2. A Model to Evaluate Recreational Management Measures Objective I – Stock Assessment Analysis Create a model to distribute estimated landings (A + B1 fish) by size class. Create a model to distribute estimated catch (A + B1 +B2 fish) by size class

3. A Model to Evaluate Recreational Management Measures Objective II – Estimates of landings and catch for different proposed recreational fishery regulations Size limits Possession limits Abundance

4. Summer Flounder Size Class 2011

5. I. Logistic Analysis The logit model where multiple possible outcomes exist can be extended to a multinomial model referred to as a generalized or baseline-category logit model of the form (McFadden, 1974): Log(Pr(Y=i|x)/Pr(Y=k+1|x)) = α i + β’ i xi = 1,....,k α i = the intercept parameters, and β i = the vector of the slope parameters.

6. Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates for the Probability that a Fish will be Landed in a Given Size Category Extra-Fishery Variables Parameter DF Estimate Standard Wald Error Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq sfldp 1 -0.83730.0477308.1836<.0001 FPPI 1 0.00340.000272156.1948<.0001 pr 1 0.07020.00567153.3822<.0001 NP 1 7.46E-092.71E-097.5450.006 NPd 1 -0.47410.048894.5362<.0001 omega3 1 -0.18240.039721.0956<.0001

7. Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates for the Probability that a Fish will be Landed in a Given Size Category Recreational Fishing Experience Variables Parameter DF Estimate Standard Wald Error Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq Weight1 -12.25330.041886011.0892<.0001 TotSFL 1 0.0000366.19E-0633.7463<.0001 SSB 1 -8.86E-062.03E-0619.0343<.0001 PARTY 1 -0.002680.00062118.646<.0001

8. Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates for the Probability that a Fish will be Landed in a Given Size Category Regulatory Variables Parameter DF Estimate Standard Wald Error Chi-Square Pr > ChiSq minsLm 1 -0.02110.0132.61740.1057 minslmi 1 0.02870.0049733.3697<.0001 PosLmt 1 0.002310.001532.2790.1311 ARecTrgt 1 -0.002140.00029651.966<.0001

9. Numbers of Summer Flounder Landed Minimum Size = 16 Possession Limit = 3 StATotnszclnszcl11nszcl12nszcl13nszcl14nszcl15nszcl16nszcl17nszcl18nszcl19nszcl20nszcl21nszcl22nszcl23nszcl24nszcl25 CT6105400000198211331267437270944643180 DE434040001950361290819581179532388147600 MA1349790001637273232825969786452576318837310 MD268060000425181147611036121681799113400 NC480393161036505135163291907558218366440000 NJ9512860021091529385432267297157509018101445665225650 NY5263180000000232469820715434334165220717891 RI109727000001548668882559137386392357452 VA266436003171518786253440941518535755053103151200 Coastwi de Total2168049316108679539617850300118902650826569736624132321153834479120776893

10. II. Quick Assessment Method The first model (m1) predicts the number of fish landed (Type A + B1 fish) in a state that have been intercepted, identified, measured, and in some cases weighted by observers (TotSFLnmbr). The second model (m2) predicts the total number of fish (Type A+B1+B2 fish) reported to observers by anglers who did not necessarily allow them to be identified, measured, and weighted by observers (TotSFLnd).

11. M1: Parameters of Interest Variable Parameter EstimateStandard ErrorF ValuePr > F Offshore Minimum Size limit 0.839480.016132710.07<.0001 Inshore Minimum Size Limit -0.254230.00801003.64<.0001 Possession Limit Offshore 0.396670.012341034.15<.0001 Possession Limit Inshore -0.314160.007841604.92<.0001 Open Season -0.178280.00640776.85<.0001

12. QAM: Scatter Plot Two scatter plots at the end of the program provide a comparison of the actual and predicted values of these two dependent variables. These plots indicate that most predicted values fall within narrow bands around the actual values of the variables; this reflects the coefficient of determination of 76.7 and 76.8 percent, respectively.

14. Summer flounder recreational management measures by state, 2012.

15. Estimated Landed and Caught StateLandedCaught MA39.116106.159 RI213.724516.305 CT182.143273.405 NY224.219800.370 NJ417.6041034.970 DE250.582526.213 MD51.9624150.618 VA230.185485.789 NC273.608354.256 Coast Wide1883.1464218.085

16. Fluke MRIP 2012 Number of Fish STATE123456 Grand TotalSum W1-4 % W1-4 from 2011Proj Total MASSACHUSETTS 1971756503 76,220 56.47%134,981 RHODE ISLAND 6029942987103,286 94.13%109,727 CONNECTICUT 120524900461,056 100.00%61,056 NEW YORK 0196649291676488,325 92.78%526,319 NEW JERSEY 0361997566851928,848 97.64%951,286 DELAWARE 074922888736,379 83.81%43,404 MARYLAND 8871599516,882 62.98%26,806 VIRGINIA 4299577605132149252,749 94.85%266,473 NORTH CAROLINA701706193861088732,049 66.71%48,039 1,995,794 2,168,092 2,168

17. Proposed Regulations Season length = 153 days Abundance = 60074 Possession Limit = 3, 4, and 5 fish Minimum Size Limit = 16 and 17 inches Landed = A + B1 fish Caught = A + B1 + B2 fish Inshore Regulations = Offshore Regulations

18. Numbers of Coast Wide Fish Landed (A + B1) and Caught (A + B1 + B2) (000 of fish) Minimum Size Possession LimitNumbers LandedNumbers Caught (inches)(number of fish) (Type A+B1)(Type A+B1+B2) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1631585 3715 16417774032 16519414296 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17316683750 17418703982 17520434530

19. Summary This model is a simple application of time proven methods of dealing with imperfect information in a marketplace or natural environment. While the concepts are simple, their actual application is complex. A step by step user guide is provided in the appendix attached. The programs in steps I to VII are used if the existing data set is to be modified for another species of recreationally harvested fish. These steps will update the database needed to estimate a new sets of coefficients for use in a policy analysis of any existing or proposed fishery management regulations.