1. Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien xx naki@iiasa.ac.at Congress on Climate Change, Plenary Session (Theme 3) on Reducing the Risks of Climate Change: Opportunities for Mitigation, Copenhagen — 11 March 2009 Towards Complete Decarbonization The World in Transition

2. Nakicenovic # 2 2009 World Primary Energy

3. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Global Mean Temperatures are Rising 100 0.074  0.018 50 0.128  0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate Years  /decade

4. ●Sustainable access to energy and food (a prerequisite for reaching MDGs) ●Security and reliability of systems ●Deep CO 2 and GHG reductions ●Investment in R&D and deployment ●Climate, Economy, Investment Crises Global Change Challenges

5. Nakicenovic # 5 2009 Food for a Week, Darfur Refugees, Chad © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY Source: Menzel, 2005

6. Nakicenovic # 6 2009 Food for a Week, Germany © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY Source: Menzel, 2005

7. Two Faces of the Athropocene Astronaut Sunita Williams

8. Nakicenovic # 8 2009 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 180018251850187519001925195019752000 Pounds (2000 £)/ m lumen-hours Gaslight Kerosene-light Electric-light 0 50 100 150 200 250 190019101920193019401950 Trillion lumen-hours Electric-light Gaslight Price Energy service The Example of Lighting 0 50 100 150 200 250 190019101920193019401950 Trillion lumen-hours Electric-light Gaslight United Kingdom Source: Fouguet and Pearson, 2003

9. Nakicenovic # 9 2009 Global Primary Energy – A2r

10. Nakicenovic # 10 2009 Global Primary Energy – B1

11. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Surface Temperature Change AOGCM projections for illustrative SRES scenarios

12. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Long-Term Stabilization Profiles ~$100/tCO 2 A2 B1

13. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Global warming ( o C) A2 B1 B1 450 Vulnerability of Key Sectors Australia and New Zealand

14. Nakicenovic # 14 2009 Global Mitigation Challenges Significant mitigation potential by 2030 at carbon price up to about $100/tCO 2 (~$370/tC ≡ $50/bbl) Significant mitigation potential by 2030 at carbon price up to about $100/tCO 2 (~$370/tC ≡ $50/bbl) Technological change essential for reducing mitigation costs and increasing potentials Technological change essential for reducing mitigation costs and increasing potentials “Upfront” investments reduce longer-term mitigation costs and increase potentials “Upfront” investments reduce longer-term mitigation costs and increase potentials Investment in RD&D and diffusion reduce mitigation costs Investment in RD&D and diffusion reduce mitigation costs

15. Nakicenovic # 15 2009 2050 Emissions and Probability of 2C Based on Forest et al CS PDF Optimal target Feasibility frontier Not attainable economically less desirable Source: Riahiet al., 2008 Source: Riahi, et al., 2008

16. Nakicenovic # 16 2009 2050 Emissions and Probability of 3C Not attainable economically less desirable Optimal target Feasibility frontier Probability of staying below 3ºC (2100) Based on Forest et al CS PDF Source: Riahiet al., 2008 Source: Riahi, et al., 2008

17. Nakicenovic # 17 2009 *) maximum temperature change over the 21 st century assuming 3 climate sensitivity *) maximum temperature change over the 21 st century assuming 3C climate sensitivity 2.0 o C* 3.0 o C4.0 o C4.5 o C Share of Carbon-Free Energy

18. Nakicenovic # 18 2009 Energy Supply Investments Supply Side Only *) maximum temperature change over the 21 st century assuming 3 climate sensitivity *) maximum temperature change over the 21 st century assuming 3C climate sensitivity 2.0 o C* 3.0 o C4.0 o C4.5 o C

19. Nakicenovic # 19 2009 *) maximum temperature change over the 21 st century assuming 3 climate sensitivity *) maximum temperature change over the 21 st century assuming 3C climate sensitivity 2.0 o C* 3.0 o C4.0 o C4.5 o C Energy Systems Investments Supply Side and End Use

20. Nakicenovic # 20 2009 Government R&D in IEA countries in billion US$ (2006) Source: Doornboschet al., 2008 Source: Doornbosch, et al., 2008

21. Nakicenovic # 21 2009 History of US Federal Government R&D JFK Apollo Program Carter Energy Program Reagan “Star Wars” Program Homeland Security

22. Nakicenovic # 22 2009 Bank lending to energy-sector and total bank lending to emerging markets Energy sector bank lending Total bank lending $ billions * As of September Energy is one-third of total international bank financing Source: World Bank, 2009

23. ●The magnitude of the change required in the global energy system will be huge ●The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses simultaneously climate change, security, equity and economics issues. ●Paradigm change is needed: radical improvements in energy end-use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage. ●Needs to be globally integrated but with maximum support of countries and local levels. ●In the best spirit of science: fact-based and peer- reviewed 23 www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future

24. Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis and its international partners present and its international partners present www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org