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OUTLOOK FOR LATVIA ENERGY, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS 29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen Janis Rekis Latvian Investment and Development Agency
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GHG emissions Energy consumption Outlook
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GHG emissions
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Latvian GHG emissions trend by gas excluding LUCF, Gg & %
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Latvian GHG emission trend by sector gases excluding LUCF, Gg & %
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GHG emission trend in energy sector by sub sector and gas, Gg & %
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Energy consumption
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GDP, GEC (TPES) and GHG indexes Indexes of energy and GHG intensities
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Gross energy consumption (GEC), PJ & %
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Structure of GEC in 2002, % Local energy sources
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RES share in GEC and RES-E share in gross electricity consumption
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Energy consumption in transformation, PJ
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Consumption of DH, PJ
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Final Energy Consumption, PJ & %
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Fuel prices, US$(1994)/MWh
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Forest density in administrative regions
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Scenarios
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GHG emission forecast according 3rd National Communication, Gg ???
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Forecast of GDP
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CO2 emissions in energy sector, Gg different growth rates for useful energy demand Annual growth of (1999-2034) ScenarioDM1DM2DM4DM6 Useful energy demand1.2%1.4%1.7%2.1% Electricity consumption1.4%2.1%2.8%3.8%
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Gross energy consumption in DM2, PJ
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Final energy consumption in DM2, PJ
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Required additional RES-E, TWh with RES-E target 49.3%
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CO 2 reduction, Gg with RES-E target 49.3%
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CO2 in energy sector in DM2 case, Gg (1) with CO2 emission constraint Allowed cumulative CO2 emissions in energy sector for 45 years (1992-2036), Gg without constraint +30% above stabilization412542 +15% above stabilization375896 stabilization in level 2000 after 2001339250
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CO2 emissions from energy sector, Gg (2) with CO2 emission constraint
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CO2 emissions from energy sector, Gg (3) deterministic cases vs. stochastic cases
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