Basis of Climate Change A2 Medium/high emissions scenario “Business as usual” B1 Low emissions scenario A1B Medium emissions scenario

3. Vulnerability framework Levels of vulnerability used to grade species

4. 28 SPECIES STUDIED IDENTIFIED AS HAVING A HIGH VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE: Hawksbill Turtle, Green Turtle, Balearic Shearwater, Kemp's Ridley Turtle, Narwhal, North Pacific Right Whale, Northern Atlantic Right Whale, Relict Gull, Gharial, Loggerhead Turtle, Short-tailed Albatross, West African Manatee, Bowhead Whale, Dama Gazelle, Leatherback Turtle, Sociable Plover, Southern Right Whale, Olive Ridley, Addax, Red-breasted Goose, White-naped Crane, Steller's Eider, Siberian Crane, Blue Whale, Giant Catfish, Basra Reed-warbler, Common Sturgeon, Bermuda Petrel and Snow Leopard.

6. RIS light-trap network Trap operating currently Trap no longer operated > 400 have run at least 1 full year 80 – 100 run annually 56 sites sampled ≥15 years 30 sites sampled ≥25 years Continuous, national record of >400 macro-moth species One of the world’s longest records of contemporary insect biodiversity

7. Decline in total trap catches Total Catch / Site Year 196519701975198019851990199520002005 Abundance Index -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 32 % decrease in 35 years

11. Two fundamental concerns… Are we sufficiently aware of the global warming threat? Are we sufficiently responding to that threat?

12. What is a safe temperature/CO 2 level? Current focus is all on 2 o C (~450ppm CO 2 )