1. TRANSPORT – MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION Tamás Fleischer Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/ tfleisch@vki.hu Climate Change 2007: Implications for Hungary AR4 – key insights – an IPCC Outreach Event Central European University, Budapest, April 10-11, 2008

2. 4 Mitigation: decreasing the emissions (decreasing the driving forces of the climate change). It suppose known reasons, known relations, known target 4 Adaptation: 4 posterior adaptation: reaction to changes already happened 4 preventive adaptation: to improve capability of resistance / of survival of future changes 4 flexibility, buffers, reserves, redundancies, diversity, 4 Characteristics that are not „efficient” or „uniform” or „optimal” etc. 4 („Post-modern” versus „modern” values) Transport – mitigation and adaptation

3. Source: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC TAR Vol II. indirect source: Smit et al 1999. Mitigation and adaptation as policy answers Mitigation and adaptation

4. Usual (also IPCC) mitigation approach 4 The myth of the negative feedback loop Expectation: the more technology, the less emission / CC 4 Experience: the more technology – increasing emission 4 Behaves rather like a positive feedback loop (transport) sector emissions technology

5. Usual (also IPCC) mitigation approach 4 „Fuel economy regulations have been effective in slowing the growth of GHG emissions, but so far growth of transport activity has overwhelmed their impact.” (AR4) 4 What happened? 4 Misleading message to the user: „technology can solve the problem, you don’t have to change anything” 4 Transport: target: to gain time => higher speed => no time gain, but bigger distance covered => (+higher emission) 4 The cumulated social result differs from the direct one

6. IPCC mitigation approach 4 The non-technical solutions 4 From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not „mitigation” (transport) sector emissions regulations, prices, emissions trade etc.

7. IPCC mitigation approach 4 The non-technical solutions 4 From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not „mitigation” (Adaptation to new regulatory environment) (transport) sector emissions regulations, prices, emissions trade etc. (transport) sector

8. IPCC mitigation approach 4 The non-technical solutions 4 From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not „mitigation” (Adaptation to new regulatory environment) 4 How to make the feedback even more back to policy level? (transport) sector emissions regulations, prices, emissions trade etc. (transport) sector

9. IPCC four basic storylines or scenario families

10. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2

11. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 Local, fragmented, regional world Global, converged, connected world

12. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 Economic priority, efficiency, market based world, competition Environment, equity, participative decisions, co-operation Local, fragmented, regional world Global, converged, connected world

13. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global

14. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global A1 ‘global market’ no state intervention, global competition, capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world, technology development

15. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global A1 ‘global market’ no state intervention, global competition, capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world, technology development B1 ‘global co-operation’ social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development [WEU]

16. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global A1 ‘global market’ no state intervention, global competition, capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world, technology development B1 ‘global co-operation’ social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development [WEU] A2 ‘regional market’ protectionist, anti-global system of efficient local markets, based on limited range TNCs rather than states good local connections

17. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global A1 ‘global market’ no state intervention, global competition, capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world, technology development B1 ‘global co-operation’ social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development [WEU] A2 ‘regional market’ protectionist, anti-global system of efficient local markets, based on limited range TNCs rather than states good local connections B2 ‘regional co-operation’ intra-regional redistribution, equity and environment-friendly development directed by regional institutions, Harmony with SD principles: regional production, -trade, -employment; regional institutions and -governance.

18. 4 2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global A1 ‘global market’ sustainability targets subordinated to efficiency, priority to supply side infrastructure of road transport, sever profitability criteria for public transport, decreasing service level in space and time, transport policy determined by lobby groups

19. 4 2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global A1 ‘global market’ sustainability targets subordinated to efficiency, priority to supply side infrastructure of road transport, sever profitability criteria for public transport, decreasing service level in space and time, transport policy determined by lobby groups B2 ‘regional co-operation’ integrated urban, spatial and transport policy, integrated modal policy, innovative local shuttle services, priority to PT, congestion price, local calming, in rural areas integrated goods and passenger transport

20. 4 2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global A1 ‘global market’ sustainability targets subordinated to efficiency, priority to supply side infrastructure of road transport, sever profitability criteria for public transport, decreasing service level in space and time, transport policy determined by lobby groups B1 ‘global co-operation’ top-down elaborated legal and institutional changes, support sustainable scenarios at national and international level, eliminate regional inequalities A2 ‘regional market’ B2 ‘regional co-operation’ integrated urban, spatial and transport policy, integrated modal policy, innovative local shuttle services, priority to PT, congestion price, local calming, in rural areas integrated goods and passenger transport

21. 4 While technology is very important to promote mitigation, without a proper wider context it may lead to more emissions instead of less. 4 The adaptation scenario is not just necessary, but also represent a different and multidimensional approach of risk management 4 From the IPCC scenarios ‘B2’ and „B1” dispose of values fitting pro-sustainability, and can present a multi-dimensional world 4 B1 ‘global co-operation’ scenario shows a kind of „world-wide union” approach for a global, bureaucratic, centrally governed co- operation – somewhat contradicting to certain values of sustainability 4 B2 ‘regional co-operation’ scenario is a regionally organised world with strong internal connections within the single unites and secondary connections between those unites. This form of governance seems to fit best to sustainability principles, while more moderated in globalisation Transport – mitigation and adaptation

22. TRANSPORT – MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION Tamás Fleischer Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/ tfleisch@vki.hu Climate Change 2007: Implications for Hungary AR4 – key insights – an IPCC Outreach Event Central European University, Budapest, April 10-11, 2008 THANKS FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION !