1. Fall 2012

2. Location – Erie, PA Population 101,807 (US: 275th) (2011) 275th - metro 280,985 (US: 164th) (2011) 164th Density 4,631.7 / sq mi (1,788 / km 2 )

3. Erie Obs  KERI 251751Z 19014KT 10SM BKN100 19/07 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP155 T01940067 10206 20111 58016=  KERI 251851Z 20013G21KT 10SM BKN075 OVC100 20/08 A2997=  KERI 251951Z 17014KT 10SM OVC047 18/08 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP142 T01830078=  KERI 252051Z 18011G18KT 10SM OVC055 18/07 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP140 T01780072 56016=  KERI 252151Z 17011G18KT 10SM OVC065 18/08 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP140 T01780078=  KERI 252251Z 17012KT 10SM OVC055 17/08 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP142 T01720083=  KERI 252351Z 19012KT 10SM BKN047 OVC055 17/09 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP143 T01720089 10206 20172 53003=

4. Erie - Obs KERI 252351Z 19012KT 10SM BKN047 OVC055 17/09 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP143 T01720089 10206 20172 53003= KERI 260051Z 20012G23KT 10SM SCT039 OVC050 16/11 A2996 RMK AO2 PK WND 19026/0038 SLP145 T01610106= KERI 260137Z 18014G19KT 10SM BKN026 OVC033 15/12 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB02E31 P0000= KERI 260151Z 18012KT 10SM OVC024 15/12 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB02E31 SLP147 P0000 T01500117= KERI 260251Z 19014G20KT 10SM OVC018 15/12 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP147 60000 T01500117 51004= KERI 260351Z AUTO 19011G21KT 10SM OVC021 15/12 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145 T01500122= KERI 260451Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM OVC017 15/12 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145 T01500122 402060111= KERI 260537Z AUTO 20009KT 6SM BR OVC013 14/13 A2997 RMK AO2= KERI 260551Z AUTO 20009KT 5SM BR OVC013 14/13 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP148 60000 T01440128 10178 20144 53002= KERI 260607Z AUTO 21007KT 6SM BR FEW010 OVC015 14/13 A2998 RMK AO2=

5. Erie - Obs KERI 260551Z AUTO 20009KT 5SM BR OVC013 14/13 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP148 60000 T01440128 10178 20144 53002= KERI 260607Z AUTO 21007KT 6SM BR FEW010 OVC015 14/13 A2998 RMK AO2= KERI 260651Z AUTO 19010KT 6SM BR OVC015 15/13 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01500133 $= KERI 260732Z AUTO 19007KT 9SM FEW009 BKN015 OVC027 15/13 A2995 RMK AO2 $= KERI 260751Z AUTO 18009KT 6SM BR OVC015 15/14 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP138 T01500139 $= KERI 260851Z AUTO 18008KT 6SM BR OVC026 16/14 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP141 T01560139 55007 $= KERI 260951Z AUTO 18007KT 7SM BKN017 OVC023 16/14 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T01560139 $= KERI 261033Z 19008KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC015 16/14 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB21 P0001 $= KERI 261038Z 19007KT 3SM -RA BR FEW009 OVC015 16/14 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB21 P0001 $= KERI 261033Z 19008KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC015 16/14 A2994= KERI 261048Z 18008KT 4SM -RA BR BKN013 OVC034 16/14 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB21 P0002 $= KERI 261051Z 18007KT 4SM -RA BR BKN013 BKN021 OVC034 16/14 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB21 SLP139 P0002 T01560139 $= KERI 261058Z 18007KT 5SM -RA BR FEW010 BKN021 OVC034 16/14 A2995 RMK AO2 CIG 015 NE P0000 $= KERI 261051Z 18007KT 4SM -RA BR BKN013 BKN021 OVC034 16/14 A2994= KERI 261058Z 18007KT 5SM -RA BR FEW010 BKN021 OVC034 16/14 A2995= KERI 261151Z 19008KT 3SM -RA BR OVC018 16/14 A2996 RMK AO2 RAE01B35 SLP144 P0001 60003 70003 T01560144 10156 20144 53007 $= KERI 261158Z 18006KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC016 16/14 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000 $=

6. Synoptic Reports

7. Upper Air Observations

8. Satellite Observations

9. Radar Observations

10. Model Guidance

12. More Model Guidance Even the LAMP forecast loses skill after 8-10 hours...

13. Verifications

14. Scores

15. Up close and personal

16. Lessons Learned  Erie is a breezy place…it is easy for the wind to gust >20kts – exposure is good  A steady, persistent wind from the south at night, when the PBL decouples, will lead to divergence along the south shoreline and dissipation of echoes as they approach.  A due south wind has a marginal amount of a downslope component and can impede dewpoint rises!

17. Erie Temperatures – 18z  T1 <500  T1 530  T1 560  T1 590 A  T1 620 B  T1 650 C  T1 680 D  T1 710 E  T1 740  T1 770  T1 >800  18z/250

18. Erie Temperatures – 00z  T2 <460  T2 490  T2 520  T2 550 A  T2 580 B  T2 610 C  T2 640 D  T2 670 E  T2 700  T2 730  T2 >760  00z/260

19. Erie Temperatures – 06z  T3 <450  T3 480  T3 510  T3 540 A  T3 570 B  T3 600 C  T3 630 D  T3 660 E  T3 690  T3 720  T3 >750  06z/260

20. Erie Temperatures – 12z  T4 <440  T4 470  T4 500  T4 530 A  T4 560 B  T4 590 C  T4 620 D  T4 650 E  T4 680  T4 710  T4 >740  12z/260

21. POP Category Probability of Precip POP1 – 18-0z  A.)0-20  B.) 21-40  C.) 41-60  D.) 61-80  E.) 81-100

22. POP Category Probability of Precip POP2 – 6-12z  A.)0-20  B.) 21-40  C.) 41-60  D.) 61-80  E.) 81-100

23. Amt Category QPF Precip Amount: 18z/25- 12z/26  A.)None - Trace  B.).01-.10”  C.).11-.25”  D.).26-.50”  E.) >.50”

24. % Time Category 0-12z/26  A.)0-20  B.) 21-40  C.) 41-60  D.) 61-80  E.) 81-100

25. Dewpoint at 00z/26  Td <380  Td410  Td440  Td470 A  Td500 B  Td530 C  Td560 D  Td590 E  Td620  Td650  Td >680  00z/260

26. Wind Direction at 00z/26  Wind Dir361-0300  Wind Dir031-0600  Wind Dir061-0900  Wind Dir091-1200  Wind Dir121-1500 A  Wind Dir151-1800 B  Wind Dir181-2100 C  Wind Dir211-2400 D  Wind Dir241-2700 E  Wind Dir271-3000  Wind Dir301-3300  Wind Dir331-3600  Wind DirVRBL0  00z/260

27. Wind Speed at 00z/26  Wind Speed<5kt 0 A  Wind Speed5-10kt 0 B  Wind Speed11-15kt 0 C  Wind Speed16-20kt 0 D  Wind Speed21-25kt 0 E  Wind Speed26-30kt 0  Wind Speed31-35kt 0  Wind Speed36-40kt 0  Wind Speed41-45kt 0  Wind Speed46-50kt 0  Wind Speed>50kt 0  00z/26 0

28. Cloud Cover -  Cloud Cover  18-0z/25-26  A.)0-20  B.) 21-40  C.) 41-60  D.) 61-80  E.) 81-100

29. Events  Any Cb0  Liquid >=0.35"0  Vis <=3miles (4500m)0  Vis <=5miles (7500m)0  Thunderstorm0  Lightning 0  Gusts >=20kts0  Gusts >=25kts0  Ceiling <=2,000ft0  Ceiling <=1,000ft0  Liquid >=0.15"0  Temp >=70F (21C)0  Vis <=1 mile (1500m)0  Wx from 18z/25-12z/26 A=0-20 B=21=40 C=41-60 D=61-80 E=81-100