1. Peak Oil, Climate Change, and Energy Alternatives Professor Leonard Rodberg Department of Urban Studies Office Powdermaker Rm 250A Email leonard.rodberg@qc.cuny.eduleonard.rodberg@qc.cuny.edu Telephone 718-997-5134 Global Climate Change and Public Policy

2. US Oil Production and Imports 2004

3. The Time Course of Production of any Non-renewal Resource according to M. King Hubbert

4. It Gets Harder and Harder to Find Oil

5. Hubbert Curve for US Oil Production - 1956

6. US Oil Production and Imports 2004

7. The Paper that Started It All… *Publication No. 95, Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research Division, Houston, Texas **Chief Consultant (General Geology).

8. World Energy Use by Fuel

9. Hubbert Curve for World Oil Production - 1956

10. The Decline of New Oil Discoveries

11. Oil Production Worldwide

12. The Optimists’ View

13. Taking the Long View: The History of the Human Race according to M. King Hubbert

14. It’s Getting Warmer

15. And the Sea Level is Rising

16. Greenhouse Effect

17. What are the Greenhouse Gases? Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Principal Source: Burning of Fossil Fuels: Oil, natural gas/methane, coal Hydrocarbons (C n H m) ) + Oxygen (O 2 )  CO 2 + H 2 O Also Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

18. The Concentration of CO2 is Growing

19. GHG Trends 1970-2004

20. Radiative Forcing Components Carbon, and Fossil Fuels, are the Culprit

21. The Long View CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O Concentrations - far exceed pre-industrial values - increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities Relatively little variation before the industrial era Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change

22. At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include: –Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, –Widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns –and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones Direct Observation of Recent Climate Change

23. Declining Sea Ice http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming- basics/facts_and_figures/impacts/lateseaice.cfm

24. Impacts Worldwide GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning Signs Fingerprints and Harbingers Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather Sea level rise and coastal flooding Glaciers melting Arctic and Antarctic warming Spreading disease Earlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and population declines Coral reef bleaching Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Droughts and fires www.climatehotmap.org

25. Natural gas causes more global warming but less air pollution mortality than coal over 150 years due to less sulfate (a cooling agent) and more methane (a warming agent) from natural gas than coal. Coal causes higher mortality. 50-70 times more CO2 and air pollution per kWh than wind Hydrofracking causes land and water supply degradation Why Not Natural Gas?

26. 9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from mining & refining uranium, using fossil fuels for electricity during the 11-19 years to permit (6-10 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with 2-5 years for a wind or solar farm Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted) Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation Unresolved waste issues Why Not Nuclear?

27. Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air pollution as gasoline -- Corn E85: 90-200% of CO 2 emissions of gasoline -- Cellulosic E85: 50-150% of CO 2 emissions of gasoline Wind: <1% of CO 2 emissions as gasoline Enormous land use and water requirements Why Not Ethanol?

28. U.S. Carbon Stabilization via Wedges Source: Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p. 57

29. Wind Electricity Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power. Today: 50,000 MW (1/40) Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association) Wind Electricity

30. Photovoltaic Power

31. Electricity Nuclear Site: Surry station, James River, VA; 1625 MW since 1972-73. Credit: Dominion. A revised goal: retrievable storage Natural-U plants (no enrichment), no reprocessing Universal rules and international governance Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge. Nuclear Electricity Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: 700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power.

32. Biofuels

33. Efficient Use of Electricity lighting motorscogeneration Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:. 25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in commercial and residential buildings Target commercial and multifamily buildings. Efficient Use of Electricity

34. Efficient Use of Fuel Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1 ton of carbon. 2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg. 2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year. Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl Efficient Use of Fuel

35. Carbon Storage Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins Sleipner project, offshore Norway Carbon Storage Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: 3500 Sleipners @1 MtCO 2 /yr 100 x U.S. CO 2 injection rate for EOR A flow of CO 2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today

36. Reforestation and Land Conservation

37. NYC Energy Profile 1979

38. Saving Energy in NYC Source: L. Rodberg and G. Stokes, The Village Voice, Feb. 18, 1980

39. PlaNYC Mitigation Measures

40. PlaNYC Wedges

41. Planning for a Major Hurricane

42. Both Adaptation and Mitigation: Mayor’s PlaNYC Adapts to Some Inevitable Climate Change Protect our city’s vital infrastructure Work with vulnerable neighborhoods to develop site-specific strategies Launch a citywide strategic planning process for climate change adaptation