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Lubëck Octobre 2003 Patrice SALINI Michel KARSKY Simtrans & Simtrans-Co2 A freight transportation simulation model An emission permit policy analysis.

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Presentation on theme: "Lubëck Octobre 2003 Patrice SALINI Michel KARSKY Simtrans & Simtrans-Co2 A freight transportation simulation model An emission permit policy analysis."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Lubëck Octobre 2003 Patrice SALINI Michel KARSKY Simtrans & Simtrans-Co2 A freight transportation simulation model An emission permit policy analysis tool

3 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 2 SimTrans & Simtrans-Co2  To model  To apply  To convince

4 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 3 To model  Simtrans (developed in 1999-2000) An attempt to analyze the dynamics of the freight transportation market in France (Road, Rail, Inland waterways) Funded as a Research Program

5 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 4 To apply  SimTrans-Co2 (2001-2002) Explore the consequences of the Kyoto protocol and the implementation of an emission credit trade system Commissioned by ADEME (National Environmental Agency)

6 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 5 To convince  Use of a posteriori causal loop diagrams for long term analyses

7 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 6 To model  Simtrans is focused on land transportation and modal split  3 sectors Road Rail Inland Waterways

8 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 7 To model  A Modal supply is a combination of Means (Capacity) Productivity Quality

9 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 8 To model Means (Capacity) ProductivityQuality

10 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 9 To model  Modal split as a result of competition between different attractiveness  Attractiveness as a result of means, productivity and quality levels

11 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 10 To model Agriculturalproducts Metallurgicalproducts Globaldemand Food Constructionmaterials Otherproducts Chemicals & Fertilizers Energycomponents General menu Demand menu

12 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 11 To apply + Simtrans + an analysis of the effect of the Kyoto protocol

13 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 12 To apply  The Kyoto protocol aims at reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases responsible for global warming  In EU, the transportation sector is to blame for 28% of emissions of CO2  CO2 emissions from transportation are expected to increase by around 50% by 2010

14 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 13 Source : GRID-Arendal in co-operation with the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the 7th Conference of the Parties (COP-7) to the Convention, held in Marrakesh, Morocco 29th October to 9th November 2001.

15 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 14 To apply  SimTrans-Co2 explores a C0 2 emission reduction trade system for trucks (inside the EU “Bubble”)

16 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 15 To apply Fuel consumption ProductivityCapacity Unit fuel consumption Investment Emission regulations and norms Co2 emitted Negociable emission permits Taxation Warming effect policy Fuel unit cost + - + + + + ++ + - - + + + Simplified causal diagram of Co2 and Emission Permit a

17 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 16 Co2 Emission (ton) 1998 Emission trading has no impact To apply 2003200920142020 20 000 000 30 000 000 40 000 000 1. No action 2. Emission credit 3. Gobal policy package 1 2 3

18 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 17 To convince Feedback loop analysis

19 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 18 To convince Feedback loop analysis -

20 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 19 To convince Feedback loop analysis +

21 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 20 To convince Feedback loop analysis +

22 http://www.kbs-simulation.com 21 To convince Feedback loop analysis -

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