1. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009

2. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Modeling of Atmospheric Chemistry Presented by Larry Horowitz Presented by Larry Horowitz

3. 3 3 Outline Sequential coupling of chemistry and climate –Methodology –Uncertainties Synthesizing models and observations Stratospheric ozone chemistry “Full” coupling of chemistry and climate

4. 4 (Horowitz, 2006) 1860 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Historical A2 A1B B1 A1FI Global Emissions NO x (TgN/yr) SO 2 (Tg/yr) Black Carbon (Tg/yr) Tropospheric Column (2000) Ozone (DU) Sulfate (mg/m 2 ) Black Carbon (mg/m 2 ) Concentrations estimated with MOZART CTM (neglecting climate feedbacks) Direct radiative forcing in climate model (CM2) “Off-line” Coupling of Chemistry and Climate

5. 5 CCSP SAP 3.2 Levy et al. (2008) Multiple Uncertainties in Climate Impact of Aerosols Methodologies for black carbon: Scaled to CO emissions Estimates by D. Streets Scaled to SO 2 emissions Emission Projections (A1B scenario) SO 2 Black carbon Emissions Concentrations MOZART Aerosol Optical Depth CM2.1 Radiation/Climate CM2.1

6. 6 ICARTT field campaign, Summer 2004 Synthesizing Models and Field Observations Isoprene OH RO 2 NO RONO 2 (isoprene nitrates) NO 2 Ozone RONO 2 (ppbv) Slow dry dep High NO x recycling Low NO x recycling 4%8% (Horowitz et al., 2007) Constraints on highly uncertain isoprene chemistry Significant implications for ozone concentrations

7. 7 Antarctic Arctic Minimum ozone column (DU) for each spring season Decline and Recovery of Polar Ozone

8. 8 Aim: Develop model to allow investigation into coupled chemistry-climate-air quality issues AM3, the atmospheric component of GFDL’s CM3 climate model for IPCC AR5, includes: “On-line” tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry and aerosols Wet deposition in large-scale precipitation, convective updrafts, and mesoscale circulations Chemical feedbacks on climate through direct and indirect radiative effects Recent Developments: Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Climate Model

9. 9 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009