1. Trident Replacement: the practical implications
Presentation to British Pugwash AGM
8 April 2008
John Ainslie Coordinator, Scottish CND

2. Trident Replacement
Submarine
Missile
Targeting
Warhead

3. “Successor” Submarine

4. New submarine Timeline
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Concept Design
Initial Design
Detail Design
Outputs
Initial Gate
Build
Main Gate

5. Nuclear-Powered Submarines10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
Successor
MUFC
Astute

6. Reactor for “Successor”
Rolls
Royce
Royal Navy
PWR2 P P
New Design

7. New Generation Nuclear Propulsion Plant (NGNPP)
“avoid pumped flow systems”
Steve Ludham RR
“a modern & much simpler plant”
Rear Admiral Matthews

8. USS Narwhal (1969 – 1999) When built - quietest submarine

9. Continuous Patrols One armed submarine on patrol at all times
Alert – “measured in days” non-verifiable
“our planned future programme should take us up to 750 [patrols]” Rear Admiral Matthews
Patrols
300 ?
450
Total
750

10. Infrastructure - Devonport
Refit Dockyard

11. Infrastructure - Derby
Fuel Rod Fabrication

12. Infrastructure - Faslane
Submarine Base and Shiplift

13. Infrastructure - Coulport
Explosives Handling Jetty

14. Infrastructure - Dounreay
Submarine Reactor Prototype & overhaul of coolant pumps

15. The Scottish Question 71 for 16 against 39 abstained 2 did not vote
“the Parliament … calls on the UK Government not to go ahead at this time with the proposal in the White Paper, The Future of the United Kingdom’s Nuclear Deterrent” June 2007
71 for 16 against
39 abstained
2 did not vote

16. If not Scotland where ?
1963 Polaris option - Falmouth

17. Trident Replacement
Submarine
Missile
Targeting
Warhead

18. Missile System

19. Underwater Launched Missile System (ULMS)
New US missile to replace Trident D5
In service by 2029
Initial concept studies started in 2007
Considered by Strategic Advisory Group November 2007

20. Missile options British “successor” submarine in-service 2024 – 206026 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 48 50 52 54 56 58 60
British “successor” submarine in-service 2024 – 2060
Trident D5 in service with US Navy until 2042
ULMS & SSBN(X) in service with US Navy from 2029

21. Underwater Launched Missile System
“any successor to the D5 system should be compatible with, or be capable or being made compatible with, the launch system for the D5 missile” Bush to Blair Dec 2006
“concepts for future submarines may have missile tubes larger than 87 inches in diameter” ULMS Test Bed Request for Information 7 Nov 2007

22. Future RV system ? Manoeuvrable Reentry Vehicle (MaRV)
Developed for nuclear Trident (E2 RV)
Revived for Conventional Trident
Option for ULMS ?

23. Operational independence ?
“without United States cooperation … Polaris would become ineffective after only a few months” Sir Charles Ellworthy, CDS, March 1971

24. Trident Replacement
Submarine
Missile
Targeting
Warhead

25. Nuclear Warhead

26. The special nuclear relationship
1958 Mutual Defence Agreement
Solly Zuckerman – no interest beyond Polaris
Polaris upgrade – to revive relationship
Peter Jones – “whether the UK had done it themselves”

27. The first UK thermonuclear bomb
Red Snow warhead
Not based on Grapple design
Anglicised version of US Mk 28 warhead

28. The Polaris family
Polaris
Chevaline
WE 177

29. Primary Secondary US or UK UK design US design Origin Cleo test W 58
Polaris
Jennie
Reggie
WE 177B
Katie
Simon
WE 177A
Katie A
Chevaline
Harriet
WE 177C
source:

30. Origin of the UK Trident design
UK design
Anglicised US design
“The warhead was designed in the UK” Bob Ainsworth Mar 08
“The warheads were anglicised by the AWE” National Archives
1978 – tests of UK lightweight warhead; 50 kiloton yield
opened door to details of US designs; 6 further tests
Primary uses British High Explosive
Secondary probably derived from US design (as with Polaris family)

31. US components in UK Trident warhead
… it was decided on cost-effectiveness grounds to procure certain non-nuclear warhead components from the United States. (Bob Ainsworth)
Arming, Fusing & Firing System
Neutron Generator
Gas Transfer System ?

32. Future of the US nuclear stockplie
Life Extension
Reliable Replacement Warhead

33. US Life Extension Programmes (LEP)
B61-7/11
LEP underway
W80
LEP cancelled
W76
Major LEP

34. US Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW)
More reliable ?
Safer
More secure
Increased weight and size

35. US Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW)
Livermore design chosen
No funding FY 2008
Advanced Certification
Funding request FY 2009

36. US Nuclear Weapon Reviews
Report date
Congress Commission
2008
Policy Review
2009
Posture Review
2010

37. Options for British warheads
Life Extension or
High Surety Warhead
Life Extension underway since 2000
Britain will probably follow US lead

38. New UK High Surety Warhead
Features – IHE, FRP, No Be
Design Options
Design
Previous tests
Modified UK Trident
None
Modified UK TD-127 ??
Anglicised US WR1
US W89

39. Warhead components

40. Reentry Vehicle (RV) case
Life Extension
Mk 4 RV Replace some fittings
New Warhead
Larger Mk 5 RV New production

41. Plutonium pit Life Extension No replacement Lifespan 60 years plus
New Warhead
New Pit Fire Resistant

42. Pit Tube
Life Extension
Replace pit tube

43. Tamper Life Extension Beryllium No replacement New Warhead
Substitute for Beryllium

44. High Explosives Life Extension
US – replace after 30 yrs UK - EDC 37 High Explosive - replace after 16 ? years
New Warhead
Insensitive High Explosives Safer, Larger & Heavier

45. Detonation System Life Extension Replace detonators New Warhead
Optical initiated firing system

46. Secondary HEU Life Extension No replacement Lifespan 60 years plus
New Warhead
New HEU secondary

47. Interstage Life Extension Remanufacture Fogbank New Warhead
Substitute for Fogbank Substitute for Beryllium

48. Radiation Case Life Extension No replacement New Warhead
New simpler design

49. Arming, Fuzing & Firing System

50. Arming, Fuzing & Firing System
AWE vacancy Warhead Electrical Engineer
Support the approval programme for the introduction of the system into UK Trident AWE website
Support the approval programme for the introduction of the Mk4A AF&F system into UK Trident Beechgrove Recruiting

51. Arming, Fuzing & Firing System
MK4A AF&F
key part of US W76-1 warhead upgrade / LEP
advanced fuzing options
increased targeting flexibility and effectiveness
increase the warfighting effectiveness of the D5 system
introduced in UK Trident system by 2017

52. Arming, Fuzing & Firing System
Life Extension
upgrade to Mk4A
New Warhead
New design

53. Neutron Generator Life Extension MC4380 introduced 2003 New Warhead
New design

54. Gas Transfer System Life Extension Acorn (UK 2005) Acorn II (LEP)
New Warhead
New design

55. Reliable Replacement Warhead
Warhead Timeline 08 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56
W76-0
W76-1
and
Reliable Replacement Warhead
Initial lifespan
New AF&F
Refurbished Warhead or
High Surety Warhead

56. Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston
Orion Laser

57. Hydrus Hydrodynamic Facility
Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston
Hydrus Hydrodynamic Facility

58. High Explosives Fabrication Facility
Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston
High Explosives Fabrication Facility

59. Uranium Production Facility
Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston
Uranium Production Facility

60. Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston
Refurbish A90

61. Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston
Refurbish A45

62. Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston
New Supercomputers

63. Modernisation of AWE Burghfield
New Warhead Assembly & Dissassembly Facility
Current Gravel Gerties

64. AWE budget 2005 - 2011 £ million Development Running costs 05/06 06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11

65. Tritium supply Tritium decays with half-life of 12 years
2006
2054
Tritium decays with half-life of 12 years
No current source of UK tritium
New facility ? – linked to civil nuclear

66. Lower yield warhead
the continued availability of a lower yield from our warhead
Future of UK Nuclear Deterrent December 2006
UK Trident warhead – yield fixed at time of manufacture.
Future US & UK submarine warheads – possible variable yield.

67. Trident Replacement
Submarine
Missile
Targeting
Warhead

68. Targeting system

69. Transfer of US targeting data
UKLO
STRATCOM Omaha
SACEUR
Mons Belgium
NOTC
MoD London
SWS IPT
Bath / Corsham
OPLAN 8044 information
STRATCOM Omaha
sanitised

70. Corsham

71. Corsham

72. Cold War bunker for PM and Queen
Corsham
Site 3
Cold War bunker for PM and Queen

73. UK Defence Communications Hub
Corsham
DCSA HQ
UK Defence Communications Hub

74. Corsham
Corsham
Computer
Centre
Trident targeting

75. Targeting system Magnetic Tape Cartridge Target Planning (Corsham)
Fire Control (Submarine)
Target Change Message

76. Targeting system upgrades
SLBM Retargeting System (SRS)
operational in 2003
quickly, accurately & reliably retarget missiles to targets
timely & reliable processing of an increased number of targets
support adaptive planning
US and UK systems

77. Targeting system upgrades
SLBM Planning & Operational Flexibility (SPOF)
follow on to SRS
funded
improve flexibility & responsiveness
enhance accuracy and effectiveness
application in UK ?

78. Fire Control hardware upgradesUS UK
In service
Mod 4
Mod 5
2003
Mod 6
Mod 7
2010

79. Targeting software for UK Trident
// Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx);
//Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld)
//Assess Probability of Kill Suitability for (int k=0; k<fz_opts; k++) [ F0=beta0]*Obj_Pk(targ_indx, cep[k], yld);
F3=beta3}*Obj_HOB(targ_indx,sys_indx,k);
F4=sys[sys_indx].relia[k]; Fsum=F1*F4*(F0+F2+F3);
If(Fsum<min_pk)
MIN_PK=Fsum;
If(Fsum>max_pk) {
max_pk=Fsum; indx=k; {
If ((max_pk-mi_pk)< )
Indx=indx_cep;
; opt_index[targ_indx][sys_indx;
return(max_pk
Software for US target planning & fire control

80. Targeting software for UK Trident
// Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx);
//Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld)
//Assess Probability of Kill Suitability for (int k=0; k<fz_opts; k++) [ F0=beta0]*Obj_Pk(targ_indx, cep[k], yld);
F3=beta3}*Obj_HOB(targ_indx,sys_indx,k);
F4=sys[sys_indx].relia[k]; Fsum=F1*F4*(F0+F2+F3);
If(Fsum<min_pk)
MIN_PK=Fsum;
If(Fsum>max_pk) {
max_pk=Fsum; indx=k; {
If ((max_pk-mi_pk)< )
Indx=indx_cep;
; opt_index[targ_indx][sys_indx;
return(max_pk
US Eyes Only items removed from code, tables and manuals

81. Targeting software for UK Trident
// Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx);
//Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld)
//Assess Probability of Kill Suitability for (int k=0; k<fz_opts; k++) [ F0=beta0]*Obj_Pk(targ_indx, cep[k], yld);
F3=beta3}*Obj_HOB(targ_indx,sys_indx,k);
F4=sys[sys_indx].relia[k]; Fsum=F1*F4*(F0+F2+F3);
If(Fsum<min_pk)
MIN_PK=Fsum;
If(Fsum>max_pk) {
max_pk=Fsum; indx=k; {
If ((max_pk-mi_pk)< )
Indx=indx_cep;
; opt_index[targ_indx][sys_indx;
return(max_pk
Sanitised software supplied to Corsham

82. Targeting software for UK Trident
// Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx);
//Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld)
//Assess Probability of Kill Suitability for (int k=0; k<fz_opts; k++) [ F0=beta0]*Obj_Pk(targ_indx, cep[k], yld);
F3=beta3}*Obj_HOB(targ_indx,sys_indx,k);
F4=sys[sys_indx].relia[k]; Fsum=F1*F4*(F0+F2+F3);
If(Fsum<min_pk)
MIN_PK=Fsum;
If(Fsum>max_pk) {
max_pk=Fsum; indx=k; {
If ((max_pk-mi_pk)< )
Indx=indx_cep;
; opt_index[targ_indx][sys_indx;
return(max_pk
US could cripple software to restrict use

83. Assigned to NATO ? NATO attack less likely independent attack
bilateral attack
most likely

84. Closing Points Dependence on US support Early stage of long-term plan
Need greater transparency
Endangered species