1. Agricultural Border Displacement as a Consequence of Climate Change. Case: Coffee in Colombia Ricardo Camacho Castilla, Daniel Páez Barajas. Departamento de Ingeniería Civil y Ambiental Universidad de los Andes Bogotá D.C., Colombia World Bank Conference on Land and Poverty Washington DC, March 2015

2. Overview of Presentation Background and Problem Statement Hypothesis Data Collection Methodology Results and Conclusions 2

3. Background For the last 14 years, Agriculture in Colombia has represented between 10-14% of Colombia`s GDP. The agriculture occupies nearly 4% of the national territory and 21% of its population. –60% of permanent croplands –37% of transition croplands –3% of rest fields 3

4. Background The coffee production corresponds to the greatest cropland area. It occupies about 23% of the cropland (around 650,000 Ha in 2010). 4

5. Background Coffee production is sensitive to diverse factors like temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, etc. according to FAO. –It is a perennial horticultural crop. Provides important health benefits Serve as income sources Carbon sequestration Erosion protection Biodiversity Water retention 5

6. Background Imminent climate change is to happen in the near future, according to the IPCC fourth assessment report. Climate change will affect Colombia`s average temperature and rainfall regimes as IDEAM and CIAT propose in their studies. 6

7. Problem Statement The imminent climate change can or cannot be counterproductive with the coffee`s yield in different regions of Colombia. Agricultural border displacement would emerge as a chance to protect the agriculture and the people working on it. However it might also have a negative impact in some regions. 7

8. Hypothesis The coffee as a relevant crop in Colombia`s agriculture, will not affect its yield negatively as a consequence of the agricultural border displacement which is a sequel of the climate change in the region. 8

9. Data Recollection Based on the growing characteristics of the Coffea Arabica, the most relevant and widespread variety of coffee in the region, described on the following table, the data was recollected. Parameter OptimalAbsolute MinMaxMinMax Temperature required [ºC] 14 28 10 34 Rainfall (annual) [mm] 1,400 2,300 750 4,200 Elevation [m.a.s.l.] 1,500 1,900 1,300 2,800 Soil pH 6 7 4 8 Soil Salinity [dS/m] < 4 9

10. Data Recollection 10

11. Data Recollection 11

12. Data Recollection 12

13. Data Recollection 13

14. Data Recollection 14

15. Methodology Based on the shown table extracted from FAO`s Ecocrop database for the Coffea Arabica crop, the five families of information obtained were analyzed and an optimal and an absolute map was drawn for each of them. 15

16. Methodology 16

17. Methodology 17

18. Methodology 18

19. Methodology 19

20. Methodology 20

21. Methodology 21

22. Methodology 22

23. Methodology 23

24. Methodology 24

25. Results 25

26. Results 26

27. Results 27

28. Results 28 200820402099 Area [km2] 194.567,02 202.189,35 217.321,08 Coffee agro-potential area for each of the studied years: Summarized resulting maps of agro-potential: 20082008 - 20402040 - 20992008 - 2099 Loss [km2]-1.411,548.356,336.944,79 Gain [km2]-9.033,8723.488,0729.698,85 Remain [km2]-193.155,48193.833,02187.622,23 Total [km2]194.567,02202.189,35217.321,08

29. Results 29

30. Conclusions Most of the main coffee growing zones in the present, like the Coffee Triangle, will remain practically intact against the imminent climate change. However, big changes are coming in Colombia’s coffee agriculture; new territories need to be viewed now for coffee expansion in the future. Through governmental policies agricultural border should be promoted and incentivized gradually, so the coffee producers and the coffee based industry can assimilate and move towards better yield areas. For this purpose the government should improve the rural recollection data systems so an overall analysis can be made with more precision and considering the interaction between the different crops. 30

31. Conclusions + A climate-specific agriculture must be developed in the country by the government and the research centers as an exit to the food security problem that will affect some regions but can be compensated by others. Specific crop land use should be suggested and incentivized as a measure to prevent a national food shortage, or coffee shortage in this case. Further research is proposed on enhancing the number and type of parameters not only to evaluate the coffee crop, but to evaluate other important crops in Colombia such as oil palms and sugar cane, among others, to analyze the social and economic impacts this may have in the country. 31

32. Thank you! Ricardo Camacho Castilla Civil and Environmental Engineer M.Sc. Student at Politecnico di Milano E-mail:r.camacho1599@uniandes.edu.co ricardo.camacho@mail.polimi.itr.camacho1599@uniandes.edu.co ricardo.camacho@mail.polimi.it 32