Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

1 Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality David M. Hondula 1,2, Matei Georgescu 2, Robert C. Balling, Jr. 2 1.

Published byMaximillian Pruden Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "1 Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality David M. Hondula 1,2, Matei Georgescu 2, Robert C. Balling, Jr. 2 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality David M. Hondula 1,2, Matei Georgescu 2, Robert C. Balling, Jr. 2 1 Center for Policy Informatics 2 School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning 2 nd International UGEC Conference Taipei, Taiwan November 2014

2 2 Maricopa County, Arizona Part of 12th largest metro area in U.S. (2012 pop: 3.9 M) Mean monthly high temperatures: –June: 40ºC/104ºF –July: 41ºC/106ºF –August: 40ºC/104ºF

3 3 Heat-health impacts in Maricopa County HeatAZ.com (Maricopa County Dept. of Public Health)

4 4 Urbanization: A key climate forcing Georgescu et al. 2013, Nature Climate Change SunCorrHi Scenario

5 5 Urbanization: A key climate forcing Georgescu et al. 2013, Nature Climate Change SunCorrHi vs. B1 2040-2060 SunCorrLow vs. A2 2040-2060

6 6 Contrasting observed diurnal temperature trends and the “oasis effect” Georgescu et al. 2013, Nature Climate Change; Georgescu et al. 2011, JGR Urban site Rural site

7 7 Study Framework Max Temp Mean Temp Min Temp Moving averages SunCorrHi SunCorrLow SunCorrAdapt Urbanization scenario Exposure variable Projections of future heat-related mortality

8 8 Urbanization Effects on Temperature “Max” “Min”“Mean” Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

9 9 Temperature-Mortality Model Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

10 10 Temperature-Mortality Model Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

11 11 Calculation of Excess Mortality 0 2040 60 80 Day of Summer 48 49 50 Daily Mortality June 7 Observed temp. (°C)43.5 Baseline mortality50.04 RR Mortality at given temperature 1.017 Predicted excess mortality 0.862 Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

12 12 Synthetic Future Temperature Time Series Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

13 13 Projections of urbanization-induced heat- related mortality for greater Phoenix Hondula et al. 2014 Science of the Total Environment Max Mean Min +205 deaths/yr -46 deaths/yr

14 14 Projections of urbanization-induced heat- related mortality for greater Phoenix Hondula et al. 2014 Science of the Total Environment Max Mean Min

15 15 Conclusions Urbanization may contribute to future changes in heat-related mortality Projections highly sensitive to urbanization scenario and exposure variable choice Urban “oasis” effect in arid and semi-arid climates a potential mitigator of daytime heat stress Preference for low growth or adaptation strategies depends on key exposure variable

16 16 Acknowledgements ASU Piper Health Policy Informatics Initiative NSF EAR-1204774 Office of Vital Statistics, Arizona Department of Health Services ICB local and scientific committees

17 17 Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality David M. Hondula 1,2, Matei Georgescu 2, Robert C. Balling, Jr. 2 1 Center for Policy Informatics 2 School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning 2 nd International UGEC Conference Taipei, Taiwan November 2014

18 18 Projections of urbanization-induced heat- related mortality for greater Phoenix MaxMeanMin Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

19 19 Urbanization: A key climate forcing Georgescu et al. 2013, Nature Climate Change SunCorrHi Scenario SunCorrLow SunCorrAdapt

20 20 Urbanization Scenarios Georgescu et al. 2012, Envi. Res. Letters

21 21 Projections of urbanization-induced heat- related mortality for greater Phoenix Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

22 22 Projections of urbanization-induced heat- related mortality for greater Phoenix Hondula et al. 2014, Science of the Total Environment

Download ppt "1 Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality David M. Hondula 1,2, Matei Georgescu 2, Robert C. Balling, Jr. 2 1."

Similar presentations

The UK response: adaptation and mitigation strategies Professor Dame Sally C Davies Director General Research and Development Department of Health.

The UK response: adaptation and mitigation strategies Professor Dame Sally C Davies Director General Research and Development Department of Health.
Opioid-Related Deaths and Mortality Rates by County, Wisconsin Residents 2004-2012 Office of Health Informatics and AIDS/HIV and Hepatitis C Program Bureau.

Opioid-Related Deaths and Mortality Rates by County, Wisconsin Residents Office of Health Informatics and AIDS/HIV and Hepatitis C Program Bureau.
Beyond greenhouse gases – The importance of direct climate impacts associated with bioenergy expansion Matei Georgescu, Assistant Professor, School of.

Beyond greenhouse gases – The importance of direct climate impacts associated with bioenergy expansion Matei Georgescu, Assistant Professor, School of.
CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP – Adaptation Engineering Green Infrastructure in Mitigating Extreme Summer.

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP – Adaptation Engineering Green Infrastructure in Mitigating Extreme Summer.
Halûk Özkaynak US EPA, Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, RTP, NC Presented at the CMAS Special Symposium on Air.

Halûk Özkaynak US EPA, Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, RTP, NC Presented at the CMAS Special Symposium on Air.
Cost-effective dynamical downscaling: An illustration of downscaling CESM with the WRF model Jared H. Bowden and Saravanan Arunachalam 11 th Annual CMAS.

Cost-effective dynamical downscaling: An illustration of downscaling CESM with the WRF model Jared H. Bowden and Saravanan Arunachalam 11 th Annual CMAS.
A statistical method for calculating the impact of climate change on future air quality over the Northeast United States. Collaborators: Cynthia Lin, Katharine.

A statistical method for calculating the impact of climate change on future air quality over the Northeast United States. Collaborators: Cynthia Lin, Katharine.
Drought Preparedness with feedback from YOU Julie Kalansky April 8 th, 2015 Sonoma County Adaptation Forum.

Drought Preparedness with feedback from YOU Julie Kalansky April 8 th, 2015 Sonoma County Adaptation Forum.
How can the water footprint contribute to the formulation of a national climate change adaptation strategy? Adaptation Workshop, 2 nd Nov. 2011, Nicosia.

How can the water footprint contribute to the formulation of a national climate change adaptation strategy? Adaptation Workshop, 2 nd Nov. 2011, Nicosia.
Markus Amann The RAINS model: Modelling of health impacts of PM and ozone.

Markus Amann The RAINS model: Modelling of health impacts of PM and ozone.
Determination of Solar Cycle and Natural Climate Variation using both Surface Air/Soil Temperature and Thermal Diffusion Model Xiquan Dong (Atmospheric.

Determination of Solar Cycle and Natural Climate Variation using both Surface Air/Soil Temperature and Thermal Diffusion Model Xiquan Dong (Atmospheric.
Heat-Related Mortality in Washington State: Past and Future The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment Conference February 12, 2009 J. Elizabeth.

Heat-Related Mortality in Washington State: Past and Future The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment Conference February 12, 2009 J. Elizabeth.
1 Maryland: Observed and Model Simulated Climate Change. Temperature, Precipitation & Theirs Variability Dr. Konstantin Vinnikov, Acting State Climatologist.

1 Maryland: Observed and Model Simulated Climate Change. Temperature, Precipitation & Theirs Variability Dr. Konstantin Vinnikov, Acting State Climatologist.
Summer fog variability in the coast redwood region: climatic relevance and ecological implications James A. Johnstone Department of Environmental Science,

Summer fog variability in the coast redwood region: climatic relevance and ecological implications James A. Johnstone Department of Environmental Science,
Science Based Policy for Addressing Energy and Environmental Problems Robert Sawyer Class of 1935 Professor of Energy Emeritus University of California.

Science Based Policy for Addressing Energy and Environmental Problems Robert Sawyer Class of 1935 Professor of Energy Emeritus University of California.
Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area Matei Georgescu Center for Environmental Prediction – Rutgers University The Fourth Symposium.

Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area Matei Georgescu Center for Environmental Prediction – Rutgers University The Fourth Symposium.
Science Based Policy for Addressing Energy and Environmental Problems Robert Sawyer Class of 1935 Professor of Energy Emeritus University of California.

Science Based Policy for Addressing Energy and Environmental Problems Robert Sawyer Class of 1935 Professor of Energy Emeritus University of California.
Maryland Climate, Past ~100 yrs Max & Min Surface Air Temperature: Observed Trends in Averages and Variability Dr. Konstantin Vinnikov, Acting State Climatologist.

Maryland Climate, Past ~100 yrs Max & Min Surface Air Temperature: Observed Trends in Averages and Variability Dr. Konstantin Vinnikov, Acting State Climatologist.
1 Zsolt HARNOS BUESPA Department of Mathematics and Informatics Potential impact of climate change on wheat production in Hungary June 28-July 2, 2004.

1 Zsolt HARNOS BUESPA Department of Mathematics and Informatics Potential impact of climate change on wheat production in Hungary June 28-July 2, 2004.
Darren Ruddell Arizona State University American Meteorological Society Urban Implications of Climate Change and Population Growth 15 January 2009 Scales.

Darren Ruddell Arizona State University American Meteorological Society Urban Implications of Climate Change and Population Growth 15 January 2009 Scales.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google